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The Drake equation needs a bit of a change IMHO

It goes straight from the probability of life to the probability of intelligent life.

There is a general assumption that life is very common based on the fact that it arose very rapidly on Earth and that seems pretty reasonable to me.

The assumption also commonly made is that once you have life...
14:30 Thu 23rd Aug 2012
The Drake equation needs a bit of a change IMHO

It goes straight from the probability of life to the probability of intelligent life.

There is a general assumption that life is very common based on the fact that it arose very rapidly on Earth and that seems pretty reasonable to me.

The assumption also commonly made is that once you have life evolutionary forces will drive to intelligent life in quite a large number of cases.

I think there is a rather big factor missing in these which is the probability that complex life arises.

Life evolved on Earth about as soon as the heavy bombardment of meteorites and comets stopped but for 3 of the 4 billion years life was simple - single celled goo.

On Earth Complex life looks like at least two different strands where one invaded the other and created a complex cell.

That sort of event may have actually have been very improbable - possibly millions to one against.

That throws a major spanner in the works of the Drake equation. It's a major reason that finding any proof of an extra terrestrial life form alive or fossilised would be so important - if it's muticellular it would imply that complex life is common.

We could just be in a Universe inhabited by goo
If you can take 3 billion letters of a 4 letter code, jumble them up and spit out a human without outside intervention then you far away from statistical reality.
The creator or designer may have not made the building blocks of life but the assembly would be unachievable without outside help.
I am more concerned with the question ''is there intelligent life on this planet '' ? The way that humans behave with each other all over the world begs the question would any intelligent alien life form want to associate with us ?

WR.
Oh, dear, pdq. That's such an old argument, and just putting it forward in the modern language of genetic sequencing doesn't make it any more logical or convincing than it was 300 or 400 years ago. But hey, this is SCIENCE, not RELIGION & SPIRITUALITY, so let's not clutter it with stuff that belongs in a different group.
Who says the creator is not an advanced scientist
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I tend to agree with bert_h. The universe must be teeming with life but the vastness of it all makes it virtually certain that we will never be in contact, even travel/comminication at warp 100, to use Sci fi parlance, would be impractical even in the local stellar neighbourhood.
site not available, so obviously not alone, some dingbat telling us that you can't access the info.

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