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youngmafbog | 09:58 Tue 10th Oct 2017 | News
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Bullish May draws plan for ‘no deal’ and prepares to spend billions on new border controls to keep British trade flowing if Brussels talks fail

A dose of reality finally. There will be no deal, ask pretty much any leaver. One of the reasons many voted to leave was because they were fed up with the bullying and intransigent EU. Add to that all the 26 Nations will need to approve and a desire to punish us it and it's common sense that we will end up walking away.

Better to spend money shoring up our borders than pay for Junkers bar bill.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4964128/May-gets-real-Brexit-no-deal-new-border-controls.html
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//Well, both sides seem to acknowledge that the UK owes *something* due to outstanding commitments.//

No, we know we owe nothing legally. However morally (and because we really dont want the EU to go down the pan) it may be prudent to pay something. But nothing like the ridiculous figure they sate.
// However the EU have not justified the figure at all. It is pulled out the hat. //

Ymb, can to point me to where the UK have justified their €20billion figure?
The UK have deliberately offered far less than is due and then do not seem to want to budge from that. It is the UK side that does not want to negotiate.

// Prime Minister Theresa May is reportedly preparing to offer the EU a €20 billion divorce bill in her key Brexit speech on Friday after Boris Johnson backed down from his threat to resign from the cabinet.
Although falling far short of EU expectations, the government hopes that this offer will restart progress in the stalled Brexit negotiations, and allow talks to move onto a future relationship between the UK and EU before the end of the year.
The EU has previously suggested that the UK would owe about €60 billion after Brexit, but the offer from the government would be seen as progress.
One EU diplomat told the Financial Times: "We will at least have something to talk about, but it is not where the landing zone is." //

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-theresa-may-to-offer-eu-20bn-divorce-bill-2017-9
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//It is the UK side that does not want to negotiate. //

Jeez, get your head out of the sand.
May came out with the stupid "No deal is better than a bad deal" at the start of the process because she was preparing to fail.
//Prime Minister Theresa May is reportedly preparing to offer the EU a €20 billion divorce bill in her key Brexit speech on Friday //
With a full costing and explanation of, from where, the "figures" were derived.
//The EU has previously suggested that the UK would owe about €60 billion after Brexit,//
When asked for an explanation of where this figure came from, with an opportunity for the UK to be given a right to check the accountancy, the EUSSR promptly declined.
That is basically the thing in a nutshell. Pull the rug from under their feet and look to fresh, and honest, horizons.
good to see the usual collaborators rubbishing their own country. Keep up the good work chaps.
If we do not agree a political settlement ourselves with the EU, we will have to go to the International Court of Arbitration in the Hague.
And the judgement may not be to our liking, but will be binding. Even Theresa May isn't so stupid as to go down that route. The talks may well stall, but we will reach an agreement before March 2019.
"but will be binding" - err how? we'll be gone, you really do live in a dream world gromit. How is a foreign court going to enforce it's decision on a foreign nation? It's be like the high court trying to enforce a ruling on India!
Gromit, //If we do not agree a political settlement ourselves with the EU, we will have to go to the International Court of Arbitration in the Hague. //

Where did you get that from? That organisation deals with international commercial disputes, not political issues, and its headquarters is in Paris.
Tora,
The UK is a member of the International Court of Arbitration, and so is the EU. The Court settles disputes between members all over the world. It is not an EU organisation, it is worldwide.

But as I say, no one in their right mind would Brexit without a deal, so the Judges in the Netherlands won't be needed. A deal will be agreed.
Naomi,
I have got my Courts in a muddle.

// Could we walk away without paying a Brexit ‘divorce bill’?

The Lords’ EU Financial Affairs Committee reports that the “strictly legal position of the UK on this issue appears to be strong”. If negotiators fail to agree on a political financial settlement, it could become a legal case in the International Court of Justice or the Permanent Court of Arbitration, both located in The Hague. The result of such a court case would be hard to predict. However there have been suggestions that this international arbitration solution would be preferable to a political settlement. //

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill
Anyone in their right mind won't be forced into a bad deal because of intransigence from the other side, so will may effectively be forced into a no deal Brexit; and just be glad to be out out the situation. Whether there's a trade deal depends on the EU coming to its senses. Meanwhile it's reputation drops further each day.
Gromit, thought you might have.
it's reputation drops further each day

really? Among whom? Brexiters have rated it at 0 for years, so its reputation can't fall for them, and I've seen no sign that anyone else is throwing up hands in horror. The euro is doing nicely.
Among all fair minded people so the world in general.
Using political power to try to bully nations can surely not be reputation enhancing to many.
//Using political power to try to bully nations//

OG, this is basically an extremely melodramatic way of describing simple politics. In fact, pretty unexceptional politics. Unless the EU starts conducting itself in a criminal manner, nobody is going to listen if the UK cries foul about "bullying". The world has bigger problems than the UK putting itself in a weak political position and then moaning about it.
Among all fair minded people

"among all people who agree with me", then.
it's picked up again since then, tonyav. Sometimes events move it a lot, sometimes they prove only temporary. It fell a bit after the German election and the Catalan poll, but recovered. It's stayed high against sterling since the Brexit vote, though - about 1.26 to the £ before, about 1.13 now.
Thanks jno, up today down tomorrow.

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