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Coronavirus, I Don't Want To Worry You, But..
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My son has a lot of business contacts in China & the far east & they're telling him that the Chinese are playing down the scale of the problem by a massive amount.
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A rather alarming piece in the Telegraph this morning of which this is just a small clip;
"The coronavirus numbers are patently fiction. Far more have died than the official tally of 493. A Lancet study last week by the University of Hong Kong estimated that the Chinese authorities have understated the epidemic tenfold. This was based on a spread rate of 2.68 per case and a doubling in total numbers every 6.4 days, matched with known travel movements within China and globally since the outbreak.
It calculated even then that the true figure for Wuhan was likely to be 76,000, and that Chongqing, Changsha, Nanchang, are already riddled with the disease. “Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable,” it said.
"The coronavirus numbers are patently fiction. Far more have died than the official tally of 493. A Lancet study last week by the University of Hong Kong estimated that the Chinese authorities have understated the epidemic tenfold. This was based on a spread rate of 2.68 per case and a doubling in total numbers every 6.4 days, matched with known travel movements within China and globally since the outbreak.
It calculated even then that the true figure for Wuhan was likely to be 76,000, and that Chongqing, Changsha, Nanchang, are already riddled with the disease. “Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable,” it said.
From Daily Mail Online today.
Tencent, China's second biggest company, has an 'Epidemic Situation Tracker'
Screengrabs purport to show leaked figures on the conglomerate's website
Lists death toll at a staggering 24,589 - more than 80 times the official figures
Meanwhile the infected is listed as over 154,000 - over 10 times official number
Tencent, China's second biggest company, has an 'Epidemic Situation Tracker'
Screengrabs purport to show leaked figures on the conglomerate's website
Lists death toll at a staggering 24,589 - more than 80 times the official figures
Meanwhile the infected is listed as over 154,000 - over 10 times official number
Did you know that Chinese leaders have made a decision to potentially sacrifice entire cities in order to save 11 “protected” cities elsewhere, according to a bombshell leak acquired by Hong Kong media professional Stephen Shiu Yeuk-yuen. As reported in The Epoch Times, “The 11 cities on the CCP’s priority list of being saved are Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Hangzhou, Xi’an, Shenyang, Harbin, and Urumqi. The CCP is prepared to protect these 11 cities at all cost, even if it means sacrificing other cities, Shiu said.” This secret meeting supposedly took place on Jan. 25th. Based on information leaked from this meeting, it now appears the Chinese government leadership sees this coronavirus pandemic as an existential threat to its own existence, and it has made the decision to sacrifice millions of lives, if necessary, to protect the core cities that drive China’s economic and manufacturing power.
Who knows?
Who knows?
""According to research from Professor Gabriel Matthew Leung from the Hong Kong Medical School, the coronavirus outbreak will eventually infect 18 million people in China, causing between one and two million fatalities. Chinese officials appear ready to accept these fatalities as long as they can save the industrial cities listed above.
The number of infected people will double every 6.2 days, according to his research, although that rate could be reduced through strong quarantine and isolation measures.
A different model reportedly predicts 183 million infections by the end of February if the virus is not contained. However, that number seems difficult to achieve, even if the number of infected doubles every 6.2 days. In order to achieve 183 million infections by the end of February, there would have to be roughly 40+ million infections right now, and that number seems orders of magnitude too high.""
The number of infected people will double every 6.2 days, according to his research, although that rate could be reduced through strong quarantine and isolation measures.
A different model reportedly predicts 183 million infections by the end of February if the virus is not contained. However, that number seems difficult to achieve, even if the number of infected doubles every 6.2 days. In order to achieve 183 million infections by the end of February, there would have to be roughly 40+ million infections right now, and that number seems orders of magnitude too high.""
You are worrying me. As I have just said on another thread, the latest case is here in Brighton and the patient was at A&E in the Royal Sussex hospital where I have been going regularly and have to go again soon. Patient was tested on Sunday night when he/she turned up at A&E but the result came back today as positive, five days later. Shocked it took that long and where was he from testing to result. And he didn't fly in from China either, from Asia apparently is all I can find at the moment.
@17.17 your visits before Sunday night should not be a problem, as for any further visits, then I would ask for advice from the hospital before you go. This is a point I've tried to get across in another post, what solid preparations are being put in place. If everyone turns up at A&E with cold/flu thinking they have the virus, and some may, they've not got the staff to cope.
