Not Sure Tiers And Lockdowns Are Working.

[Sunk]

Where I live we have been in tier 3 for 8 weeks including a month long lockdown.

But new cases are rising alarmingly, up 100 on the previous week.

Soon everyone will be in tier 4. But it just isn’t working.

[pixie374]

No worries eve and emmie, it was just a straight question x

[gness]

Agreed, Dave. If the schools and all places of education had done the right thing and stayed closed we'd all have had Christmas with our families. Well except for my sister. We'd not have invited her... :-)

[nailit]

Can anyone tell me how hiding away under the stairs will stem the spread of an air born virus?
I just dont get it?

Like many others, Ive worked through the whole of the pandemic. Ive shopped, caught the bus everyday, gone to work (in a van, with a drivers mate), worked in a warehouse, Ive had council workers out to my property, been to hospital, caught taxi's, mingled with other commuters and shoppers etc.
All the time following the 'guidelines'.
But we still have covid.
Tier this and tier that, lockdown here and lockdown there.

FGS you cant get rid of an air born virus by hiding in the basement.
(or, IMO, by wearing an unhygenic mask or/and ignoring elderly and sick relatives)

[emmie]

no nailit you cant and some might say we will have to live with it, whatever that means.

[bobbinwales]

No nailit no one is saying hide under the stairs but you can take sensible measures to reduce the risk significantly- you can still go to work if you have to (ie cant work from home and obviously you can't in your job), dont get close to people you dont know or have no idea where they've been keep 2m, wash your hands regular, regularly sanitise your hands in shops, supermarkets and at work, avoid crowded places like tube trains, busses and pubs where you can, wera clean face covering when sharing a car/confined place and ask others to do the same, and avoid places where noone bothers with masks and distancing like parties. Common sense really

[woofgang]

pixie, you are asking the impossible. "No one is ever told what would have happened" CS Lewis

[pixie374]

Quite possibly woof! I just thought we might know how many people die per week anyway. And even double it, to be fair.

[Deskdiary]

I started to read this thread, but only got to the third post and decided to stop when I read this;

"Yes a survey showed a majority now want a full lockdown. For me close schools as part of that , certainly secondaries."

We absolutely must NOT dick about with the education of children.

[New Judge]

//The spring lockdown was very effective and deaths fell from a peak of over 1000 a day to 10-20 a day,…//

//As bobbi says the spring lockdown actually was quite effective but we gave up on it.//

Did we? Well it lasted 17 weeks. The peak of daily deaths (7-Day average) during “Lockdown 1” was 942 on 14th April. When LD1 was lifted on 4th July that figure stood at 46. So, by that measure it was certainly a success. Did we give up on it too early? Let’s have a look. There was no enduring increase (of more than 1 or 2) in daily deaths from 4th July until almost the end of September. In the first week of September daily deaths stood in single figures. On 9th September they stood at just 9. The following day there was an increase of 18 and they increased steadily during the second half of September. On October 1st the seven day average was 43. So if we gave up too early, the question that needs to be asked is why did deaths not increase significantly for the best part of three months when the country was under the slackest restrictions it has been since March? Whatever was keeping infections and deaths down during that period, it wasn’t a lockdown.

There seems to be no absolute correlation between lockdown and deaths/infections. The county of Kent has been under either Tier 3 or Tier 4 restrictions since November 5th. When that began infections there were not particularly low, but nowhere near the top of the league. Since November Kent has acquired the dubious privilege of three of its areas (Swale, Medway and Thanet) becoming the three areas in England with the highest 7-Day infection rate. Kent has six of its areas in the top ten of that league. So as much as relaxing lockdown measures in the whole of the UK in July did not lead to a sudden surge in deaths, imposing them in Kent in November did not see a reduction.

Of course pro-lockdown fans always bleat "Ah but we don't know how bad would have been without a lockdown." Very convenient. Except that we do - between July and September as I have explained..

[Togo]

//We absolutely must NOT dick about with the education of children.//

It is a bit late now for that sentiment. We have been doing just that for 40yrs now. At least with the schools nigh on closed closed for 12 months we may get a few adults who are not fully indoctrinated in the ways of the woke, "safe space" yearnings, know your rights but be blissfully unaware of your wrongs, attention seeking but emotionally crippled examples that we have been churning out with a sense of unfulfillable entitlement. At least at home they may get a chance to learn how to think for themselves now and again. Maybe even learn how to hold themselves to account instead of anyone unfortunate enough to be in the marxist crosshairs. Ohh by the way I think that the kids are alright, just betrayed by people who should be educating not indoctrinating them.

[nailit]

You cannot defeat an air born virus by hiding under the stairs...
I know a few people who are so terrified that they wont leave the house...still there 9 months later, basically under self imposed house arrest...ive just got on with my life, no ill effects so far.
Spent Xmas day with my mum without any busy-body's reporting us.
And *** you if you did, sad cases!
Hide away if you must.
Dont expect me to do the same.
If i die of covid, fare enough.
Not going to stop living or loving.

[gness]

Then you have absolutely no idea of what the "education" of young people has been like this year, Diddly.

[woofgang]

pixie374 "Quite possibly woof! I just thought we might know how many people die per week anyway. And even double it, to be fair."

Pixie that figure we do have, its called "excess deaths" It compares the number of deaths from all causes in any particular week pre covid to the number of deaths in a comparable week (same week number) from all causes during the pandemic.
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/press/press-releases/excess-deaths-ons-data-kings-fund-response
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending11december2020

[pixie374]

Thanks, woof... I've seen excess deaths too. I guess 3 weeks of that number would be the answer then.

[pixie374]

The trouble is, that includes covid deaths, at the beginning of December. We would want number of excess deaths for the first 3 weeks in March.
NJ? Anyone?

[10ClarionSt]

"It would work if people stuck to the rules?!!!!" How do you know Danny? Maybe the virus is more virulent now than it was in April, and tiers and lockdowns are a waste of time, as unk has said.

Hands, face, waste of space
I said hands, face waste of space.
Oops upside you head
I said oops upside your head.

[10ClarionSt]

Ooops ^^ Sorry, Sunk ^^ :o)

[New Judge]

There will always be "excess deaths". Probably five years out of every ten.

[pixie374]

Ok, excess deaths per week at the beginning of March was minus 300 (less than expected). So add on covid deaths for the first 3 weeks and those who would have died without treatment (like they still are). It's still hard to imagine it would have been over 70,000 people.

[pixie374]

Obviously, NJ.