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ichkeria | 18:08 Sat 15th Oct 2022 | News
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The big push towards Kherson has evidently started.

Shelling by Ukrainian artillery all along the front line

Meanwhile, the Kerch bridge won't be repaired until July 2023, says Russia.
They may not need it by then :-)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63255611
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Thanks! listening to Putin the other night I got the impression he is sort of easing off the threatening mode a little and looking for a way out. Am I right or wrong?
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Rumours are he wants a ceasefire and is willing to cede Kherson.
He can, of course, do one there.

He was humiliated by the president of Tajikistan in Astana, who told him off for treating his country like a client state - which I’m sorry to say is exactly what it was - but these countries sense weakness now.
Thanks Ich, I love your updates
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The other thing is, there is activity to the north of Ukraine, in Belarus: Russian forces have been moving into Gomel, presumably with a view to heading for the border with Ukraine.
Also, Belarusian troops have been on the move too, although most people think Lukashenka will not risk sending his boys in as it might spark a rebellion. Many Belarusians already fight with Ukraine.
The term "Russian forces" is perhaps slightly misleading: it's apparently new recruits. While it may be useful as some sort of diversionary tactic, the prospect of this lot succeeding where the original Russian army failed would appear to be less than zero.
I have a young friend living in Gomel
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They'd just be transiting. And would presumably sit at the border, thus tying up some Ukrainian forces from going to actual battles eleswhere.
The same thing happened to in the NW of Ukraine, in Volhynia, for a time.
However as far as I know the latest 10,000 properly trained Ukrainian recruits have arrived from the UK now. With tens of thousands more to come.
Some of the stories coming from the Russian lines are absolutely terrible: 300 from one detachment attempting to surrender but being forbidden to by their commander: so they shot him, and surrendered anyway, along with all their equipment.
The sooner the Russians realise they are in the wrong, and attacking their Ukrainian cousins because of false claims, and return all occupied lands, and go home to have a 'word' with their leader(s), the better.
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The scary thing for me is the way Russia has mobilised: not because it poses any sort of a threat to Ukraine, but because it looks suspiciously like ethnic cheansing: the current assessed statistical death rate for Russian troops in Ukraine is over 50%: and does Putin really want all survicing defeated troops returning to Russia and telling the truth?
Why did he not try to stop most of the 700,000 who fled mobilisation from leaving the country? Better out than in?
What this war has shown us is how very, very different Russians and Ukrainians actually are. The former put state before individual, to a dizzying degree. Not though to a suicidal extent on the part of the cannon fodder!
Let us hope that this is the beginning of Putin's downfall.

Despite what you've said previously Ich, I don't believe whoever comes after him will continue this madness. They will surely be looking for ways out.
Russians must be asking this question,although the answer is easy. What has Putin achieved alongside the deaths of thousands of Russians. NOTHING AT ALL. And damaged his own economy.
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Ukraine enforces media blackout in Kherson.
So something big happening
From 2 days ago, I don't know if it's already been mentioned. I lose track but that doesn't sound like he's backing down.

//Putin deploys 11 nuclear bombers just 20 miles from Nato border //

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/putin-deploys-11-nuclear-bombers-just-20-miles-from-nato-border-as-ukraine-tensi/
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I don’t think I there’s any suggestion Putin is backing off.
He’ll plough on until he is somehow persuaded internally to stop or he realises the game is up.
He is drastically weakened though
I believe that to be 'All hat and no cattle' as they say in Texas, naomi...in other words 'show' or what the French call 'le cinema'. I love that expression they use ' arrêtez le cinema'.
I wouldn't want to second guess him, DTC. Who knows what he might do?
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What Putin says and what Putin does are usually different.
He’d actually withdrawn troops from the borders with Finland and Norway to fight in Ukraine which says a lot.
Any talk of a ceasefire can only be a desperate tactical move. There’s no way on earth Ukraine would agree to that anyway. It would be like a burglar occupying the upper floor of your house and offering you back one of your bedrooms.
Meanwhile armed police are on their way to arrest him :-)
I think he knows that he will be ash in seconds....also if he pushes the button, the generals concerned won't obey the order.
'Since the success of Ukraine's massive counteroffensive in early September, Russian officials have repeatedly raised the possibility of peace talks — even after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree officially ruling out the possibility of Ukraine ever negotiating with Vladimir Putin. Meduza has learned from multiple sources close to the Russian government that the Kremlin has simultaneously been lobbying Western leaders behind closed doors to convince Kyiv to agree to a temporary ceasefire. But according to the sources, Putin has no intention of ending the war; instead, his ceasefire campaign is part of a wider strategy to buy time for training conscripts and replenishing supplies in order to launch a "full-scale offensive" in February or March.'

Meduza
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It needs to be understood that the people who run Russia aren’t politicians; they are gangsters and ruthless ones at that. Putin connived with the Tambov mafia group in St Petersburg at the time to take control of the port there. Then he was brought in to do the same with the whole country. The government in Russia doesn’t physically own all the country’s assets but they do the next best thing: take what they want when they want it and no one can stop them.
I don’t think they are about to overplay their hand to the extent of resorting to nuclear weapons. What would be done strictly in the principal of “defending the existence of the nation” but despite the rhetoric they know their country is not threatened existentially. What is threatened now is their power and their money and as the KGB did in the 1980s, they’ll be looking to protect themselves for after the fall should it happen.
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In Donetsk oblast now, Ukrainian forces have now made small inroads into territory controlled by Russiai BEFORE Feb 24.
It's a start ...

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