Us Election

[Spicerack]

If anyone wants to talk about it, I'm planning on being here all night..
I might go and hide if Biden starts winning. (Doubt it, though)

[Jackdaw33]

I'm not watching it but following the live feed on the BBC. So far it's Biden 44, Trump 37. These are predictions on votes counted so it's very early days yet.

[jim360]

Trump and Biden could more or less pen in 150 electoral votes each before the election started, the way so many states are predictable. Later, Biden will win (big) in California and New York, for example.

Right now, though, it's looking... mixed. Trump probably going to hold Florida; Georgia, Texas, and Ohio looking competitive; no idea what's going down in Pennsylvania yet.

[Spicerack]

I wouldn't put much faith in any 'predictions' from the aBBC, but I guess you know that. Are they still saying Biden's the favourite in Florida? Lol.


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[Jackdaw33]

Now Biden 44, Trump 42.

[jim360]

I think BBC is saying it's "too close to call", which is probably just hedging. As far as I can see, Trump's won that state, but there are plenty of other states that Biden can win on his way to 270.

[Jackdaw33]

Biden is almost certain to win California which has a whopping 55 votes.

[Spicerack]

What/which web site are you watching/listening on, Jim?
I'm watching Sargon. The Trump supporters sound very upbeat on there.

[jim360]

I've got two open at the moment. But since mostly I'm just interested in the actual data, mainly I care about the way it's presented. I'm enjoying the Guardian's visualisation at least. Pretty colours :)

[Spicerack]

These Trumpers are worried about Texas.
How could they vote for someone who wants to ban oil & guns?

[jim360]

I vividly remember the 2016 election, which was not so much a shock to me but certainly a slow burn of pain :P I've been dreading something similar tonight, perhaps partly because I feel that Trump's great at turning 10% chances into a certain win!

But we'll see. The sense I'm getting based on FiveThirtyEight analysis is that Florida may be a bit of an outlier, but on the other hand I'm bored of seeing people explain how narrow the path is that Trump seems to walk anyway...

[Jackdaw33]

I'm surprised at Texas. I thought Trump would have had that in the bag.

[jim360]

I've known that Texas was competitive for a while, but I still would be surprised if it went to Biden. I thought he'd probably come up short and just tease us.

[Spicerack]

I'm really, really looking forward to your defence of the polls, Jim.
Don't you let me down now. ;-)

[jim360]

As I explain in this 4,000 word essay... :P

[Spicerack]

If it starts looking like a Trump win later on, I'm switching to The Young Turks to watch Cenk breaking down.

[jim360]

I should also have included North Carolina in the watch-list above. It's looking, I think, fairly promising for Biden.

I went into this election assuming that Biden would, at a minimum, improve on Clinton's performance -- and since 2016 was actually seriously close, I thought (or hoped?) this would be enough for Biden to win.

I'm writing this now not because I'm calling the election already, but because you can throw this back in my face if Trump does win after all :P But right now I'm feeling like the night is playing out to more or less my expectations. I don't want to credit myself with the wisdom of Solomon, but I would have been surprised if Biden won everything he was expected to (eg Florida and Georgia, which seem to be heading to Trump).

[emmie]

seems appropriate

[jim360]

Not that promising here also includes the "close but just losing" -- if Biden's pulling close to Trump in most places across the country, then he can expect to win the states he needs to. But I'd like to see him do more than scrape across the finish line.

[venator]

Can we have the Swingometer plase?

[emmie]

I would be surprised if Trump loses, but hey, nothing is impossible in the world of American politics.