My Dearest Friend Ducksie - R I P
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Is The Uk Heading Towards A Partial Return To The E/U.
Senior members of Sunak's Govt are reportedly planning to move Britain into a Swiss Style agreement with The E.U. Govt sources have suggested that pursuing frictionless trade means moving towards an agreement. .... Is this the start of rejoining the E.U..
Answers
Hymie It's so much worse than that. Remainers had one goal...to remain in the EU. But there are so many different kinds of Leaver. You had those who wants to opt for a soft Brexit, those who wanted a hard Brexit, those who wanted a combination of the two (
15:42 Sun 20th Nov 2022
gulliver1
I don't think it's the start of any return to the EU.
There was a democratic vote and we voted to leave. The Leavers would rightly be furious. Imagine if Remain had won and the vote were somehow overturned years later!
However, since then we've seen how much of a disaster Brexit has become for the country - even .George Eustice has come out and said that the trade deal with Australia is worthles...and just about every other trade deal is a rollover from when we were in the EU (ie. they're not 'new').
Brexit will constrain economic growth by 4% over the coming years according to the OBR(cf. https:/
We need a better trade deal with the EU.
Project Fear should now be renamed to Project I-Told-You-So.
I don't think it's the start of any return to the EU.
There was a democratic vote and we voted to leave. The Leavers would rightly be furious. Imagine if Remain had won and the vote were somehow overturned years later!
However, since then we've seen how much of a disaster Brexit has become for the country - even .George Eustice has come out and said that the trade deal with Australia is worthles...and just about every other trade deal is a rollover from when we were in the EU (ie. they're not 'new').
Brexit will constrain economic growth by 4% over the coming years according to the OBR(cf. https:/
We need a better trade deal with the EU.
Project Fear should now be renamed to Project I-Told-You-So.
"Switzerland and the EU have a close economic relationship based on a series of bilateral agreements, giving the country direct access to parts of the EU's internal market including the free movement of people"
Indeed they do. But what's missing from that quote is the fact the the EU is unhappy with that arrangement and has been pressing the Swiss to agree to an all-encompassing "Treaty". The reason for this is that under the current system, the Swiss can opt out of individual aspects of their relationship with the EU as it suits them (and they have on occasions in the past). The EU doesn't like that idea because they have no control over it. They want a Treaty that covers everything where the only opportunity for opt outs would be to withdraw from the Treaty entirely. This would put the Swiss in a difficult position because, as EU members have found, there are often aspects of membership that do not suit, but they are stuck with it or leave.
Talks between the EU and Switzerland on this issue have been going on for donkey's years but broke down about eighteen months ago:
https:/
The result of this is that the bilateral agreements will either expire (if they are time bound) or the EU will withdraw from them anyway because it essentially wants the Swiss to be subject to all of its legislation as if it was a member. Any UK government getting involved in anything similar needs it bumps felt.
Indeed they do. But what's missing from that quote is the fact the the EU is unhappy with that arrangement and has been pressing the Swiss to agree to an all-encompassing "Treaty". The reason for this is that under the current system, the Swiss can opt out of individual aspects of their relationship with the EU as it suits them (and they have on occasions in the past). The EU doesn't like that idea because they have no control over it. They want a Treaty that covers everything where the only opportunity for opt outs would be to withdraw from the Treaty entirely. This would put the Swiss in a difficult position because, as EU members have found, there are often aspects of membership that do not suit, but they are stuck with it or leave.
Talks between the EU and Switzerland on this issue have been going on for donkey's years but broke down about eighteen months ago:
https:/
The result of this is that the bilateral agreements will either expire (if they are time bound) or the EU will withdraw from them anyway because it essentially wants the Swiss to be subject to all of its legislation as if it was a member. Any UK government getting involved in anything similar needs it bumps felt.
Hymie
It's so much worse than that.
Remainers had one goal...to remain in the EU.
But there are so many different kinds of Leaver. You had those who wants to opt for a soft Brexit, those who wanted a hard Brexit, those who wanted a combination of the two (Canadian-style), and the Tory party has to balance those entrenched attitudes with the ERG-side of the party, and the traditionalists and the progressives.
This is only the start of the war. Brexit has been an absolute disaster for the country and people are now beginning realise it.
The UK is the first country in history to enact economic sanctions on itself.
Never happened before.
It's so much worse than that.
Remainers had one goal...to remain in the EU.
But there are so many different kinds of Leaver. You had those who wants to opt for a soft Brexit, those who wanted a hard Brexit, those who wanted a combination of the two (Canadian-style), and the Tory party has to balance those entrenched attitudes with the ERG-side of the party, and the traditionalists and the progressives.
This is only the start of the war. Brexit has been an absolute disaster for the country and people are now beginning realise it.
The UK is the first country in history to enact economic sanctions on itself.
Never happened before.
No. We haven't properly left yet anyway. Lots of laws yet to be repealed. I admit to having hoped we'd be further on the way by now, but the country has been handicapped by a 'remainer-blob', a pandemic and now, of course the Ukraine war. Our economy is holding up well compared to many european ones. We said it would take 20 years - I'd now make it 25 - to see where we stood in the world.
