As Usual The Eu Are Playing

[cassa333]

Hard ball.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46560807

They will perhaps give a few ‘assurances’ but they mean nothing if not done with legal clauses.

So what next?

Remainers would prefer no Brexit. (Against the democratic result of the referendum)

Failing that the softest of soft Brexits. (Hog tie us and stopping our ability to be competitive and get trade deals of our own without representation. Taxation without representation)

Leavers would on the hole, I think, prefer no deal and just leave. (Carrying out the democratic result of the referendum)

MPs won’t countenance no deal so we are left with delay or suspend A50 indefinitely, go against the democratic vote to rescind A50 or another referendum.

By the time the government decides what to do will there be time to do anything else other than leave?

I hope they procrastinate and twiddle their thumbs long enough to run out of time. However I think there are enough people that don’t believe in the ability of the UK that they will get all the paperwork done so that it (whichever democracy crushing route they take) it can be rushed through last second.

[emmie]

TTT does seem strange that doesn't it.

[youngmafbog]

If I am honest the EU ar doing what I would like to see Treson doing. Problem is she is a remainer and has no wish to see a good Brexit, no doubt pushed on by her Globalist husband.

I doubt very much there will be an election I am not convinced COB could get enough support for it. All Tories, and the DUP, would stick together to keep a majority as it is in their interest to do so. It is an entirely different kettle of fish to a PArties no confidence in it's leader. COB knows this and that is why he has not been stupid enough to try it.

[ToraToraTora]

bang on YMB, no deal is looking ever more likely.

[Kromovaracun]

3T:

There are serious limits to how far we can actually prepare for no-deal. There are only so many temperature controlled warehouses, for example, so it is only possible to stockpile a very short run of chilled medicines. The government can't magically subsidise the vast swathes of our economy that will be hit by more expensive trade if the UK reverts suddenly to being a third country. Even the ferry-rationing and diversion that is currently planned could only mitigate the problems at Dover, not solve them (govt currently expects Dover port to be at 25% - at most - of its current capacity in a no-deal scenario). Port authorities say that the diversion plans rely on a fleet of ferries that don't exist.

No-deal would be an economic disaster for this country.

[Kromovaracun]

//Play hardball with our own parliament.//

What does that even mean, cassa?

Because if it means 'give them a stern talking to', May has tried that until she is blue in the face.

[cassa333]

Tjsys bwcaise she is tslking sternly about a crsp deal that is in the uks worst intetests. Get someone willing to get us out and tell them to suck it up and make it work because it will be thier jobd tbst will be lost when the nrxt election comes along.

Any change is biund to be frightening but our government shpuld have been planning for no deal from day one

[Kromovaracun]

I see.

[mushroom25]

blimey cassa that took some reading - are you peter pedant in your spare time?

[Kromovaracun]

//Get someone willing to get us out and tell them to suck it up and make it work//

I mean, they did try phase one of that plan and it failed.

[emmie]

i think your typing, or predictive text needs some work....

[ichkeria]

It looks very likely that the Conservative party is going to split over this: Cameron thought he could appease the right wingers with his referendum: what he was proved is that there no appeasing the likes of Rees-Mogg, Bridgen, Baker et al. And now they appear, with their ERG, as the spawn of UKIP itself within the very fabric of the Tories. Several have said - reportedly - that they would vote against the government in a confidence motion, and there is talk of a "strike" in which they would refuse to support the govenment on selected legislation.

There is a very interesting article by Philip Collins in today's Times outlining a possible strategy the PM could adopt: try to force Labour's hand on this by appealing to many of its MPs to support her in a call for a referendum, with her deal and remain as the options. This would have the happy outcome of splitting Labour and would ultimately thwart the ERG &co. If she lost that vote in parliament she might yet spook enough of the decent Labour MPs - who don't like the idea of a Corbyn government any more than many outside their ranks - to back her in a vote on her deal.
It would be bloody, but the other options are no less ...

[ichkeria]

"All Tories, and the DUP, would stick together to keep a majority as it is in their interest to do so. It is an entirely different kettle of fish to a PArties no confidence in it's leader. COB knows this and that is why he has not been stupid enough to try it. "

See what I wrote above ... (!)

[youngmafbog]

//No-deal would be an economic disaster for this country.//

Thats a load of tosh Mr Carney.

[Kromovaracun]

I think gambling on the outcome of a referendum is precisely the strategy that got us into this mess, ich. Referenda simply don't sit well in the way the UK is governed.

[ichkeria]

They don’t. But a referendum got us into this mess and it may need one to get us out.

[mushroom25]

//appealing to many of its MPs to support her in a call for a referendum //

that still requires acquiescence of all 27 EU members, for such a referendum WILL need A50 to be deferred. what are the chances?

[ichkeria]

And this time it would not be a gamble: there would be proper options: status quo or an actual exit deal. As it should have been in the first place

[Ellipsis]

> support her in a call for a referendum

What could a referendum actually deliver though? Think about the three things it might possibly deliver, somehow:

1) Remain
2) The deal on the table
3) No deal Brexit

They're all bad, some worse than others according to your taste, and each (probably) has only minority support. None of them would heal the rift.

So many mistakes have been made to get us to where we are now. I can't imagine getting out of it without a really messy interlude.

[ichkeria]

True mushroom but I think those circumstances would make their agreement more likely. What they are unlikely to do is just extend it while we footle about. This would at least be a course of action

[Old_Geezer]

It's a farce. Just get the heck out then sort out the relationship when those either side of the negotiation table realises they've run out of time messing about and demanding "what's wanted ?" again whilst refusing to shift position.