How Do They Get It So Wrong?

[pastafreak]

The Met office that is. On my tablet the app shows sun all day. Less than 5% chance of rain now
What's it been doing the last ten minutes...?

[teacher1]

The Met Office says Thunderstorms all day ...... do you get thunderstorms with a sunny blue sky ?

[naomi24]

I read the other day that a blast from the Arctic was due this week. Goodness knows where that's gone but it's not here!

[andy-hughes]

Apparently, predicting weather over a small land mass like ours is notoriously tricky, because things can, and often do, change very quickly.

[emmie]

its beautiful here in the capital, sun and more sun and warm to boot...

[teacher1]

Now the Met Office is telling me I am having sunshine with less than 5% chance of rain ...... and what is it doing now, - p...ing down !

[emmie]

it was raining overnight and into the early hours....

[Barmaid]

It hammered it down here this morning and turned our yard into a lake. Thankfully, we are at a high point so it has drained away. It's sunny here now, but there is a lot of water about. Very windy. Apparently, a lot of shops in the town are closed due to flooding.

They did forecast it here, but got the time wrong. I tend now to work on the basis of looking out of the windows.

[sanmac]

A cloudless sunny 16 here and going up to 21 this afternoon...Nice weather for a visit to the bar patio later on I'm thinking:)

[Hopkirk]

I didn't put washing on until late morning because of forecast rain.

It turned out to be perfect drying weather all morning.

[THECORBYLOON]

A 5% chance of rain is more likely than there being no chance whatsoever and it was raining so they weren't wrong.

[Barsel]

Was ok here in Manchester up until a few minutes ago and now it's going dark.
Don't need a forecast to tell me it's going to rain any minute.

[sanmac]

I don't why the forecasters use those ridiculous percentage figures, they should just say that there's a 50% chance of rain...It either rains or it doesn't:)

[gingejbee]

Don't agree sanmac. It gives the probability of it raining...so 5% is a 1 in 20 chance of rain...25%, a 1 in 4 chance. Gives a better idea of the chance of rain.
Didn't you do "possibility/probability" at school?

[gingejbee]

...or were you just making a mathematical joke?

[theshedman]

I only live around 10 miles from the met office and they don't even get it right for us.

[Barsel]

That might be because there are no windows in the met office.

[Barsel]

According to the Manchester Evening news, we are going to get thunderstorms and torrential rain in parts of Greater Manchester.
So, better put my sandals away and get my wellies out for my trip to Tesco.

[-SharonA-]

We were told to expect arctic weather later this week!!!!

[Barsel]

Get your snow boots out Sharon.

[lady-janine]

For once they got it right down here. Said it would rain this afternoon at about 3 o'clock. Just got the washing in on time as at 3.04pm it started thundering down.