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Aintree Festival 2021
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Spent a couple of hours last night, running the rule over the strongest stats for each race. These are some of those stats and my provisional selections (non-runners willing, etc);
1.45; All 11 past winners in first 3 in market. 10/11 beaten at Cheltenham, particularly Marsh Novices. Nicky Henderson has trained 2 of the 11 winners.
Selection; Fusil Raffles currently 11/4
2.20; 22/25 winners either won or placed in graded races earlier in season. 14 of the last 15 winners were placed lto. French bred account for 11/21 winners. 8/15 favs obliged.
Selection; Adagio currently 6/4
2.50; 25/36 winners ran in that seasons Gold Cup but just 2 of 14 placed at the Festival won this race. Better to look at those who were outside the first 3 in the GC. 12 of last 23 winners had placed in first 4 in King George same season and 2nd/3rd favs have accounted for 12 of the last 27 winners.
Selection; Native River* currently 5/1
3.25; 9 of last 23 winners ran in last years race, 7 placing. 21/43 winners were trained in Ireland and most had bypassed Cheltenham in total contrast to the 24 British trained winners which all ran at Cheltenham. All winners since 2008 ran within 49 days of this race. Nicky Henderson trained the winner in 2011, '12, '17 & '18.
Selection; Jason The Militant* currently 3/1
4.05; 18/20 winners came from first 5 in betting, 34/36 winners were aged at least 9 years old and 23/28 were placed lto. 13/18 did not begin in PTP.
Selection; Sametegal* currently 13/2
4.40; Just 1 of 11 winners carried more than 11-2 to victory. 10/18 were novices.
Selection; Dostal Phil* currently 14/1
5.15; No real strong stats.
Selection; Elle Est Belle currently 3/1
* Denotes probable Lucky 15 bet. Others will go in a Trixie/Treble.
Back when my decision has been made. Best of luck, all.
1.45; All 11 past winners in first 3 in market. 10/11 beaten at Cheltenham, particularly Marsh Novices. Nicky Henderson has trained 2 of the 11 winners.
Selection; Fusil Raffles currently 11/4
2.20; 22/25 winners either won or placed in graded races earlier in season. 14 of the last 15 winners were placed lto. French bred account for 11/21 winners. 8/15 favs obliged.
Selection; Adagio currently 6/4
2.50; 25/36 winners ran in that seasons Gold Cup but just 2 of 14 placed at the Festival won this race. Better to look at those who were outside the first 3 in the GC. 12 of last 23 winners had placed in first 4 in King George same season and 2nd/3rd favs have accounted for 12 of the last 27 winners.
Selection; Native River* currently 5/1
3.25; 9 of last 23 winners ran in last years race, 7 placing. 21/43 winners were trained in Ireland and most had bypassed Cheltenham in total contrast to the 24 British trained winners which all ran at Cheltenham. All winners since 2008 ran within 49 days of this race. Nicky Henderson trained the winner in 2011, '12, '17 & '18.
Selection; Jason The Militant* currently 3/1
4.05; 18/20 winners came from first 5 in betting, 34/36 winners were aged at least 9 years old and 23/28 were placed lto. 13/18 did not begin in PTP.
Selection; Sametegal* currently 13/2
4.40; Just 1 of 11 winners carried more than 11-2 to victory. 10/18 were novices.
Selection; Dostal Phil* currently 14/1
5.15; No real strong stats.
Selection; Elle Est Belle currently 3/1
* Denotes probable Lucky 15 bet. Others will go in a Trixie/Treble.
Back when my decision has been made. Best of luck, all.
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Day Two; No selections as yet.
1.45; Since it was first run in 1989, just 7 winners have not visited the winners enclosure earlier in the same season. Only 2 favs have won in 31 years and 14 of the last 17 winners were double digit SPs - 8 of which fell between 10s and 16s. Nicky Henderson won this in '13, '15 & '17.
2.20; 22/29 winners were to be found in first 4 in market. Nicky Henderson won this in '10, '12, '13, '14 & '16. Last 12 winners had all had at least 3 runs prior to Aintree, 9 of those having run within 24 days.
2.50; Just one of the last 31 winners started higher than 10/1. 15/18 winners took part at Cheltenham and the last 21 winners had run in a Grade 1 earlier in their career. 32/37 winners had 2 chase victories to their name. Nicky Henderson won this in '03, '10, '17 & '18.
3.25; 13 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 race earlier in the season. 16 of the last 25 running s have gone to either the fav or 2nd fav and the last 21 winners ran at Cheltenham. 20 of the 29 winners of this race had either won or placed at Aintree's 3 day festival in the past.
4.05; Since 2000, only 5 have carried over 11st to victory, with 10 of the last 17 carrying no more than 10-7. Aintree experience is hugely significant as 10/16 Topham winners already had experience of the National fences. In the last 26 runnings, 118 horses aged 11 or older have taken part with just the one winner. Henderson won this in '06, '13, '14 & '15, while Peter Bowen trained Always Waining to win this race in '10, '11 & '12, and Colin Tizzard trained Ultragold to win in '17 & '18.
4.40; 22 of the last 25 winners had won at least twice over hurdles and only 5 of the last 27 winners had not run at least 4 times over timber. Henderson won this in '14, '18 & '19, while Nigel Twiston-Davies has saddled 3 winners and 2 placed runners.
5.15; This race has seen it's trends change since becoming restricted to just amateurs and conditionals. One stat that does stand out, however, is that the Irish trainers have had a good time in this race recently. Between 200 and 2007, they saddled 4 winners, in 2011 they had the 1st and 2nd, in 2015, 2nd, 3rd & 4th, then the winners in '16, '17 & '19. A couple of negatives; favourites do not win this race and since 1998 (a 5-horse race), no front runner has won.
