Not Long For Clegg Now.

[TWR]

It this person's time coming to an end? Miliband said they will not have the LIB /DEM joining them, what's your views?

[jno]

didn't Labour say the same before the last election? Pretty sure they did hold talks about it, though.

[Hopkirk]

Clegg is unlikely to hold his own seat at the next election.

[askyourgran]

He hasn't proved to be loyal or contributed much to the coalition, nor has Vince Cable, blocking several moves Cameron wanted to make. I think he's wet the LibDems as a whole have not proved themselves. For all his faults Miliband could be right.

[LazyGun]

That is not quite what has been said, if you read beyond the headlines. Miliband has said he does not wish to talk about a coalition, preferring to focus on an outright labour majority. Some "sources" have claimed Labour are uninterested in forming a coalition with the Lib Dems as they are "Tory enablers", but thats just political rhetoric.

The reality is that they will negotiate pragmatically, depending on the results of the election. If Labour were to fall short of an outright majority and a coalition with whatever Lib Dems were elected gave them a majority then they would negotiate, rather than attempt to run as a minority government.

[emmie]

its still early, and that you don't know what kind of alliance the Labour bods will make, nor the Tories come to think of it.

[askyourgran]

TBH I think Labour would recruit anyone as long as they could be elected again.

[razza]

A pact with Lib Dems and Monster Raving Loony party,that would suit lib dems

[mikey4444]

The difficulty with any party wanting to form a coalition with the Lib Dems is........... will there be enough of them the day after the 2015 Election ?

They are reliably forecast to lose over half their few seats, ending up with as little as 24. Clegg himself is unlikely to survive very long after the Election either. This coalition has been fraying at the edges for months now, and its getting worse, so its very difficult to see how they could form another pact with the Tories.

As some kind of coalition is the only way that the Lib Dems can ever hope to be in power, they will seek anybody that will have them. Otherwise its back to the 60's, 70's and 80's when they had single digit seats in Parliament, and were a complete political nonentity.

[Gromit]

It is clear that talks about a coalition are a waste of time. If in the unlikely event that the LibDems do hold enough seats to give Labour or the Conservatives a working majority, they will just go with the party with the most votes regardless of who they are.

But Miliband will form a coalition if they are in the same pisition as Cameron was, no doubt about that.

The LibDem vote has collapse since being on Government. They have lost their deposit in 8 bye elections this parliament. At Wythenshawe the share of the vote dropped from a respectable 22% in 2010 to just 5%. after the election, the number of LibDem MPs will be muched reduced, it could be half their present number.

There will not be much of a Party to lead. Clegg will quickly take an EU job. Cable is too old to succeed him. The LibDems will take 20 years to recover, if they are not mortally wounded next year.

[Gromit]

// Otherwise its back to the 70's... ...and were a complete political nonentity. //

Are you forgetting the Lib Lab Pact in 1977? Not too dissimilar to their role now, propping up a weak government who don't have a majority of their own.

// An agreement was negotiated, under the terms of which the Labour Party accepted a limited number of Liberal Party policy proposals and in exchange, the Liberal Party agreed to vote with the government in any subsequent motion of no confidence. While this 'pact' was the only official bi-party agreement since the Second World War (until the Conservative–Lib Dem coalition following the 2010 election), it fell far short of a coalition. The Lib–Lab Pact's end was confirmed on 7 September 1978, by which time Callaghan was expected to call a general election, but instead he decided to continue as leader of a minority government until May 1979. //

[mikey4444]

How could one forget 1977 gromit ? As I remember, the Libs had 13/14 seats and propped up the Labour Government of the time. According to Wiki, the Libs have been in coalition with Labour 4 times, the last being in 1977.

But that was the Liberal Party, not the Lib Dems that we have now. Sometimes we forget that the modern Lib Dems are formed by a coming together of the Liberal Party and the SDP, who were nearly all disaffected members of the Labour Party. So, we are not really comparing like with like.

The Lib Dems will, as you say, get into bed with the Party with the most votes, if that party doesn't win outright in May 2015. But it is looking increasingly that Labour will be able to form a majority Government next year. There is still some doubt but I personally think that it will happen.

The Lib Dems will then find themselves in the political wilderness again, where they have been since the 1920's. Pity, as they have some good people, like the present Business Secretary, but in the end its always a straight fight between the Tories and Labour...no other party really matters very much.

[barney15c]

What 'would' be interesting is if UKIP (yes I know its highly unlikely) was to take seats, would the 2 major parties would align with them, if it meant a majority government. ;)

[grumpy01]

Think your pretty much spot on there Mikey but couldn't agree with you on Vince cable though he seems to wear the right hat for any given situation.

[Gromit]

The SDP were disaffected with the Labour Party in the 1980s which they believed had swung leftwards. The Labour Party of Blair took the Party back to the middle ground and was much more what the SDP wanted.

Apparently there were plans for a Lab Lab coalition going into the 1997 general election until the scale of Labour's landslide was known. Blair still wanted to give the Liberals cabinet seats in his first Government but Prescott threated to resign if he did so it never happened.

[Gromit]

That should of course be...

Apparently there were plans for a Lab Lib coalition

[DTCwordfan]

I agree with Steve - the one difference being that Ed the Millipede wouldn't tolerate Cable as long as DC has.

[mikey4444]

Barney...your question is kind-of academic, as UKIP is unlikely to win many seats, if any. Who would form a coalition with a party that own, shall we say, 3 seats ? What would be the point ?

Something that is more likely is that "secret" pacts may form in a few constituencies, between UKIP and the Tories. There appears to be a certain sympathy between UKIP and the more barmy of Tory MPs. As it is obvious that UKIP is going to take votes away from the Tories, rather than Labour, perhaps UKIP will realise that to achieve their only aim in life, to get Britain out of the EEC, is more likely to happen under a Tory Government, than a Labour one.

[barney15c]

mikey, it will be interesting if the conservative vote will be affected by their handling of the floods crises in those affected constituencies (depending of course, contituents having long memorys come election time) . UKIP could indeed play a part in secret pacts with the tories.

[mikey4444]

The floods haven't been Camerons fault, much as it would pleased me to say it although they didn't act with as much alacrity as I would have liked, especially in the early days. Its how they respond in the immediate future as regards cuts to the EA budget that will tell. The plans for 550 EA redundancies seems to have been quietly dropped, which I predicted a few days ago here on AB. What a pity dave didn't answer Eds question properly in PMQ's !

But it is true that an awful lot of Tory seats are affected in the Thames Valley...perhaps this will come back to haunt dave next May ?