I can certainly believe that the numbers of infected are being grossly under-reported -- and so too the number of dead -- but I'd be surprised if the fatality rate is so much higher than the current indications of 2%. The leak Togo mentions would be consistent with almost a 20% rate.
One reason I don't believe it is that even if the death toll were so high it would be difficult for it to be *confirmed* that it were due to Coronavirus rather than any related causes. I'm sure the number of cases and deaths will rise and rise, and that the current figures are not the true scale, but I also doubt that Chinese authorities know enough of the true scale themselves to be able to suppress it.
One reason I don't believe it is that even if the death toll were so high it would be difficult for it to be *confirmed* that it were due to Coronavirus rather than any related causes. I'm sure the number of cases and deaths will rise and rise, and that the current figures are not the true scale, but I also doubt that Chinese authorities know enough of the true scale themselves to be able to suppress it.
I wouldn't want to worry you Lady. Like you I am due to attend a local hospital next week and am cautiously keeping my eye on developments. I think that all most of us can do is be aware and ready for the worst. I have seen the thread regarding hospital beds and made my point that this would be the last of my concerns should this "virus" take hold. I do know that the local health authorities are taking it seriously......they have even had a meeting. :))
We talked about what to do should this become something that we fear and have agreed to stay home and care for each other rather than use the hospitals and surgeries. I am waiting to see whether a vaccine is indeed rush produced as is being reported as possible. Hell of a thing.....survive illness against the odds(you and I both) and get "bat flu". Haha keep a sense of perspective here Togo.
We talked about what to do should this become something that we fear and have agreed to stay home and care for each other rather than use the hospitals and surgeries. I am waiting to see whether a vaccine is indeed rush produced as is being reported as possible. Hell of a thing.....survive illness against the odds(you and I both) and get "bat flu". Haha keep a sense of perspective here Togo.
True teacake re earlier visits. But like this woman in the Brighton Argus, I'd like to know where the patient went before he became aware he was ill and possibly after if he wasn't kept in quarantine. Two members my family work in Brighton and they want to know as well.
// Valerie Painter, who regularly uses the Royal Sussex County Hospital, has an impaired immune system, which puts her at an increased risk of death should she contract the virus. The worried Hove woman is calling on the Department of Health and Social Care to release more information about the patient. said: "The population of Brighton and Hove is very densely populated. We are living cheek by jowl in tiny streets close together. Where has this person been on the buses and trains? What kind of tracing are the authorities doing?"\\
// Valerie Painter, who regularly uses the Royal Sussex County Hospital, has an impaired immune system, which puts her at an increased risk of death should she contract the virus. The worried Hove woman is calling on the Department of Health and Social Care to release more information about the patient. said: "The population of Brighton and Hove is very densely populated. We are living cheek by jowl in tiny streets close together. Where has this person been on the buses and trains? What kind of tracing are the authorities doing?"\\
Indeed: it is almost certainly the case that the number of cases is much higher than the official figures. Probably as much as anything because the authorities don’t know about them.
But I’d be surprised if large numbers of deaths are being covered up as that would be a hard thing to do even for an autocracy
But I’d be surprised if large numbers of deaths are being covered up as that would be a hard thing to do even for an autocracy
All governments will keep something like this low key for as long as possible, understandable to a degree as not to cause a panic, but for ministers to just keep saying that the UK is low risk is poppy cock. People need to be told what action to take should they feel they have a problem, you can't just have folk turning up at A&E willy nilly, that's if yours hasn't been closed due to cut backs. :0)
Right now the UK *is* low-risk. Three cases out of 60 million doesn't speak to anything else. For the time being all people should do is take the usual sensible precautions they probably should be anyway, ie keeping good hygiene habits. I think it would be irresponsible, on the contrary, to suggest that anything else is necessary for the general public beyond that, although it's good to see the NHS taking some preparatory steps.
Hmmm Been reading up on The Lancet articles about this virus and this caught my eye.
""The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak is a major challenge for clinicians. The clinical course of patients remains to be fully characterised, little data are available that describe the disease pathogenesis, and no pharmacological therapies of proven efficacy yet exist."" Dated 07/02/2020.
https:/
https:/
""The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak is a major challenge for clinicians. The clinical course of patients remains to be fully characterised, little data are available that describe the disease pathogenesis, and no pharmacological therapies of proven efficacy yet exist."" Dated 07/02/2020.
https:/
https:/
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