Have We Just Kick Started A Second Wave Of Covid Infections?

ToraToraTora | 11:13 Sun 07th Jun 2020 | News

35 Answers

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52949014
What with all these gatherings have we just sentenced ourselves to more lock down? Can the economy take any more?

Forget George Floyd - Prince Archie Speaks !

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Zacs-Master

I thought you were bored by this subject dominating the news, Tora?

lankeela

'We' haven't - but the ignorant masses may well have done.

ToraToraTora

Question Author

this is about Covid and the economy Zacs I am not interested in the purpose of the gatherings merely their effect.

Zacs-Master

But the gatherings are because of Floyd.

jim360

I appreciate that I just posted it elsewhere, but still relevant:

// It might also be relevant that, even before the protests were thought of, the Government decided to ease restrictions by allowing travel nationwide, allowing people to meet in groups of up to six, re-opened several places of work, etc etc.

I'm sure the protests will sadly have an impact on Coronavirus spread but I'm also sure that if there is a second wave it won't have been the only driving factor. //

Meanwhile, I read in the Sunday Times that there may be pressure within the Government to ease restrictions further -- eg reduce the two metre distancing to one metre, move to re-open pubs and restaurants much faster, and so on. I don't know which out of the two will have a greater impact but it would, at the very least, be difficult to separate the individual effects.

ToraToraTora

Question Author

irrelevant, they have eschewed the rules and thus potentially pushing us back to over R=1

Zacs-Master

What if there isn’t a second wave? What would that prove, or even suggest?

ToraToraTora

Question Author

great, then we've got away with it.

ToraToraTora

Question Author

multiple gatherings of thousands in both US and UK must surely risk kickstarting the disease if that somehow does not happen then I for one would consider that very fortunate.

Zacs-Master

Indeed. Not sure of the value of debating something which can only be proven with time.

jim360

I'm not saying I don't agree that this protest could drive the spread more. I'm just saying that there are plenty of other factors to consider, and it seems unfortunate that you've decided to focus on one possible cause of a second wave. I don't want to write off the impact this may have, but I don't think you should focus solely on this one either. The Government was already relaxing lockdown and is likely to plan to do so further. A sustained relaxation of the rules is not going to have a negligible impact.

Zacs-Master

But would it be ‘fortunate’ or a real life experiment showing that lockdown was unnecessary?

Peter Pedant

// I thought you were bored by this subject dominating the news, Tora?//

so we have to turn our attention to non-news like George Floyd - erm yes I think so ["we" have started off a seond wave]- and we wait five days and see if there begins a spike of cases or 21 day for the patients to start dying

and all of our own volition too

Peter Pedant

// I'm not saying I don't agree that this protest could drive the spread more.//

weak double negative there I am afraid
I think a spike at 5 d would settle the question inn it?

jim360

Only if the spike were confined to those people who attended the protest and their contacts. I'm not sure how precise the data can, or even should, be about such things.

ToraToraTora

Question Author

ZM: "But would it be ‘fortunate’ or a real life experiment showing that lockdown was unnecessary? " - Well multiple countries that were late to lock down have the worst figures so I'd say it is was necessary but TBH I can see that we now need to restart the economy while we still have one. The purpose of the lock down is primarily to avoid over running the NHS and we did achieve that so going forward we could choose to just ride out what happens.