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Second Spike And Lockdown Reimposed

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Gromit | 22:08 Mon 29th Jun 2020 | News
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The Government were repeatedly warned again and again about reopening schools and easing lockdown too early. The R number had reduced to under 1 in London, but was still too high in the rest of the country.
Now in Leicester lockdown has had to be reintroduced because the deaths are surging again. Shops that only reopened last Monday are having to close again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53229371

This Government have been inept since the start of the pandemic and have just got worse.
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Thanks Gromit. The normal protocol is to include a token question right at the start.

My answer is that I neither agree nor disagree because I think it's too soon to tell. I am sure there are things they've done wrong - most notably not locking down soon enough, but I'm also sure they've done the right thing on many occasions as well.

I don't align myself with a particular political party, so I don't feel obliged to criticise every single thing the Govt does or says because it's a Conservative one, as you seem to do.
I don't think it's too soon to tell, tomus, we only have to look at the figures. Worldometer lists 213 countries; in the list of deaths per million, the UK is fourth. No doubt this will change a bit (I wouldn't be surprised if Brazil and the US pass us sooner or later), but six months on that's a staggeringly bad achievement for a first world country with an established national health service. Yes yes, I know Britain is more densely populated than New Zealand, at #141, as people keep saying, but Japan, a country of slightly greater density, is sitting at 116 - that's 8 deaths per million against the UK's 644.

As far as I can see, we've recorded one significant achievement - to flatten the curve and lessen pressure on the NHS over winter, as planned. (God knows what will happen if there's a resurgence next winter.) Please feel free to mention any others. But so much else, like late introduction of lockdown, PPE supplies, fumbled communication, "worldbeating" apps, has gone wrong, and more than 40,000 people have died prematurely.
//I don't think it's too soon to tell, tomus, we only have to look at the figures. //

Perhaps we disagree because I'm not interested in finding fault with the incumbent government irrespective of whatever is happening or whatever the figures are. Both you and Gromit would be defending the exact situation we're in if a Labour Govt had been in charge of it, and all three of us know it.

I still maintain that the time to determine what was done right and what was done wrong will be when the current pandemic is over. Right now, everyone is firefighting it.
// I still maintain that the time to determine what was done right and what was done wrong will be when the current pandemic is over. //

The time to learn lessons from mistakes is, presumably, when correcting those mistakes would be most effective -- when it matters, rather than afterwards. Waiting until it's all over to realise what we were doing was wrong is, by definition, far too late. Except for the inevitable next time.

For my part, I clearly have no love for the current Government, but it also stands to reason that we needed them to do well in responding to this. Judging from the UK's death toll, they have failed. Corbyn never got the chance to handle this pandemic, which is lucky for him and, perhaps, luckier still for the rest of us, but he can hardly be judged more harshly for a hypothetical failure than Johnson for an actual one. He and the Tories were extremely unlucky to be the Government in charge during the worst pandemic in a century, so, yes, in that sense it's important for people like me not to be too eager to find fault. But on the other hand, isn't dealing with a crisis the Government's job? Is leadership not what we elected them for?

//Corbyn never got the chance to handle this pandemic, which is lucky for him and, perhaps, luckier still for the rest of us, but he can hardly be judged more harshly for a hypothetical failure than for Johnson for an actual one //

No-one's doing that are they? I think what I said was ... well I don't need to say it again, it's there in the text above.
Plenty of people said that earlier. There were lots of classics here along the lines of "we shouldn't make any political capital about of this -- imagine how awful Corbyn would have been!", so that's what I had in mind when I wrote that part.
Jim, all I am saying is that I will be quite happy to pitch in on what a godawful job the Govt did about this crisis when it's over, and if it's clear that they did. Right now, we're still in it. Politics is irrelevant, to me at least.
That's fine, although my point about trying to find out what the mistakes are while there's still time to fix them still stands.
Sometimes though, jim, we can't always see the full picture straight away.
It would be interesting in a year's time though to see whether the big 'positive' excess deaths figure for March-May 2020 has been offset by a reduction in excess deaths thereafter. (in effect because COVID brought forward many deaths by a few months) And then perhaps compare excess deaths over a longer period.

govt responsible for an R number?
I dont think so

[thought bubble - Boris playing with soft toys on no 10 floor. - zebra in one hand and pink elephant ( the toy not the drinkk silly!) - he makes them kiss, and goes 'goo goo goo' (*) and mummy says - careful dear , or the R number in Leicester will go up!)

(*) goo goo goo - actually being boris it is different to that and he whispeers - babies in 9 m ! - but this is a family thread)
//It's just Leicester….//

For how long?

//Bradford, Barnsley and Rochdale can be revealed as the places with the highest levels of new Covid-19 infections after Leicester, as fears grow of further local outbreaks…//

All areas of high immigration.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/01/data-reveals-coronavirus-hotspots-in-bradford-barnsley-and-rochdale
Ever since this virus hit us people have been whining the Govt entered lockdown too late - but they were following the advice of the scientific experts.

When they follow the advice they’re rubbished, when they don’t, they’re rubbished.

It’s laughable.

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