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Do You Think There Will Be Another Lockdown?
113 Answers
Hi there
Do you think there will be another lockdown this winter. I am in Scotland. I will be devastated if there is. I have organised a 50th Birthday party for myself early January. I see so many people not wearing masks on public transport or shops and a lot of unvaccinated people. It really infuriates me. I will have had booster by this time tomorrow
Do you think there will be another lockdown this winter. I am in Scotland. I will be devastated if there is. I have organised a 50th Birthday party for myself early January. I see so many people not wearing masks on public transport or shops and a lot of unvaccinated people. It really infuriates me. I will have had booster by this time tomorrow
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//i damn well hope not, i have plans and they aren't going to stop me this time.//
If your plans involve going to a pub or restaurant or have your hair cut and they shut the pubs, restaurants and hairdressers then they will stop you, Emmie. The problem is that it is not necessary to lock people down. All they need to do is to forcibly close the places they might want to visit.
//I never hear of doctors or nurses not wearing them and tellling there bosses thee a waste of time.//
No bob. And that’s because they wear surgical grade masks and are trained and disciplined in their use. The man on the Clapham Omnibus is not. But you know all this because we’ve done it all before.
//Why would Whitty, Van tam etc lie about it.//
It was the government’s strategy in March 2020 to frighten the population into compliance with their measures. They succeeded very well and wearing face masks was a part of that strategy which is still ongoing.
//Why were masks used in USa for flu 100 years ago. Why do Far East wear them regularly.//
God knows (but as an aside I didn't know they were used in the USA a century ago). I think people in the Far East wear them more to mitigate the effects of pollution than to prevent disease.
//Why in Spain Cyprus etc does everyone comply…//
I’ve just returned from Spain and I can tell you that everyone there (the Spaniards, not the tourists) does not comply.
//I maintain that the decision will be political rather than medical.//
I agree 100%. The sad fact is that the government has succeeded in inflicting the harshest restrictions on liberty that has ever been achieved in this country. It has managed to impose controls that even they thought were beyond their wildest dreams. Many people have gone along with this and even now some yearn for their reintroduction. The government will be reluctant to relinquish these powers and is constantly reminding the population that their liberty can be curtailed at a stroke. The constant threat of a return to restrictions is evident (as witnessed by this thread).
The manner with which Sweden dealt with the pandemic is interesting. They have had very few restrictions and, compared to most of the rest of the world, life has continued relatively normally. I largely agreed with their approach last year and was castigated for my views. Since then, the Armageddon that scientists predicted for Sweden has failed to materialise and their Covid figures are far better than the UK’s. They have suffered 114,000 cases per million of population compared to 141,000 in the UK and 1,400 deaths per million (UK = 2,100).
Since about September last year most of the decisions related to the “control” of Covid have indeed been political and were formulated largely to control demand on an inadequate NHS. But all it did was to delay that demand and now one in ten of the population is waiting for medical treatment.
If your plans involve going to a pub or restaurant or have your hair cut and they shut the pubs, restaurants and hairdressers then they will stop you, Emmie. The problem is that it is not necessary to lock people down. All they need to do is to forcibly close the places they might want to visit.
//I never hear of doctors or nurses not wearing them and tellling there bosses thee a waste of time.//
No bob. And that’s because they wear surgical grade masks and are trained and disciplined in their use. The man on the Clapham Omnibus is not. But you know all this because we’ve done it all before.
//Why would Whitty, Van tam etc lie about it.//
It was the government’s strategy in March 2020 to frighten the population into compliance with their measures. They succeeded very well and wearing face masks was a part of that strategy which is still ongoing.
//Why were masks used in USa for flu 100 years ago. Why do Far East wear them regularly.//
God knows (but as an aside I didn't know they were used in the USA a century ago). I think people in the Far East wear them more to mitigate the effects of pollution than to prevent disease.
