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Covid Projections

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Gromit | 08:35 Sat 23rd Oct 2021 | News
29 Answers
Some interesting graphs here.

Hope the worst case projections are wrong.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=mask-use&;tab=trend

What do you make of them ?

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I'm not sure of the point of these Gromit?
The 'universal 95% mask use' target seem's meaningless. Whose targets that? Is it for all situations.

And how can you project what social distancing behaviour will be- why is there projection any more than mine. My projection is social distancing might improve abit, then dip over Xmas as people party, and then improve again when hospital rates shoot up, but lets hope its all wrong and the boosters plus vaxxing 12-18 plus more social responsibility all helps
Ah- sorry, first time it just opened and gave me the masks and social distance projections but I now see that I can tab back to get more graphs so will have alook. But for most people projections arent trusted. Some will see it as more project fear/scaremongering/lies. Others will say so what I'll just do the best I can for me and family while getting on with life as best I can
I wear a mask when others might not like when shopping and in crowded places even at work sometimes and dont care who ridicules me on here for doing so.... but I dont believe universal mask use would give such dramatic reductions as these graph's projections show.
“Hope the worst case projections are wrong”

The projections and scenarios have consistently been wrong in the past, so I don’t see why these will be any different.
//“Hope the worst case projections are wrong”//

He didn't mean it Dd.
Question Author
Our daily deaths seem to be about 5 times what is happening in the rest of Europe.

Daily deaths 22/10/21

France 29
Germany 41
Italy 39
Spain 30
UK 180
180 out of a population of 67 million.
Is the rest of Europe counting deaths in the same way we are?
Question Author
180 deaths out of a population of 67 million.
139 deaths out of a population of 252 Million .
//…and dont care who ridicules me on here for doing so.//

I don’t believe anybody on here has ridiculed you, bob (not as far as I can see anyway). What some people may have done is to question your decision, which is not quite the same. You mentioned in another thread that people will not wear masks “even when told to.” In England there is no legal requirement to wear masks. People can be asked to wear them (and businesses can refuse service if they fail to comply) but nobody can be “told” to wear one. I appreciate the situation is different in Wales.

Back to the charts, they make no sense. As an example, the chart of “Daily deaths” projects, at the beginning of January ‘22, 1,056 deaths as a worst case with just 53 if we all wear masks. I’ll not argue again the efficacy or otherwise of face coverings, but perhaps somebody can explain how, if we all wore them, it would decrease the daily deaths by 95%.

//Is the rest of Europe counting deaths in the same way we are?//

It almost certainly isn’t. It probably isn’t counting hospitalisations in the same way either. I know two people who have died in the last 18 months who were both included in the 139k reported Covid deaths. Neither would have survived significantly longer had they not contracted Covid and both caught it in hospital, where they had been admitted – Covid free - for something else. Daily Covid hospitalisations include patients who had been admitted free of the virus but subsequently tested positive after admission (again, for something else). Many older people (and some younger) who have multiple health problems eventually succumb to a widespread common disease which was not originally among their ailments. Pneumonia is a very common cause of death among such people and they die from it because their immune system is badly compromised as a result of their underlying health conditions. To put it crudely, pneumonia “finishes them off” and that is what is happening to many patients who die from Covid. I appreciate that it is difficult to separate these from people who die plainly and simply from Covid and nothing else but it is disingenuous to say they all died as a result of Covid (or pneumonia).

I don’t know how other countries measure their deaths but I doubt they would include a 95 year old who had been suffering from serious kidney and liver problems and who had spent much of the two years prior to her death in hospital. Nor, I doubt, would they include a 75 year old who had been diagnosed with terminal cancer before the pandemic began and who was told she would not see the following summer. But those were the circumstances which led to my two friends being added to the list of “Covid” deaths, so you will forgive me if I treat the figure of 139k with a little suspicion.
I have no idea why it should nbe 400% higher
I have tosho phobia I have
I go mad ( OK madder ) when I see tosh and it doesnt have to be first grade tosh eeva

Nor, I doubt, would they include a 75 year old who had been diagnosed with terminal cancer before the pandemic began and who was told she would not see the following summer.

writes an intellect

and so my lord if the old lady is feeling old, and "wont see next year my lord coz I old and ill I am nearny nearny" and she is! so if she falls under a bus or is pushed then the cause of death must be - being old and having terminal cancer - clear acquittal of pusher

really my Lord I dont think so
//The projections and scenarios have consistently been wrong in the past, so I don’t see why these will be any different//
Yes, but sometimes have been too high sometimes too low but the general scale has been right. Some have been very accurate so we cant just dismiss them all
// so I don’t see why these will be any different.//

like the stocck market - past performance gives no clue on how it will perfom
// so you will forgive me if I treat the figure of 139k with a little suspicion.//
Agreed -some other measure's suggest it should be higher, eg excess deaths, and over 162000 with Covid mentioned on death certificate. For every one with Covid whose knocked down by a bus or has a heart attack theres probably at least one that dies with covid maybe alone at home but hadnt been tested
//Yes, but sometimes have been too high sometimes too low...//

Perhaps you could point us to some projections that have proved to be too low.
Question Author
NJ

5 March
//Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.
He said that UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, and could be much lower. //

28 March.
// According to Imperial College London’s new predictions, Britain is on course for around 5,700 deaths //

We will be on 140,000 deaths any day.
too low a projection
one coming up
whitty - before the kissy kissy in the park

I said 20 000 ( total deaths ) and thought 50 000 far too many

and all the slowness in locking down, PPE etc - that was due to over projection and caution
no sirree ! due to doubt about the figures and fracking around ( wiv Boris literally - [he made a baby wiv Carrul for the Abers to who do not 'do' subtlety])

and believing nay - KNOWING in that crazy thread sense - that the figures would be lower
// We will be on 140,000 deaths any day.//

this needs a naomi-style clarification: We will be on a total of 140,000 deaths at any set day now.

(there will be a date on which we pass a total of 140 000 deaths) - - surely?
Question Author
PP
We are currently on 139,326, and adding about 200 deaths a day. So 140K by early next week.

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