1.45; Since it was first run in 1989, just 7 winners have not visited the winners enclosure earlier in the same season. Only 2 favs have won in 31 years and 14 of the last 17 winners were double digit SPs - 8 of which fell between 10s and 16s. Nicky Henderson won this in '13, '15 & '17.
2.20; 22/29 winners were to be found in first 4 in market. Nicky Henderson won this in '10, '12, '13, '14 & '16. Last 12 winners had all had at least 3 runs prior to Aintree, 9 of those having run within 24 days.
2.50; Just one of the last 31 winners started higher than 10/1. 15/18 winners took part at Cheltenham and the last 21 winners had run in a Grade 1 earlier in their career. 32/37 winners had 2 chase victories to their name. Nicky Henderson won this in '03, '10, '17 & '18.
3.25; 13 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 race earlier in the season. 16 of the last 25 running s have gone to either the fav or 2nd fav and the last 21 winners ran at Cheltenham. 20 of the 29 winners of this race had either won or placed at Aintree's 3 day festival in the past.
4.05; Since 2000, only 5 have carried over 11st to victory, with 10 of the last 17 carrying no more than 10-7. Aintree experience is hugely significant as 10/16 Topham winners already had experience of the National fences. In the last 26 runnings, 118 horses aged 11 or older have taken part with just the one winner. Henderson won this in '06, '13, '14 & '15, while Peter Bowen trained Always Waining to win this race in '10, '11 & '12, and Colin Tizzard trained Ultragold to win in '17 & '18.
4.40; 22 of the last 25 winners had won at least twice over hurdles and only 5 of the last 27 winners had not run at least 4 times over timber. Henderson won this in '14, '18 & '19, while Nigel Twiston-Davies has saddled 3 winners and 2 placed runners.
5.15; This race has seen it's trends change since becoming restricted to just amateurs and conditionals. One stat that does stand out, however, is that the Irish trainers have had a good time in this race recently. Between 200 and 2007, they saddled 4 winners, in 2011 they had the 1st and 2nd, in 2015, 2nd, 3rd & 4th, then the winners in '16, '17 & '19. A couple of negatives; favourites do not win this race and since 1998 (a 5-horse race), no front runner has won.
Good post last nigh Ken, I missed it last night. Didn't see it until I had had a look this morning ... it could have saved me half an hour or so of ponderings. Early start as I have to be out this morning and this afternoon I am cleaning and tidying the desktop up including fitting it up with the latest wifi/bluetooth card, so may be offline for a little while. Shame about the withdrawn horse in the 2.50. The first race is missed out of the ITV7 but races at other venues put in. Can never work that out. The 4.05 is another conundrum and I have put Modus in my punts but will be having a little e/w on Morning Vicar as well. Done an e/w acca on these 4 with e/w doubles and trebles. Extra place taken where offered.
Edwardstone @13/2 1.45A
The Big Breakaway* @6/1 2.50A
Modus @12/1 3.05A
Streets of Doyen @9/1A
The bottom 3 of those with Dusart*, Silken Moonlight, Soaring Star, & Politologue* for the ITV7 May yet do a little trixie on those***
Edwardstone @13/2 1.45A
The Big Breakaway* @6/1 2.50A
Modus @12/1 3.05A
Streets of Doyen @9/1A
The bottom 3 of those with Dusart*, Silken Moonlight, Soaring Star, & Politologue* for the ITV7 May yet do a little trixie on those***
Taken me quite some time to sort my selections out using my stats as a primary guide. Means that some i may otherwise have fancied, have had the old black line crossed through them - 2 strikes and yer out, doncha know. Time will tell if i have been rather too draconian with the black ink......................
2.20 Ain; Ajero @ 8/1
4.05 Ain; Senior Citizen @ 12/1 (7 places)
4.40 Ain; Oscar Elite @ 17/2 (4 places)
5.15 Ain; Leoncavallo @ 7/1 (6 places)
Win singles, 20p Lucky 15, £1 e.w. acca. 4 placed = poss £44, 4 winners = poss £8,810.
£1 e.w. single - Press Your Luck @ 18/1 (7 places) - 1.45 Ain
£1 e.w. single - Al Suile Eile @ 28/1 - 2.40 Lei
£1 e.w. single - Sir Jack Yeats @ 28/1 (7 places) - 4.05 Ain
£1 e.w. single - Topofthecotswolds @ 28/1 (4 places) - 4.40 Ain
Aintree placepot; 18-1-1-8-17-10
ITV 7; The above qualifiers plus; Chantry House, Court Jurado & Dirty Rascal.
Best of luck to all.
2.20 Ain; Ajero @ 8/1
4.05 Ain; Senior Citizen @ 12/1 (7 places)
4.40 Ain; Oscar Elite @ 17/2 (4 places)
5.15 Ain; Leoncavallo @ 7/1 (6 places)
Win singles, 20p Lucky 15, £1 e.w. acca. 4 placed = poss £44, 4 winners = poss £8,810.
£1 e.w. single - Press Your Luck @ 18/1 (7 places) - 1.45 Ain
£1 e.w. single - Al Suile Eile @ 28/1 - 2.40 Lei
£1 e.w. single - Sir Jack Yeats @ 28/1 (7 places) - 4.05 Ain
£1 e.w. single - Topofthecotswolds @ 28/1 (4 places) - 4.40 Ain
Aintree placepot; 18-1-1-8-17-10
ITV 7; The above qualifiers plus; Chantry House, Court Jurado & Dirty Rascal.
Best of luck to all.
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