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Syria / Turkey conflict.

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Hopkirk | 09:01 Thu 11th Oct 2012 | News
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Why has Syria being lobbing bombs at Turkey recently?

Haven't they got enough problems inside their own borders?
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"the Syrians are trying to suppress information coming out"

You've only got to look at the SANA website to see that! The regime/government has ploughed on with indiscriminate killing of ciivilians as well as "armed terrorists" as it calls the rebels - regardless of international opinion. What started out as protests against it into a full-scale civil war involving not only the Free Syrian Army but now also extremist jihadist groups (although these seem very ill-organised).
The people who are really suffering are the ordinary civilians caught in the crossfire, particularly in Aleppo but all over the country.
As for bringing Russia into it, Russia is already in it. They've been supplying - and continue to supply illegally - weapons and other equipment to the Syrian government war machine and Turkey seems determined to stop them.
Actually the Russian government's public pronouncements about Assad have grown decidedly cool in recent weeks - presumably he's slowly gone beyond the pale even for them and they must know that a deterioration of the conflict and consequent destabilisation of the region threatens them as much as anyone.
There is actually some "on the ground" reporting.
There's a Times reporter in Aleppo for example, who did an alarming piece describing exactly the conditions on the ground there. Of course he was with the rebels as the government would turf him out/kill him if they knew he was there.
There are Russian journalists in Damascus too of course, but then if one wants to avoid the spin ... :-)
Lazygun may well be right about Damscus's intentions as to Turkey - historically never the most placid of people, those Turks......
Syria shelling Turkey's villages makes no sense by any reckoning - I'd be inclined to think that it was done in error, although who knows. This is a country which is imploding. As Hopkirk says, the last thing they need, actually, is to draw other countries into the conflict. When we talk about "they" of course, we actually mean the government, which plainly does not represent the Syrian people. Turkey is trying to manage an unruly neighbour, hence the tension with Russia.
other countries are being drawn in though, Turkey will not stand idly by and let Syrian forces bomb their borders, and that in turn will bring any number of supporters of Syria out of the woodwork. I have been following the news on this for a while, it is as already said, quite a scary scenario.
Assad (as opposed to Syria) doesn't have many friends and the ones he does have (Russia and Iran) certainly won't help beyond sending weapons. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also it would seem arming his enemies. It's Assad's aim to cling to power - nothing more, nothing less. His only hope of that was that, with the help mainly of Russia, he could stave off intervention of some sort by the international community and defeat the uprising by brute force. Unfortunately for all concerned, all that succeeded in doing was intensifying the conflict.
As I said before it's not clear that the Syrians ARE shelling Turkey intentionally.
On the surface I agree Ichkeria - There seems little to be gained from the Syrian administration forces shelling villages in Turkey. One incident could be a stray round, an accident ,but more looks deliberate.

I have read that some commentators think that Syria might be trying to "Internationalise" the internal conflict, to gain more concrete support and aid from Russia, Iran, maybe China - and perhaps gain some aid from other middle east countries if they can portray this conflict as state-sponsored terrorism, sponsored and supported by the West.

Other commentators have suggested it might be the rebel faction, attempting to drag Turkey and NATO into the conflict.

Either way, such escalation presents lots of potential for catastrophic escalation......
According to any number of sources there has been more than one incident of bombing Turkish borders, so it wouldn't be a mistake, though one wonders what would be gained by Syria. Perhaps they are trying to get their major supporter Russia involved. If that happens then we are facing a very serious situation.
Russia, already involved an an ally and chief supplier if weaponry and other support, will never become more involved than it already is. That would mean sending combat troops and that simply won't happen.
I think the biggest danger is general destabilisation of the region due to movements of refugees and spreading of tribal and sectarian conflict.
This is an interview given by Mother Agnes Mariam to Irish TV . It dates from August . If you have a spare 10min you might want to watch it (and also read some of the comments ) .
P.S. - for the comments you'll have to click on the title and go to the actual youtube page .
Mother Mariam has no doubt witnessed atrocities in her position. She has gone on record though as saying that the uprising is simply the work of foreign "mercenaries" which I'm afraid, good woman tho she is I am sure, merely marks her out as biasied in favour of the regime - ironically though getting coverage in the "western" press.
As for the youtube comments, I barely got beyond the first word of the first comment before being bombarded by foul-mouthed obscenity. Reading the unmoderated trash that accompanies 90% of these videos is an interesting reflection on the mentality of a lot of people, but other then that about as enlightening as a manure-covered blanket I'm afraid.
Did you actually read something on SANA about the shelling by the way? I couldn't find anything. It seems likely to have been caused by stray shells, which seems perfectly possible.
I pray for peace.
The comments on SANA about the original shelling last week was an issuing of a statement expressing condolences for the deaths and that they would look into the firing.They never actually took responsibility or confirmed that it was them who fired the shell .
I'd believe Agnes Mariam over any journalist or politician . As far as the youtube comments , they're unmoderated and you get some morons on there - that's the nature of the internet - but it's interesting to look at the serious comments to see what people are thinking .
Lots of people think lots of things. The Internet is full of it. The difficulty is separating the wheat from the chaff.
As for journalists and politicians I try also to adopt the same approach. Mother Mariam though is giving eye witness accounts of atrocities which I'm sure are honest as do many people. But she does have a political agenda also I'm afraid which may or may not influence what she says. Or perhaps she's just a good and simple woman who believes what evil people tell her.
Lots of info on SANA tonight .
Here are some specific articles from the SANA website from over the last couple of days . This one is about the aeroplane and at the end Syria challenges Turkey to put the seized cargo on show ( something which they haven't done )
http://sana.sy/eng/21/2012/10/12/446521.htm
This one gives details of recent fighting and what the terrorists have been getting up to
http://sana.sy/eng/337/2012/10/14/446772.htm
This one is about the Syrian government's reconciliation efforts in Homs
http://sana.sy/eng/21/2012/10/13/446906.htm
This one is about the Syrian Governments effort to rehouse displaced people in Tartous
http://sana.sy/eng/21/2012/10/13/446895.htm

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