//Why in Spain Cyprus etc does everyone comply…//
I’ve just returned from Spain and I can tell you that everyone there (the Spaniards, not the tourists) does not comply.
//I maintain that the decision will be political rather than medical.//
I agree 100%. The sad fact is that the government has succeeded in inflicting the harshest restrictions on liberty that has ever been achieved in this country. It has managed to impose controls that even they thought were beyond their wildest dreams. Many people have gone along with this and even now some yearn for their reintroduction. The government will be reluctant to relinquish these powers and is constantly reminding the population that their liberty can be curtailed at a stroke. The constant threat of a return to restrictions is evident (as witnessed by this thread).
The manner with which Sweden dealt with the pandemic is interesting. They have had very few restrictions and, compared to most of the rest of the world, life has continued relatively normally. I largely agreed with their approach last year and was castigated for my views. Since then, the Armageddon that scientists predicted for Sweden has failed to materialise and their Covid figures are far better than the UK’s. They have suffered 114,000 cases per million of population compared to 141,000 in the UK and 1,400 deaths per million (UK = 2,100).
Since about September last year most of the decisions related to the “control” of Covid have indeed been political and were formulated largely to control demand on an inadequate NHS. But all it did was to delay that demand and now one in ten of the population is waiting for medical treatment.
They said everything would be fine when we are vaccinated, and they are not. All that happened when we were all double jabbed is we stopped all taking any preventative measures. We discarded our masks, we stopped social distancing, we go to crowded venues. And it is allowed so everyone does it. Which is why a lot of people are getting it, getting ill and 200+ a day are dying.
And they are repeating the lie, when we are all boosted everything will be fine. There is a good chance it won’t be.
And they are repeating the lie, when we are all boosted everything will be fine. There is a good chance it won’t be.
12:53 rubbish gromit, more 5C cobras as usual. The vaccine has had immense benefit, all the figures are falling. In January daily deaths were over 1300, yesterday they were 145, all the 7 day averages are falling. It's obvious to anyone honestly analysing the figures that the vaccine is working. I don't know what your agenda is but rarely have I see such blatant refusal to face the facts. Do you want the pandemic to continue? Is that it? Are you one of the jobsworths loving the whole thing?
When we went into the third lockdown on 6th January daily deaths were 1000.
When lockdown ended in April we had 22 daily deaths, so a marked improvement helped by the early vaccinations
Now we have nearly 70% vaccinated but on Thursday we had 262 deaths. Our figures are going in the wrong direction.
When lockdown ended in April we had 22 daily deaths, so a marked improvement helped by the early vaccinations
Now we have nearly 70% vaccinated but on Thursday we had 262 deaths. Our figures are going in the wrong direction.
Gromit: "When we went into the third lockdown on 6th January daily deaths were 1000."
https:/
on 16th Jan 1306, even if it's a 1000 that's a lot worse than 145.
"When lockdown ended in April we had 22 daily deaths, so a marked improvement helped by the early vaccinations" - make your mind up, You've been saying the vaccination are not working for months.
"Now we have nearly 70% vaccinated but on Thursday we had 262 deaths. Our figures are going in the wrong direction. " - https:/
https:/
on 16th Jan 1306, even if it's a 1000 that's a lot worse than 145.
"When lockdown ended in April we had 22 daily deaths, so a marked improvement helped by the early vaccinations" - make your mind up, You've been saying the vaccination are not working for months.
"Now we have nearly 70% vaccinated but on Thursday we had 262 deaths. Our figures are going in the wrong direction. " - https:/
January 6th we went into a lengthy lockdown.
By 20th April when the third lockdown ended the daily deaths looked like this. https:/
Since April deaths have climbed https:/
Comparing end of lockdown to this week, daily deaths are rising not falling.
By 20th April when the third lockdown ended the daily deaths looked like this. https:/
Since April deaths have climbed https:/
Comparing end of lockdown to this week, daily deaths are rising not falling.
