Election Prediction

[fender62]

tory landslide, hung parliament.. i think the torys will win a majority buy a whisker, your thoughts?

[naomi24]

TWR, you think the Conservatives are lying? If they were, you wouldn't know about any of that. (Not sure where bus passes come into it. I've heard no mention of that).

[kvalidir]

Hung parliament ( with luck) I imagine if there is a reasonable voting turn out, otherwise small Tory win. I think the surge and realisation about Labour has come too late to swing it, as it's now too late to register to vote, but clearly that's what I'd like to see, and damned shame the party couldn't get behind the elected leader sooner so we could have really disarmed the Tories.

[Sqad]

If the British public can vote two OAP's singing in the final of Britain's Got Talent, they can easily vote a hung parliament.

[ToraToraTora]

Murdo, I think there is a Mr Lier standing in TWR's constituency

[Gromit]

The Conservatives will undoubtedly win, but that was a foregone conclusion, which is why May called it in the first place.

Her aim was to get a mandate for Brexit by getting a substantially increased majority.

The Conservatives had a majority of 17, which meant that just 9 rebels could hold the party to ransom.

My prediction is that there will be a very small increase in their majority to perhaps 25-30.

It will not be the mandate, and the whole election will have been largely a waste of time. At a time when the Government should be battling for Britain to get the best deal out of leaving the EU, they have instead been wasting time on this charade.

[-Talbot-]

I predict a riot.

[youngmafbog]

I'd say a slightly higher majority but no landslide.

May is not up to the job, if Labour had a better leader and an achievable manifesto I think they would have walked it.

[mikey4444]

I am going to stick my neck out and say that May will win next week, with about 90 as an overall majority.

But that could change, if more younger people vote, and not in her favour.

[mikey4444]

Sorry...got my sums wrong there...perhaps only about 50-60 majority.

[youngmafbog]

Not all young people vote labour Mickey, none in my family do for instance.

I'd like her to win simply because JC's manifesto is living in cloud cuckoo land meaning it would not be delivered which would in turn lead to unrest, and this is not the time to be fiddling with the way the country works. I would not like her to win by anything more than 30 as I feel she would see this as a mandate to carry on as she is and that is very poor. She needs a boot up the jacksey.

[mikey4444]

ymb....no, not all but the young tend to be more left wing. We shall have to wait and see !

[ToraToraTora]

I am forced to agree with YMB, TMs performance and that of the Tory's in this election campaign has been risible. Someone like Kinnochio would have hammered us. I hope it's the old Manu v Accrington stanley syndrome but really she should not take anything for granted. She's dropped a lot of bowlocks and missed many open goals. If Labour had any clue at all they'd be in no 10 next Friday. I just hope that TM and co manage the country better going forward, especially brexit, than they managed the election, D, Mrs May, could do better! If we get 50+ majority I'd consider that generous of the voters.

[Gromit]

10ClarionSt

Despite getting 4 million votes in 2015, UKIPs voters are too dispersed. So no seats actually were lost or won due to UKIP voters.
I think you are right, UKIPs vote will collapse this time (maybe 1 million votes) but those 3 million votes that will change will not make a ha'pence of difference to the overall result.

[mikey4444]

Plenty of evidence 10C.

Judging by Nuttall's performance whenever he is in the media, I would be amazed if UKIP got any MPs at all, except perhaps the wild card that is Thanet South.

[Jackdaw33]

UKIP is nothing without Farage. They are now dead in the water. Still, they achieved what they set out to do.

[jim360]

Great, now I have to go and check how many seats were lost in 2015 due to swings from first party to UKIP...

[Celtigra3]

Forget the polls. Last few times none of them have been correct! Personally I'll be glad when it's all over. Talk about overkill the media are in a feeding frenzy

[jim360]

Hard to say. I think a more decisive factor in 2015 was the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. The Tories actually made losses to Labour in 2015 (10 seats to eight).