Is The Cure Worse Than The Disease?

[ToraToraTora]

An interesting view from Peter Hitchens here. Has he got a point?

[Prudie]

Can I ask a question - just reading this with interest but have no knowledge whatsoever of the subject matter to contribute - however is Ellipsis saying that before Covid New York averaged 25 deaths a week? I find that unbelievably low.

[Zacs-Master]

‘ if nothing was done here, why didn’t they do so in Sweden, where relatively nothing was done? ’

Because their population density is about one fifth of ours.

From the reports I’ve read, many Swede’s have taken it upon themselves to stay at home a lot more and there was advice that it was best practise:
https://www.thelocal.se/20200311/coronavirus-who-should-self-isolate-in-sweden-and-how-do-you-do-it

However, this is a very interesting article which backs up your thoughts, NJ
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

[pixie374]

Yes, your point was clear, nj, anyway. Everyone is basically experimenting... so we will see.

[jim360]

It's not quite a like-for-like comparison, as you've admitted. Sweden is less densely populated than the UK, for example. In the last couple of days, too, it seems that they are having a pause in case/death reports, making it harder to compare. There is then the small matter that their case growth curve looks not that far off exponential to me, albeit perhaps at a slower growth rate. I haven't done the analysis so I'd have to check, at the moment it's just a "by eye" judgement, which isn't really that reliable, but still I'm seeing something not inconsistent with exponential growth through to before Easter.

And, in any case, the Sweden PM has recently admitted that not enough has been done there to mitigate the effects of Covid, so it's not exactly brilliant for your case in that regard either.

[pixie374]

Surely it goes without saying that the places that will be affected the most, will have the densest populations. Both practically and evolutionarily.

[Zacs-Master]

Not that simple, pixie. There are other factors such as percentage of people who live in cities (i.e. the amount of urban population vs rural). The amount of poverty. The percentage of elderly people. The amount of readily available public transportation.

[jim360]

Meanwhile, the Government has suggested that it's beginning to see the effects of the Lockdown. "Positive signs" that the UK is getting this under control, and "Numbers of new cases and patients in hospital are levelling off", even if this week is sadly going to see several thousand new deaths announced.

[Ellipsis]

> is Ellipsis saying that before Covid New York averaged 25 deaths a week

No, in the link I gave, about New York resorting to mass graves, it was talking about the number of burials at one site increasing from 25 a week to 24 a day. Here's the link again:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-new-york-victims-without-family-buried-in-mass-grave-on-hart-island-11971679

If the typical daily deaths in the UK in years gone by is 1600, the really interesting stat would be "What are the daily deaths now, under lockdown?" Giving we are mostly living safer lives, (working less, travelling less, etc.) you would expect it to go down a bit were it not for Covid-19. The amount it has gone up would be a better indication of the number of deaths caused "by" Covid-19, regardless of "of" or "with", under our lockdown conditions and allowing for lag etc.

New York is an example of how much deaths increase above the typical when Covid-19 is left unchecked for too long. Digging mass graves is definitely unusual.

[Ellipsis]

Jim has just posted the stat on a different thread:

jim360> Meanwhile. the ONS figures for provisional total deaths, week ending April 3rd, were released, and it doesn't make for pretty reading. Background deaths a shade over 10,000/week at this time of year. Actual deaths, 16,000.

So, deaths have gone up hugely over the norm. With or of, matters not - it's almost subjective - whereas the number of deaths is objective.

[jim360]

ONS figures are out, by the way. Daily deaths before Covid-19 at this time of year average 1500. Daily deaths for week ending April 3rd: average 2300. 800 increase.

[Ellipsis]

Yep, as I posted just above you Jim. :) Stealing your post from another thread.

[naomi24]

//New York resorting to mass graves//

New York is burying unclaimed bodies in mass graves... other victims are being buried normally. Not that that makes the idea of mass graves any less shocking. Just saying.

[NickorWan]

I believe they frequently use mass graves too, though they are using more at the moment.

[Zacs-Master]

Yes, we have to keep a perspective on how NY’s poor were buried pre-corona.

‘ And then, perhaps most eerily present, there is Hart Island, the small, barren plot of land viewable from City Island in the Bronx. Here, Riker’s Island inmates are paid 50 cents an hour to bury the city’s poor and unclaimed dead in trenches, not plots’
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/jul/12/the-gentrification-of-death-in-new-york-eternal-rest-will-soon-be-a-luxury

[Ellipsis]

OK, forget New York increasing burials from 25 a week to 24 a day at one site. We have a better set of numbers now, relevant to the UK - deaths increasing from 10,000 a week typically to 16,000 a week under Covid-19.

[Zacs-Master]

Yeah, I read that ellipsis. I also read Jim’s update on daily figures.

[pixie374]

Thanks for that, Jim x that's a big change from a couple of weeks ago. Are we getting to the peak yet?

[jim360]

I can't answer question about the peak, but I can say that next week's figures will be even grimmer reading.

[naomi24]

Mass graves are also being dug at a London cemetery for Muslim victims.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-mass-graves-dug-london-21861758

[jim360]

I'm still trying to make sense of the ONS data. As best I can figure out, there could be as many as 2,200 more deaths, half as many again, related to Covid-19 in the run-up to 3rd April than were registered in the current count. I'll need to wait to next week to see if there's a further revision, but the simple fact is that the death rate has exploded in the last couple of weeks, that a good deal of this is related to Covid-19, and the picture painted is clearly horrific.