Gromit: "Since April deaths have climbed https:/
"Comparing end of lockdown to this week, daily deaths are rising not falling. " - look at the graph they are falling https:/
Of course they are higher than the April, end of lock down, but the trend is down 145 on thursday, 7 day average falling.
What is your agenda here? Are you a closet antivaxer or something? I just don't understand your angle on this, do you want the pandemic to continue?
"Comparing end of lockdown to this week, daily deaths are rising not falling. " - look at the graph they are falling https:/
Of course they are higher than the April, end of lock down, but the trend is down 145 on thursday, 7 day average falling.
What is your agenda here? Are you a closet antivaxer or something? I just don't understand your angle on this, do you want the pandemic to continue?
If any form of lockdown is introduced I think that it is likely to be along the lines adopted by Austria and now Australia, whilst some countries have adopted the tactic in selected or high infection rate araes. That tactic is a lockdown on people who have not had 2 jabs not longer than 6 months ago or a booster if that 6 months has passed. It is the reason that I have arranged and organised our "covid passports via the online NHS site. I also think that pretty soon businesses in the hospitality and entertainment sector will be asking for them or no entrance to an enclosed space. It is already the case for instance if we want to go to the cinema(Wales) and there is nothing to stop pubs and restaurants adopting the requirement voluntarily and even less to stop the powers that be from insisting on it.
//Surely our Government would be shooting themselves in the foot by imposing another lockdown as it would be tantamount to admitting that the vaccine didn't work.//
Any 'lockdown' is not going to be anything like the previous ones, there'll be more like what Togo says. But its not admitting vaccinnes dont work because there so effective at stopping death and serious illness. But its saying that take up is still too low especially in some community's, children can pass it on and there not vaccinated and mix alot, people are not taking the necessary boosters or taking proper isolation if there tested positive. Even some posters on here sneer at people getting tested or defend people who knowingly carry on as normal when there infected, or who wear masks voluntarily, or defend people who dont wear them on buses/trains saying there a waste of time.
Any 'lockdown' is not going to be anything like the previous ones, there'll be more like what Togo says. But its not admitting vaccinnes dont work because there so effective at stopping death and serious illness. But its saying that take up is still too low especially in some community's, children can pass it on and there not vaccinated and mix alot, people are not taking the necessary boosters or taking proper isolation if there tested positive. Even some posters on here sneer at people getting tested or defend people who knowingly carry on as normal when there infected, or who wear masks voluntarily, or defend people who dont wear them on buses/trains saying there a waste of time.
//...how about comparing mid November 2020.//
Why? In mid November 2020 nobody had been vaccinated. Unless you are suggesting that the vaccination programme has had no influence on infections and deaths, such a comparison is pointless.
I, too, am struggling to understand your agenda. The virus is here to stay. It always was thus. It cannot be prevented from spreading. That, too, was always going to be the case as I have maintained for 20 months. This has led me to be accused, from some quarters, of being a Covid denier when nothing can be further from the truth. All I deny is that its spread can be prevented. I don't have much time for this government and there have been many errors in the handling of the pandemic (which are easy to identify with the benefit of hindsight). But I believe they have done all they can. The NHS was protected from being overwhelmed 18 months ago; the vaccine has been provided to everybody who wants it. Yes, there are still 35,000 new cases a day. But that's because they are testing 20 times that number of people. The vast majority of those tested either don't have the virus or, if they do, they are suffering few if any symptoms. Hospitals are managing to deal with those who need treatment - as they should because that's what they're there for.
I simply hope that the government persists with a strategy that includes accepting that the spread of the virus cannot be prevented - because it cannot. All that restrictions do is delay the spread to a later date but they cause immeasurable harm in the meantime.
