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Why Is Covid-19 Less Survivable In The Uk?
According to a study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle released yesterday, the UK could be the European country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic, suffering a death toll over 66,000 by August.
The IHME, which produces the Global Burden of Disease study, believes that deaths in the UK will peak with an estimated 2,932 deaths on 17 April, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by 4 August.
In the EU, Italy, Spain and France are forecast to suffer the highest death tolls, at 20,200, 19,209 and 15,058 respectively by 4 August.
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The IHME, which produces the Global Burden of Disease study, believes that deaths in the UK will peak with an estimated 2,932 deaths on 17 April, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by 4 August.
In the EU, Italy, Spain and France are forecast to suffer the highest death tolls, at 20,200, 19,209 and 15,058 respectively by 4 August.
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This link from the website quoted by GROMIT ncludes a graph showing projected number of deaths each day. Numbers before 7.4.20 are actual figures.
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If you click on the graph, you can see the number for each day.
Using the internet wayback machine, I can see the figure for 6.4.20 was projected to be 1,258 (range 547 to 2,508) but the actual figure was much lower at 786.
The projected figure for to-day is 1,233 (range 480 to 2,614) so we will see later to-day how close that is.
https:/
If you click on the graph, you can see the number for each day.
Using the internet wayback machine, I can see the figure for 6.4.20 was projected to be 1,258 (range 547 to 2,508) but the actual figure was much lower at 786.
The projected figure for to-day is 1,233 (range 480 to 2,614) so we will see later to-day how close that is.
Here is the source that is, as far as I can tell, the only site "reporting this scaremongering.
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I posted this at 13.26 on a different thread....but it was ignored by the op.
""//France is expected to have 15,000 deaths by August.
The projected UK death toll is estimated at 66,000.//
Ignore that bit of irresponsible guesswork from an obscure American university calling itself an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and only repeated in the Metro by James Hockaday. Not exactly known for responsible "news reporting". Still.....what do you expect from the source at 11:42. Below is an extract of a comment on the site.
"I feel this is irresponsible reporting and nonsense predictions. Models have large assumptions, so changing those can dramatically change the outcome. This model doesn't correlate with any other studies that are around and is pure scaremongering, as is the reason that this "news" outlet has published it.""
""//France is expected to have 15,000 deaths by August.
The projected UK death toll is estimated at 66,000.//
Ignore that bit of irresponsible guesswork from an obscure American university calling itself an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and only repeated in the Metro by James Hockaday. Not exactly known for responsible "news reporting". Still.....what do you expect from the source at 11:42. Below is an extract of a comment on the site.
"I feel this is irresponsible reporting and nonsense predictions. Models have large assumptions, so changing those can dramatically change the outcome. This model doesn't correlate with any other studies that are around and is pure scaremongering, as is the reason that this "news" outlet has published it.""
it's on plenty of sites
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Though of course if it isn't on breitbart, it didn't happen.
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Though of course if it isn't on breitbart, it didn't happen.
I wouldn't focus on the central figure at this point, when the 95% uncertainty range is so high. Nevertheless, it remains nonsensical to describe this as "anti-British" or scaremongering. We're seeing that hospital capacity, death tolls, etc, are significant, and there's still every chance that this will become a pandemic that rivals the 1918 flu in its scope. Especially in the US right now, death rates are spiking, and by the weekend they'll have overtaken Italy in terms of reported deaths.
Here is a prediction which, barring something akin to a miracle, will come to pass into fact: The UK will have more cases together with more than double the number of deaths of Iran within the coming three days (maybe within two days). Not long ago the world was aghast at the state of things in Iran which has 20 million more people. Ah, no wonder because Iran can of course scarcely be counted among developed, civilised countries, it was implied. What does that make the UK ?
//the Uk has a denser population that Italy,France and Spain//
I'm not sure the density of the population of a country is as relevant as the density of the cities/towns and villages in this case. Madrid and Barcelona are probably comparable with London, and people in towns and villages here in Spain tend to live closer together than in the UK I would think.
I'm not sure the density of the population of a country is as relevant as the density of the cities/towns and villages in this case. Madrid and Barcelona are probably comparable with London, and people in towns and villages here in Spain tend to live closer together than in the UK I would think.
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