Another Lockdown?

[smurfchops]

Do we think Boris would dare to announce another lockdown, possibly in a couple of weeks, the way things are going ? Or will he allow more and more Covid cases to spread all over England? Just asking….

[Gromit]

// Boris is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t //

Boris is damned now because easing lockdown now when all the data says not to, is just damning. All foolhardy.

[ToraToraTora]

bookmarked, we'll be revisiting this in 6 weeks gromit.

[Gromit]

TTT ^

Or earlier. Bookmarked.

[Atheist]

Togo, I think the scientists are forecasting 100,000 cases per day and possibly 200,000. You might think that that doesn't amount to that many deaths and you may well be right; but do you have any evidence to support that, apart from your own wishes?

[DTCwordfan]

The crucial things now are (i) the Astra vaccine doesn't lose its effectiveness (ii) there aren't any new variants (which could happen anywhere in the wold) (iii) we minimise beta exposure (iv) we don't go nuts about being supposedly 'free' and the hossies don't become overwhelmed with ICU cases, (though deaths have probably been minimised). Boris should also look at pinging and if two PCRs and one or two laterals are negative, then let the 'victim' return to their normal life asap, no more than two days off, say.

[Togo]

//You might think that that doesn't amount to that many deaths and you may well be right;//

There you go again. Where did I say that or even offer a hypothesis of the likelihood? Stop projecting.

[Togo]

// I think the scientists are forecasting 100,000 cases per day and possibly 200,000.//
Are you talking about France, where I believe you are living, or are your "scientists" John Edmunds the doom monger from SAGE?

[Gromit]

// deaths have probably been minimised //

Deaths on the 19 July 2020 was 23. Covid was beat
Deaths on the 18th July 2021 was 25. Covid minimised.

Deaths mid January 2021 - 1,823
Deaths 6 months from now - ? Certainly higher than 25.

[Togo]

Neil Ferguson perhaps? The clown known as "never knowingly correct".

[Togo]

There will be a surge of new cases wherever or whenever a lockdown regime is eased. If you cannot grasp that fact please stop commenting and stay at home for ever. We could remain in lockdown for another 12 months and all who want them have jabs 5 times over, but when we come from under the rocks there will still be an increase in infections unless we lock away forcibly all who will not have the vaccine.

[sp1814]

Local lockdowns?

And let's not assume that the Delta variant is the last one. There may be others.

[Gromit]

More Variants occur the more cases there are.
There are 250,000 more people with Covid this week than last week. No one knows what the figure will be in 4 weeks. So we have not seen off the variants. There will be more new ones, in the coming weeks/months.

[dave50]

No doubt when there is a surge in normal flu cases in the winter there will be calls from some that we should be locked down "protect our NHS" even though we have never done it before for flu.

[Gromit]

// when there is a surge in normal flu cases in the winter there will be calls from some that we should be locked down //

No there won’t, you are just being silly.

Covid has killed more in the last year than flu has in the last decade. If I hoped we had learned one thing, it was that covid and flu do not compare. Covid is far more dangerous.

[Ellipsis]

Last time TTT was so bold he offered 66/1 and nobody took him up on it!

Personally, I think if you're double vaccinated you have to put yourself at risk of catching the virus now. The issue is that if everybody does that at once, and too many react badly, it could overwhelm the health system. A better approach mighty have been to expose people in batches, to assess the impact before going "all in."

[gulliver1]

22.07 Tory Tory Tory got it wrong "last time"
and wrong once again this time. There will be more lockdowns.

[Gromit]

The Health Minister is proof that being double vaccinated does not protect anyone 100%.
So 40 million are maxinated, but if 10% of them get it, we are looking at a huge burden on the health service.

[Ellipsis]

No, the main issue is not the number that get it, it's the number that end up in hospital or dead.

[jim360]

The particular risk right now is coming from the disease being able to spread so widely whilst in a largely-vaccinated population. The fabled "herd immunity" hasn't kicked in, so, whilst most of those who are vaccinated aren't getting (very) sick, what they *are* doing, in increasingly large numbers, is catching it. This increases the chances of a vaccine-resistant variant emerging.

The more prudent course of action would have been to wait to ease restrictions until case numbers could be shown to stay so low that this scenario had much less chance of happening. As it is, it's too late to stop the spread of the disease without drastic measures that there is no political will for -- certainly not whilst Johnson is pressured by his own party to move on from the lockdown cycle.

So, there'll be more deaths, and many more hospital cases, in the coming weeks, and the hope has to be that the risk of a new vaccine-resistant variant emerging is very much less than I've implied above. We'll have to compare notes in six weeks.

[jno]

the main issue is not the number that get it

it's an issue, Ellipsis, because it increases the possibility of vaccine-proof variants. Whether it's the main issue is a matter of opinion, as the risks can't really be calculated, but there's never going to be a good time for a more lethal Gamma variant to emerge.