Pandemic The Birth And Death

[retrocop]

Stick with this if you will. For those,like me, have difficulty in understanding the spread of this virus and the number crunching figures that our armchair experts throw at us this is presented in simpler terms.
Unlike the usual lengthy youtube dross we are urged to watch on this site this lady is a proff who knows her facts. For our Answerbank No-Hopers and Doomongers this presentation gives hope unless you mutate into a zombie.









https://uk.video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=uh3_news_web_gs&p=Epidemics+and+the+end+of+humankind+%7C+Rosalind+Eggo+%7C+TEDxThessaloniki#id=1&;vid=bf079f085b290cf50f23bf4309d413de&action=click

[jim360]

https://www.ted.com/talks/rosalind_eggo_epidemics_and_the_end_of_humankind?language=en

In case (like me) Yahoo is behaving badly and doesn't let you view the page.

[retrocop]

No problems my end but thanks for the alternative link.

[Zacs-Master]

The video is a year old and theoretical. Assistant Prof Eggo has a twitter account where you can see how theories have actually played-out and her latest thinking. I’m nowhere near educated enough to understand the science but there’s still some interesting stuff on there.
@rozeggo.

[retrocop]

That's what makes it more interesting. The fact that this lecture was given before Corvid-19 reared it's ugly head and demonstrates the spread and eventual demise of it. I found it informative.( at last)

[jim360]

The question I'd have is why this is directed at doom-mongers specifically. Prior to Covid-19 I didn't know much about epidemiology (and I still don't), but I don't find wholly comforting the idea that even a super-infectious, super-deadly pathogen wouldn't wipe humanity out if the difference is merely a large-ish town. Covid-19 is nowhere near that scale, but it's still something to be seriously concerned about. Eggo et al more recently provided an estimate that as much as a fifth of the world's population would be at increased risk of developing severe Covid-19, which is still pretty scary. "Severe" doesn't necessarily mean "fatal", and "in some cases the increase in risk may be quite modest", but that still would represent, in an uncontrolled scenario, a significant death toll.

[jim360]

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/Global_risk_factors.html

[THECORBYLOON]

I don't think there was any doubt the virus would decline eventually but the concern was the total number of deaths with and without mitigation.

[retrocop]

Unlike some on answerbank I am just presenting someone who has the credentials to explain the effects of pandemics. Unlike some on answerbank I don't pretend to know what it is all about and I found it a darn sight more useful than the carp I am reading on answerbank. Simples. If anyone thinks it is specifically 'aimed ' at them then that is their misunderstanding and should get a grip. :-)

[jim360]

Fair enough, although I'm not sure that anyone was pretending to know what it was all about. For my part I've been describing essentially the same model as Dr Eggo.

[retrocop]

Perhaps some, myself included, need a pretty,intelligent lady to present and help us understand it better. Pretty pictures help. :-)

[jim360]

I tried the pretty intelligent lady thing but Sqad said it turned him on too much so I dropped it :P

[Mamyalynne]

Snortle.

[retrocop]

Lol

[Peter Pedant]

yup standard graphic on S - I - R model
there is quite a lot of it around now
you tube thingeys on corvo and the future
and whether we have one

someone has said she has changed her mind
has she?
and what to?