How Do You Think The Referendum Vote Will Go?

[AB Editor]

 

This poll is closed.

Which way do you think the British public will vote on June 23rd?

• Out - 179 votes
• 63%
• In - 107 votes
• 37%

See final stats

Stats until: 16:24 Sun 28th Apr 2024 (Refreshed every 5 minutes)

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[albaqwerty]

I think the result will be 'IN'

Mushroom, I heard/read somewhere that this referendum isn't binding so if Mr Cameron doesn't like the result he'll ignore it.
Makes me wonder, if it isn't binding, why waste taxpayers money on having one?

[jourdain2]

They might try that, mushroom- because the referendum in not binding - but they'd be very, very unwise to do so. I could envisage massive, passive resistance in such a circumstance and some that would not be passive.

Thanks Ed. :)

The Daily Telegraph has held a poll of its readers.19,000 questioned, 69% intending to vote Leave (58% of those aged between 18 and 24 and a massive 75% of over-65's). This is in today's paper.

[Mamyalynne]

//Could MPs block an EU exit if Britain votes for it?//

The answer is that technically MPs could block an EU exit - but it would be seen as political suicide to go against the will of the people as expressed in a referendum. The referendum result is not legally binding - Parliament still has to pass the laws that will get Britain out of the 28 nation bloc, starting with the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act.

One scenario that could see the referendum result overturned, is if MPs forced a general election and a party campaigned on a promise to keep Britain in the EU, got elected and then claimed that the election mandate topped the referendum one. Two thirds of MPs would have to vote for a general election to be held before the next scheduled one in 2020.//

Source - there is more.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887

[sp1814]

I think it will be incredibly close and the Remain group will win.

Or it will be incredibly close and the Leave group will win.

Alternatively, it could be a landslide for Leave.

But not a landslide for Remain.

Hedging my bets.

Actually, I honestly don't know...but if it were my tenner, I'd say that Leave are going to get it. They are more passionate and more vocal.

I can name serveral politicians and pressure groups supporting Leave...whereas Remain seems a bit 'damp squibbish'.

[woofgang]

I did think about this...not about a right of veto but about brinkmanship. We have already been told (and it makes sense) that if Brxit happens, it will tale months of not years to actually come about....so lets say that the rest of the EU so don’t want the UK to leave that they make a really really juicy stay deal.....what happens then? I mean I cannot imagine the government actually just saying "oh well its all changed, we know what you voted for but we know best”....so would it go to another referendum? or would it just be “sorry, too late, we are out the door whatever you offer”?

[AB Editor]

The remain arguments seem pretty terrible SP, and seem set on diminishing the UK's role in Europe and beyond. This obviously plays very nicely with the leave campaign's story.

Their argument might have been more effective if it was about effecting change within the EU, and about the UK becoming central to that change. But, like Dave's "negotiation", they settled with the pathetic.

[stob]

Also what is the minimum majority for a "win".
Would 51% - 49% be acceptable or is that too close ?

[Mamyalynne]

That's been debated, not sure if there is a figure as a law/rule.


http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1493248.html

[jim360]

"Apparently this country has opposed around 75% of rules and laws enacted by the EU."

Citation for that one?

[jourdain2]

Even Cameron has said that 51% - 49% would be binding and the next day he would institute moves to extricate ourselves.

France voted for the EEC by 1% - and they were the votes from the 'outre-mer' territories, until they were added in it was a 'not join' majority.

[jim360]

In answer to the poll question: in, but I wouldn't be prepared to bet anything on that outcome really. It remains too close to call, I think.

[stob]

Thanks Mamyalynne

[ToraToraTora]

I'll vote out but I think the remainiacs are winning.

[Old_Geezer]

I think it's still too close to call, and a way to go yet.

[stuey]

On this day 72 years ago I bet a lot of young men would have voted to stay out of Europe.

[Lie-in King]

How close it turns out to be touches on a point that someone asked me about recently, to wit - if the paper says use a "cross" - X - & a "tick" - ✔ - is used, does that count as a spoiled paper, discounted vote or some such?

I found this & while it talks of "candidates" not "options", I guess it's still valid & yes, there might be a more up-to-date article out there...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8614833.stm

I found the reference(s) to the "discretion of the returning officer" interesting.

Apologies if this has been discussed previously on AB.

[Ellipsis]

> How Do You Think The Referendum Vote Will Go?

Depends on the turnout. If high, then remain. If low, then leave. Crosses over somewhere in between ...

[beegeebee]

I'm reasonably sure most people are (small 'C') conservative by nature and will vote for the Status Quo. It's just unfortunate when the votes have been counted there will be no Status Quo, irrespective if the Inners or Outers win!

[Svejk]

AB Editor//// mushroom25 - that doesn't sounds correct. Where did you hear it?

I suppose it could happen, but would they keep their seats in the next election?///

Perhaps a reference to this story, which if you can't be bothered to read it, says the Remainiacs would keep 'free movement of peasants' and our payments to the EU, even if we Brexit. (presumably to rub our noses in it)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120

[Ken4155]

As a point of interest (nothing more), whilst the price for a remain vote has hardly altered in recent days (was 1/3 and now 2/5 at most firms), the vote for a Brexit has attracted some attention and the price has now shortened from around 7/2 a few days back to a general 2/1. Of course, the price will also reflect the bookies liabilities and i really wouldn't attach a great deal of importance to just how much it has shortened at this moment in time. The most likely scenario (according to our odds compiler friends) is still a remain vote of 50% to 55% @ a general 2/1.