//not so sure. In the last quarter, EU output was up .2%, so was France's, Germany's was up .3%, the USA's by .6%. Britain's was down .2%. We're going in the opposite direction.//
Cherry-picking one quarter’s figure in isolation can be misleading. The UK’s GDP growth (year on year) has consistently been higher than that of the Eurozone, Germany, France and the G7 for each of the last four quarters. In fact it has often been considerably higher:
Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22
UK 8.9% 10.9% 4.4% 2.4%
Eurozone 4.8% 5.5% 4.3% 2.1%
Germany 1.2% 3.5% 1.7% 1.1%
France 5.1% 4.7% 4.2% 1.0%
G7 4.7% 4.1% 2.4% NA
What is true is that the UK’s economy is now 0.2% smaller than pre-pandemic levels, Germany’s is 0.2% higher, that of France is 1.1% higher and the Eurozone 2.1% higher. However, all economies have faced different problems with the pandemic and Ukraine and each has dealt with them in different ways. There were double digit swings in GDP for many nations during that time; individual countries have recovered at different rates and the differences now apparent are tiny in comparison. Not only that, the effects of these crises are not over; Germany’s GDP is forecast to shrink by 0.7% (the UK’s is forecast to remain level).
None of this supports the notion that “Brexit has been an absolute disaster for the country.” If the UK’s recovery had been 10% behind everybody else’s I might tend to agree (but see below). But it isn’t. It’s near enough the same +/- a few decimal points depending which figures you look at.
//But there are so many different kinds of Leaver. You had those who wants to opt for a soft Brexit, those who wanted a hard Brexit, those who wanted a combination of the two (Canadian-style),//
Anybody who voted to leave and expected the UK to remain entangled with the EU to the extent that Switzerland is was foolish. That was never going to happen (arguably Switzerland would be better off as a full member). They should have voted to remain.
However, none of this matters. The principle aim of Brexit was to ensure the UK is no longer a member of the EU. More than that, it was not simply to cross the UK off the list of members: It was to ensure that the country was not entangled with any of its institutions. That has been achieved. The odd few tenths of a percentage point apparent as the global economy recovers from the pandemic is neither here nor there: it is simply noise.
Cherry-picking one quarter’s figure in isolation can be misleading. The UK’s GDP growth (year on year) has consistently been higher than that of the Eurozone, Germany, France and the G7 for each of the last four quarters. In fact it has often been considerably higher:
Q4 21 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22
UK 8.9% 10.9% 4.4% 2.4%
Eurozone 4.8% 5.5% 4.3% 2.1%
Germany 1.2% 3.5% 1.7% 1.1%
France 5.1% 4.7% 4.2% 1.0%
G7 4.7% 4.1% 2.4% NA
What is true is that the UK’s economy is now 0.2% smaller than pre-pandemic levels, Germany’s is 0.2% higher, that of France is 1.1% higher and the Eurozone 2.1% higher. However, all economies have faced different problems with the pandemic and Ukraine and each has dealt with them in different ways. There were double digit swings in GDP for many nations during that time; individual countries have recovered at different rates and the differences now apparent are tiny in comparison. Not only that, the effects of these crises are not over; Germany’s GDP is forecast to shrink by 0.7% (the UK’s is forecast to remain level).
None of this supports the notion that “Brexit has been an absolute disaster for the country.” If the UK’s recovery had been 10% behind everybody else’s I might tend to agree (but see below). But it isn’t. It’s near enough the same +/- a few decimal points depending which figures you look at.
//But there are so many different kinds of Leaver. You had those who wants to opt for a soft Brexit, those who wanted a hard Brexit, those who wanted a combination of the two (Canadian-style),//
Anybody who voted to leave and expected the UK to remain entangled with the EU to the extent that Switzerland is was foolish. That was never going to happen (arguably Switzerland would be better off as a full member). They should have voted to remain.
However, none of this matters. The principle aim of Brexit was to ensure the UK is no longer a member of the EU. More than that, it was not simply to cross the UK off the list of members: It was to ensure that the country was not entangled with any of its institutions. That has been achieved. The odd few tenths of a percentage point apparent as the global economy recovers from the pandemic is neither here nor there: it is simply noise.
Thank you N.J.. I was trying to recall some of the figures I heard today. The whole point was to cut loose and it's certainly not been disastrous. A (British) friend in France is very worried indeed about the future there. The way the E.U. attacked and pressured the Swiss should have put any sane person off giving them any power over them.
The judge is a saint that posts this stuff (15:33) all the time. All of course ignored by the anti British types but I applaud the patience you have judge. I can't be bothered with the naysaying poltroons so much but I am grateful for your continued resistance to the 5C. So determined are they that we are controlled by unelected foreign bureaucrats that they continually spout their cobras whilst ignoring the facts.
Tora. I have asked you this before. Why does being a remainer make me anti British and a 5C whatever that is but I guess it's insulting?
I would love to see Britain thriving and doing well. It saddens me it's in the state it is for whatever reason.
Your constant insults will negate any informed or interesting contribution you could put forward.
I would love to see Britain thriving and doing well. It saddens me it's in the state it is for whatever reason.
Your constant insults will negate any informed or interesting contribution you could put forward.
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