Electoral Calculus

mikey4444 | 09:26 Sun 15th Oct 2017 | News

61 Answers

Its been a while since we discussed Polls on here, so I thought I would pst the latest EC :::::

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

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jim360

Quite apart from the specific numbers, though, it should be clear that the Tories aren't exactly having much fun at the moment. They're holding on with a minority government, the cabinet appears to be heavily divided, their leader has limited authority if any, and they still have to deliver Brexit, a task that looks increasingly hard to satisfy anyone.

Whether Labour can exploit that remains to be seen, but perhaps that is kind of what EC is reflecting in an apparent balance between the two leading parties.

naomi24

The old story in politics, Jim. Swings and roundabouts - so to speak.

ToraToraTora

oh look EC looking better for Labour so mikey's posting it again, PMSL!

ichkeria

Where Corbyn falls down every time is foreign policy and defence.
We had a thread on here about the former head of MI5 admitting in Cheltenham that people like Milne were monited for their links to extreme groups, and now, lo and behold, Milne is chief policy adviser to Corbyn. It's the latter fact is worrying, as a labour supporter, not the former.
As for the poll, I am not sure that is so great for Labour: with the pathetic state of the government at the moment, a credible opposition would be forging ahead, but they aren't. Everything is still being compared to the days of 20% Tory leads. Having said that, if I was forced to bet on the putcome of the next election at this stage I'd back Labour, but not with any conviction, and certainly with zero enthusiasm.

ichkeria

Tories 43% !!!
That is staggering. Not sure what it says about our politics, or the state of the opposition, but it is not exactly doom and gloom for CCHQ if you go by that.

ToraToraTora

mikey, the tories have a predicted 43.5%, that's more than Saint Tony and the Psuedo Tories achieved in 1997 and you never stop going on about that so can we assume you are equally impressed by the Tories?

mikey4444

Question Author

TTT....you show that you do not understand how British politics works.

The Tories may have won 43.5% of the vote in June, but it still failed to give them a working majority, thus entailing the need to bribe the Bowler-Hatted Bigots with funds from the Magic Money Tree, the tree that didn't exist in the run-up to June 8th.

In 1997, Labour gained 145 seats, but Major lost 178, and Blair won an unprecedented victory.

Its all about bums on seats in the HOC, not percentages achieved.

That is how our system works....its not like America you know !

jim360

...

Baldric

I seriously cannot understand why Mikey and others wish to see the UK on the road to ruin under another Labour Government. It must be a working class envy based outlook from many years ago imo.

jim360

At a guess, it's because we're currently watching the country go to ruin, as we see it, under a Tory government. Why not let the other lot ruin it for a bit, just to shake things up a little?

mikey4444

Question Author

Baldric....in June, 12,878,460 people voted Labour, against 13,669,883 who voted Tory.

In other words, over 3 million more people voted Labour this June, than did 2 years ago.

So..... I and the few other lefties on AB are hardly alone are we ?

Baldric

Labour came second Mikey, get over it.

ichkeria

I think mikey, in all fairness, and much as it pains me to say, it, while I agree that that seat projection is not good for the Tories, it is still not disastrous given where we are, and you cannot really dismiss that 43.5%, because that is actually a pretty whopping total in comparison to recent elections. It is at the very least something to build on.
As I said before though, we have a far left labour party, and a reeling, divided and seemingly incompetent Tory party and yet the "centre" ground" in the shape of the Lib Dems rates 7.6% just now.
I still think though that the Tories need to build on that 43% by not being complacent: they ARE out of touch with many voters, and things are NOT as they were back in 2008 say, pre-the crash. And Labour ARE a threat. But so much can happen between now and another election ...

mikey4444

Question Author

Baldric....the Tories lost 13 seats and their clear, working majority.

This was all Mays fault....now you get over that !

Baldric

Tory win Mikey, nothing to get over ;o)

mikey4444

Question Author

Itchy....yes, you are right. Its a long time to 2021.

But anything may happen in that time, and one of those things is that the Tories could get even more hopeless and incompetent. As it stands at present, they will be leading us into the unknown world of a bad deal, out of the EU. The DUP have shown no lve for a bad deal, so an Election could happen anytime before June 2021.

And forget all about the Libs....they are dead in the water and the fateful shell that sunk their ship was fired the day that Clegg held hands with Cameron in the Rose garden of Number Ten. They won't be coming to the Tories rescue again in my lifetime

jim360

I'm guessing that Baldric comes from the same school as, say, a General of Xerxes' Persian Army, watching the devastation wrought on his forces at Thermopylae at the hands of a few hundred Spartans, and saying "oh wow, what a glorious victory we have won here today".