//Even some posters on here sneer at people getting tested or defend people who knowingly carry on as normal when there infected, //
You seem to believe any criticism of a strategy which you believe is the correct one amounts to "sneering", bob. It's not that at all. The process of testing upwards of a million people a day needs to stop. It is resulting in 30-40,000 of them testing positive and they, according to the strategy, should self-isolate. That is simply unsustainable. I'm not sneering at them, I'm criticising the strategy. You cannot have 30-40,000 people a day (i.e. a quarter of a million a week) suddenly withdrawing from their normal activities. That is not "living with the virus". It is fighting against its spread, which is futile.
Why? In mid November 2020 nobody had been vaccinated. Unless you are suggesting that the vaccination programme has had no influence on infections and deaths, such a comparison is pointless.
I, too, am struggling to understand your agenda. The virus is here to stay. It always was thus. It cannot be prevented from spreading. That, too, was always going to be the case as I have maintained for 20 months. This has led me to be accused, from some quarters, of being a Covid denier when nothing can be further from the truth. All I deny is that its spread can be prevented. I don't have much time for this government and there have been many errors in the handling of the pandemic (which are easy to identify with the benefit of hindsight). But I believe they have done all they can. The NHS was protected from being overwhelmed 18 months ago; the vaccine has been provided to everybody who wants it. Yes, there are still 35,000 new cases a day. But that's because they are testing 20 times that number of people. The vast majority of those tested either don't have the virus or, if they do, they are suffering few if any symptoms. Hospitals are managing to deal with those who need treatment - as they should because that's what they're there for.
I simply hope that the government persists with a strategy that includes accepting that the spread of the virus cannot be prevented - because it cannot. All that restrictions do is delay the spread to a later date but they cause immeasurable harm in the meantime.
//Even some posters on here sneer at people getting tested or defend people who knowingly carry on as normal when there infected, //
You seem to believe any criticism of a strategy which you believe is the correct one amounts to "sneering", bob. It's not that at all. The process of testing upwards of a million people a day needs to stop. It is resulting in 30-40,000 of them testing positive and they, according to the strategy, should self-isolate. That is simply unsustainable. I'm not sneering at them, I'm criticising the strategy. You cannot have 30-40,000 people a day (i.e. a quarter of a million a week) suddenly withdrawing from their normal activities. That is not "living with the virus". It is fighting against its spread, which is futile.
By comparing November 2020 to November 2021, Gromit is certainly not comparing like with like. Even by choosing April 2021 v. today presents a (somewhat) misleading picture. Deaths have risen since (and aren't meaningfully falling yet), but are roughly stable and have been for some time.
It may be that the next few weeks changes this picture, of course. Let us hope not. But deaths/hospitalisations would have to rise pretty rapidly in order to justify a lockdown at this point, and we can at least be fairly sure that they will continue to dip slightly over the next fortnight based on the trend in cases.
It may be that the next few weeks changes this picture, of course. Let us hope not. But deaths/hospitalisations would have to rise pretty rapidly in order to justify a lockdown at this point, and we can at least be fairly sure that they will continue to dip slightly over the next fortnight based on the trend in cases.
//...what numbers do you have for the resultant additional infections and hospital admissions?//
Not many.
Huge numbers of people are roaming round with the virus without knowing they have it. The estimate I saw yesterday suggests around 1m people currently have the virus. The self-isolation period is ten days so that means that the one million must have contracted the disease at the rate of 100,000 a day. Only 35-40,000 are being identified thus leaving 60,000 or so a day unaccounted for. As well as that. a large proportion of those told to self-isolate do not do so. I would imagine that those who have it but don't know together with those who have it but don't care are the cause of the bulk of the spread.
Not many.
Huge numbers of people are roaming round with the virus without knowing they have it. The estimate I saw yesterday suggests around 1m people currently have the virus. The self-isolation period is ten days so that means that the one million must have contracted the disease at the rate of 100,000 a day. Only 35-40,000 are being identified thus leaving 60,000 or so a day unaccounted for. As well as that. a large proportion of those told to self-isolate do not do so. I would imagine that those who have it but don't know together with those who have it but don't care are the cause of the bulk of the spread.
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