Election Predictions

[AB Editor]

Morning!

fivethirtyeight has their UK election prediction interactive up - you can see it here:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

They have a habit of getting it right.

I'm somewhat worried about the labour and SNP growth they predicted, that coalition seems a little too obvious?

[mikey4444]

Grumpy... I can't see Cleggie losing his seat, as he is sitting on a majority of 15,284, over the Tory candidate. Labour have traditionally come 3rd in Sheffield Hallam.

Danny Alexander is on rather less safe grounds though, with a majority of only 8765, with both Labour and the SNP snapping at his heels.

Actually, I don't dislike either of them, especially Alexander and wouldn't want them to leave Westminster.

[Jackdaw33]

If Labour form a minority government there will be no chance of a second election unless they either repeal the FPA or instigate a vote of no confidence in themselves.

[Gromit]

Svejk,

Put a figure on how many seats UKIP will get then.

It will be less than 10. I reckon 3 or 4.

[jim360]

Well svejk I don't think it's a delusion -- it's just a truism that UKIP has a lot of ground to make up and it appears that their support is not strong enough to win pluralities in many seats. Signs are that they peaked a bit early, and at the General Election people will probably revert to form and vote Tory or Labour. We'll see how true this holds out. I expect UKIP to come (a tight) second in a fair number of seats, but probably not first.

[mikey4444]

Jim...who knows ? There are some that think UKIP will win by a "landslide" in 2020 !

[Khandro]

The problem with these polls is that they are predicated on the belief that when asked, the interviewee tells the truth. It is after all, a secret ballot; and when you go into that booth, no one knows for whom you vote - and a good thing too!

[Svejk]

Around 10, perhaps. We shall see. After another 5 years of Liblabcon lies and mismanagement I think people will start getting the message in time for 2020. Some folks are a little slow, bless them.

[Gromit]

Mikey,

A Survation Poll in January gave Labour 33% and Clegg 23%.

http://survation.com/poll-in-nick-cleggs-sheffield-hallam-constituency-survationunite/

More recently, Lord Ashcroft's Survey in March also predicted a Labour win.

[Gromit]

// Around 10 // perhaps.

Hardly breaking the mould of British Politics.

[mikey4444]

Gromit...I haven't seen that ! Bad news for Cleggie.....he's not a bad sort of chap...I shall be sorry to see him go.

[jim360]

Clegg's biggest mistake was in thinking that Liberal Democrat voters actually wanted to do anything, rather than just protest about it...

[Gromit]

Lord Ashcroft poll

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/01/nick-clegg-on-course-to-lose-seat-at-election-according-lord-ashcroft-poll