The Cheltenham Festival 2021

[Ken4155]

It will no doubt be strange viewing this year with no crowds being allowed through the gates, but ITV are to include a recording of the famous 'Cheltenham Roar' when the tapes go up for the first race. They have not yet decided whether this will continue throughout the Festival. In my most humble of opinions, i believe they should - it would certainly add to the atmosphere. What say you, fellow punters?
I have been perusing the stats for the opening race, the Supreme Novices, and while the form lines would suggest either Appreciate It (5/4) or Metier (9/2) should win, there are a couple of strong stats that threaten to put me off both. Favourites have won 4 of the last 20 runnings - and none of those was under 3/1 - and horses who began their careers on the flat account for only four placed runs in the last 13 years.
Another strong stat is that only one winner from the last 10 years did not win last time out.

I'm leaning toward the JonJo trained Soaring Glory @ around the 6/1 mark.

[Togo]

Here we are I found it again. The mush who had the big payday.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/horseracing/14333778/punter-wins-million-pounds-paddy-power/

[Ken4155]

I think he was watching a recording of the race, there, Togo. Nowhere near excited enough. I'd have still been doing victory laps of the block if i'd won £1m on the nags :-)))))
Just so long as he doesn't give PP their money back :-//

[lankeela]

Sadly Altior is out of the Champion Chase due to coughing.

[grumpy01]

I see that Coneygree is being used to do small deliveries around his local village.

[Togo]

Been reviewing the card again Ken and have a sneaky regard for Aspire Tower in the 3.05. Looks like Bromhead has had him tucked away since Christmas. Second last year in the Triumph so we know he goes here.

[Togo]

Just had a shufty at the betting and see that it has come in 5 points today. Interesting.

[grumpy01]

If Altair coughing
chances are other Henderson horses may not give their true running either.

[Togo]

You may be right there Grumpy. Am keeping my eye on the money and if the odds on Dame De Compagnie take a walk I may reconsider. Most yards have a testing system that shames the testing for human viruses or contagious conditions mind, so if they run it usually means a clean scope. If a horse has had a bit of a bug and the scope come back OK though, it doesn't tell us whether it has had the bug and not top of it's game. The horse can't tell us either.

[Ken4155]

Togo, horses tend to show they're not well by their feeding habits. A good groom knows his horse better than anyone and they are no doubt instructed to inform the 'gaffer' immediately if any of the horses are off their scran. In Altior's case, the horse coughed after exercise (don't we all?) and an immediate scope showed up something Henderson didn't like. 2nd year on the trot Altior has had to be withdrawn from the Festival. Shame.
I will no doubt be backing a few of Henderson's horses this week so i too will be keeping an ear to the ground - just to see if i can hear any more coughing coming from Seven Barrows :-/

[Ken4155]

Still trying to find some decent offers for existing customers but they're all much of a muchness, and are offers you find almost every weekend:-( However, i have discovered that Sky go 1/5 odds to 7 places in the 2.30 and Willie Hill go 1/5 odds to 5 places in the 3.05 - Togo, your Aspire Tower is 22/1 with both 365 (4 places) and Willie Hill (5 places)?
I have a decision to make; do i take the 33s at 365 and settle for 5 places for Balko Saint (4.15) or do i take the 25s with Sky for the 6th place?

[Togo]

Morning Ken. It is a shocker here. Blowing one and hissin down. I have got a dental appointment at 12.30 so will be scrambling a bit to get back for the off. Should be back before tooth hurty though. Boom Boom. :))

[Ken4155]

I don't usually groan so early in the morning, Togo, but i've just made an exception for you :-)
Just placed my first bet; don't use Ladbrokes a lot but, in response to an email, logged in and received a £5 free bet to use on any of the 7 races. So, in my infinite wisdom, i've decided that Aye Right (2.30 - who'dathought) is probably my best chance of a winner and that's where the fiver has gone @ 11/2 for a poss return of £27.50.
I am now about to put all my bets on save for the Lucky 15/e.w. acca. If any of them are n/r's i can always cash out and choose another.

[Ken4155]

ITV 7 (taken out the odds on and done a £1 e.w. acca on the remaining 6); Soaring Glory, Shishkin, Aye Right, Guetapan Collonges, Epatante, Concertista & Busselton.

1.20; £1 e.w. Grumpy Charlie @ 33/1 - 365
2.30; £1 e.w. Nietzsche @ 25/1 - Sky (7 places)
3.05; £1 e.w. Silver Streak @ 22/1 - WH (5 places)
3.40; £1 e.w. Indefatigable @ 28/1 - 365
4.15; £2 e.w. Balko Saint @ 25/1 - Sky (6 places)
4.50; £1 e.w. Snow Leopardess @ 16/1 - Sky (4 places)

Placepot; 1-6-2-9-2-6

Which just leaves the main bet and, as i said, i'll wait for the n/r's before posting.

[Togo]

Sorted. Have done the p/pot & j/pot and for now just 2 tentative punts. £1 E?W Acca, E/W Doubles & Trebles**** Then a little Trixie on the smaller odds runners⁕⁕⁕ I can maybe cover and do singles as the racing takes place and may do a little E/W on Aspire Tower later. I also did a little acca on the 7 most picked horses in the ITV7, because the option was there as usual, just about all the favourites and I don't even know what prompted me to do it. Good luck to you all.

Soaring Glory* @ 11/1 1.20
Almankind ⁕ @ 11/2 1.55
Alnadam* @7/1 2.30(extra place)
Goshen⁕ @5/1 3.05
Dame De Compagnie* @15/2 3.40
Riviere D'etel* @8/1 4.15
Next Destination⁕ @5/2 4.50

[Ken4155]

Main bet;

1.20; Soaring Glory @ 11/1
2.30; Aye Right @ 6/1
4.15; Busselton @ 10/1
4.50; Remastered @ 9/2

4 x £2.50 win singles, 20p L15, £1 e.w. acca (with Sky for the extra places). 4 placed = poss £30, 4 winners = £5,048.

Also done a £2 Trixie/£2 Treble at the other meetings;

2.45 So; Lord Oberon @ 9/4
2.55 Se; Guetapan Collonges @ 9/4
3.20 So; Custard The Dragon @ 11/4

Poss return of £228.

Son is working so he's sent me a tenner to join with some of my bets - so he's in the L15 and the Trixie/Treble.

Be lucky people.

[Spicerack]

Hard to see beyond the Favs in the first few races. Just put a S/Y on for interest. Might have a bet be in the last couple, again, just for something to watch/listen to.
Better days coming, I reckon.

[Ken4155]

Better days coming? Don't think a great deal about tomorrow's card, Spice.

[Togo]

Who could deny Vintage Clouds that win? Brilliant training performance by Sue Smith.

[Spicerack]

^grrrr. Lol. ;-)
Small e/w Glorious Zoff here.
Surprised to see Concertista caught on the run-in.

[Ken4155]

First thing i look at is previous Festival form, Togo. Trouble is, that's the only 'positive' box it ticked. It did, however, tick 2 of the 3 main 'negative' boxes. :-(
Nearly all of my e.w. bets have finished 1 place lower than 'allowed' :-((
2 winners and a 2nd in the Trixie bet - £24.78 returned.

Gonna have a look at tonight's football, then it's on to tomorrow's Cheltenham races.