I Wonder How Long Gulliver Will...
Politics2 mins ago
Covid 19 Graphs
Hi Abers, anyone know of a reliable site showing graphs comparing deaths in each country per number of population, say per 10,000 of each country. I only seem to find the headcount per country which doesn't compare really. Tia.
Answers
https://www.
14:46 Sat 25th Apr 2020
Hi FF
oh it was you - I would have been less snarly.
I tire of penning a long accurate maff analysis and the poster replies- "yeah well I never got beyond 1+1 =2. Foo calculus, why doan they says calculation and have done wivvit!"
in which case I just as well pour myself a lager
and read a book
if you model the pop density in the SIR model - then the most likely effect is Ro goes down - and so the equations are as is. The constants change - which the commentators irritatingly call parameters.
I dont regard the equations as having been parametrised.
One - I can get it if you want - models the outbreak as a standing wave over an area - wow! - but even that doesnt model the terrain as having difft pop density. The presenter also does the numberphile viddies on Navier Stokes equations - and it is pretty impressive how he weaves the wave equations into the outbreak models .....
{population density IS important in genetics - if it goes too low ( less than 10 to the 5 but I cant recollect the units - then Darwinian principles of selection CEASE to apply)
er so this is a long reply to say - no I dont think pop density is a factor because those with highest ( netherlands Hong Kong and indonesia should all have multiple deaths. and those which are empty - antartica, namibia, mali should have none.)
oh it was you - I would have been less snarly.
I tire of penning a long accurate maff analysis and the poster replies- "yeah well I never got beyond 1+1 =2. Foo calculus, why doan they says calculation and have done wivvit!"
in which case I just as well pour myself a lager
and read a book
if you model the pop density in the SIR model - then the most likely effect is Ro goes down - and so the equations are as is. The constants change - which the commentators irritatingly call parameters.
I dont regard the equations as having been parametrised.
One - I can get it if you want - models the outbreak as a standing wave over an area - wow! - but even that doesnt model the terrain as having difft pop density. The presenter also does the numberphile viddies on Navier Stokes equations - and it is pretty impressive how he weaves the wave equations into the outbreak models .....
{population density IS important in genetics - if it goes too low ( less than 10 to the 5 but I cant recollect the units - then Darwinian principles of selection CEASE to apply)
er so this is a long reply to say - no I dont think pop density is a factor because those with highest ( netherlands Hong Kong and indonesia should all have multiple deaths. and those which are empty - antartica, namibia, mali should have none.)
I have seen no suggestion in the informed discussion of the pandemic that population density per km² is in itself significant (ready to be guided to something that says this). What is clearly significant is if each dwelling has multiple occupants in numbers going past the low single digits, not to mention where occupants normally number 20 or more per dwelling or even individual room - which is why poor areas, nursing homes and prisons worry the authorities.
What has been very successful is isolation/quarantining of infected persons and/or those known to have been exposed - contact tracing being absolutely key. At least one of the countries jno mentions (15.14) has done this rigorously to excellent effect. But a female leader may not be that significant unless by keeping out of the storm and leaving the health service, scientists and police to run things - parliament rubber stamps the recommended policy and not a single politician is to be seen at the daily briefings, just professionals/specialists.
What has been very successful is isolation/quarantining of infected persons and/or those known to have been exposed - contact tracing being absolutely key. At least one of the countries jno mentions (15.14) has done this rigorously to excellent effect. But a female leader may not be that significant unless by keeping out of the storm and leaving the health service, scientists and police to run things - parliament rubber stamps the recommended policy and not a single politician is to be seen at the daily briefings, just professionals/specialists.
// What is clearly significant is if each dwelling has multiple occupants in numbers going past the low single digits, //
no even that is contentious
My nephew had it and did not infect his dear wife ( no kissy kissy for seven days clearly ) and then I read that it was frequent to have a household where one person infected and the others not ( NB no testing or antibodies in the UK) .
Along with the observation that this was noticed in Foe's Journal of the Plague Year
[rat fleas wouldnt go for just any human, even when they were fleeing a cooling dead human one - foe didnt notice that one]
altho in Eyam they kinder all died
no even that is contentious
My nephew had it and did not infect his dear wife ( no kissy kissy for seven days clearly ) and then I read that it was frequent to have a household where one person infected and the others not ( NB no testing or antibodies in the UK) .
Along with the observation that this was noticed in Foe's Journal of the Plague Year
[rat fleas wouldnt go for just any human, even when they were fleeing a cooling dead human one - foe didnt notice that one]
altho in Eyam they kinder all died
America is actually doing very well.
// The United States, for example, has far more Covid-19 deaths than any other country - as of 20 April, a total of over 40,000 deaths.
But the US has a population of 330 million people.
If you take the five largest countries in Western Europe - the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain - their combined population is roughly 320 million.
And the total number of registered coronavirus deaths from those five countries, as of 20 April, was over 85,000 - more than twice that of the US.
So, individual statistics don't tell the full story. \\
https:/
// The United States, for example, has far more Covid-19 deaths than any other country - as of 20 April, a total of over 40,000 deaths.
But the US has a population of 330 million people.
If you take the five largest countries in Western Europe - the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain - their combined population is roughly 320 million.
And the total number of registered coronavirus deaths from those five countries, as of 20 April, was over 85,000 - more than twice that of the US.
So, individual statistics don't tell the full story. \\
https:/
They don't show other deaths either. My stepsister's husband has had prostate cancer for a long time (his dad and brother both died early with it). His treatment has now been stopped, due to covid, which means he now only has about 3 months left. That won't be counted, unless he happens to get covid as well.
