Is Ukip Gaining More Support Than The Other Parties Want To Acknowledge?

[naomi24]

Just watching the news and wondering if UKIP’s success at yesterday’s by-election was, as some are claiming, the result of a protest vote – or is support for the party really growing faster than the other parties care to acknowledge? If it is, why do you think that is?

[emmie]

i do think they are doing somewhat better, perhaps it's the soundbites, the language used, playing to the crowd, if it is any of those things i reckon it's working, it doesn't really help that Cameron et al seem all at sea.

[emmie]

and that Clegg is a lame duck, i know the fact a Lib Dem won but honestly don't see how that man has survived this long.

[VHG]

The key indicator of success is when UKIP win a seat in the house.

Coming second and third is ok, but getting a seat is the most important thing.

Then the other parties may begin to take them seriously.

[Noth43]

It would be nice to think there was a viable alternative to the usual three suspects, you cant tell them apart these days, but a mid term by- election protest is more than likely all it is.
I really cant see Farage as prime minister, although we could do - and have done - worse.

[emmie]

I think there are a lot of disaffected voters for all the main parties, and they see UKIP as their voice, even if Farage has no chance of actually doing anything about it, at least at the moment...

[jake-the-peg]

No, protest parties are a safe by-election vote - always have been.

If UKIP can't win that seat in a by-election they won't take it in a general election.

A lot of disgruntled Tories realise that a vote for UKIP will be letting in the Liberals and Labour so UKIP's share of the vote will shrink back in a General election but probably not enough for the Tories to win.

After the next election the right wing voters will be most concerned with getting out the Labour party and will go back to voting Tory again, especially if someone from the Right takes over.

They'll probably end up winning 5 or 10 seats, make a lot of noise for a parliament but essentially they're not a serious proposition.

Their strategy is probably to try to bounce the Tories to the right after the next election.

Whether a right leaning Tory party can actually win enough marginals is another question

[modeller]

I don't think of it as a protest vote but rather UKIP is more in tune with what people want.

[ichkeria]

Earlier today I heard Nigel Farage in an interview claiming that voters were turning to UKIP because they were fed up with the modern Conservatives no longer talking about 'enterprise' and small businesses but instead 'gay marriage' and 'climate change'.
That doesn't sound like a politician with his finger on the pulse of Britain or the leader of a party that is anything other than a repository for the votes of frustrated right-wingers. They will do better in by-elections in certain seats as voters are more inclined to waste their vote on a protest, particularly as we currently have 2 parties of goverment instead of the usual one.
They could do very well in the Euro elections but are likely to make asses of themselves in 2015 when they have to find 650 sensible candidates...
They claim to represent a "new politics" - but who was their representative on Question Time last night? Neil Hamilton (!)

[starone]

Until voting is made compulsory the same old thing will happen every time. Limping between parties and patching things up somehow or other. Muddling through as usual

[flump1]

Agree with Star about voters here , the turnout was a pathetic 50 % considering what campaigning had been done. I think it is a protest vote.

[ludwig]

I'd have to agree with jtp's summary. It's the obvious protest vote. When the libs and tories are both in power it's pretty much the only option to register your disappointment with the government, which is what by-election voters always do, whoever's in power.

Also, since the financial crises, particularly with the Euro, I think there is a genuine and growing disillusionment with the EU. There's a possibility we may be witnessing in the UK something like the growth of the SNP in Scotland.

It probably won't be enough to get us out of Europe, just like the SNP haven't got enough support to get them out of the UK, but it's becoming more significant.

[penelope2]

I don't think it's a protest vote at all. People are realising that the Labour Party got us into this mess, the Coallition don't appear able to get us out of it, the Raving Monster Looney Party are gone without Lord Sutch, AND UKIP appeal to people who want Britain back!!!!

[ichkeria]

The problem with the idea that UKIP is anything more than a refuge for protest votes is, as indicated earlier, the narrowness of the outlook of the actual party. They are basically ex-Tories and right-wing fogeys who are riding high on displeasure with the EU in particular and 'mainstream' politicians in general. Their big attraction is that they can claim not to be responsible for any of Britain's ills as they've never been in power but their actual policies or plans for things like the economy are vague to day the least. But they can offer vacuous promises like 'giving us back Britain' which is a gamble to nothing really. An effectively meaningless slogan which sounds great somehow come the day the UK 'goes it alone' I don't think it'll lead to the promised land somehow

[douglas9401]

UKIP stands no chance whatsoever while established parties continue to do a first class job on all fronts, home and abroad.

[naomi24]

Ichkeria, Good summary. It might not lead to the promised land, but the accurate claim that they are not responsible for any of Britain's ills as they've never been in power, and they can offer [vacuous] promises like 'giving us back Britain' are certainly a carrot to the electorate, no?

[ChillDoubt]

I concur with douglas9401's post.



Some people had better start to wake up.

[jake-the-peg]

Could anybody who thinks UKIP is more than a protest vote explain UKIP's financial policies, foreign policies, education and health policies after they've withdrawn us from Europe?

[emmie]

no, but then again, have you seen anything from any of the parties, particularly Labour, who may well win the next election, there are no substantial policies from them, not only about the EU, but on how they will tackle the economy, and then immigration. Because that is always the problem, the opposition lambaste the ones in the hot seat, but when they get in they face exactly the same problems, and don't necessarily have the answers to the country's problems.

[LazyGun]

I think, come the general election, that people will pay more attention, when placing their vote for their local MP to what usually motivates them - National issues that might affect their pocket, them or their family, and local issues, like schools, garbage collection etc.

UKip still have to make the breakthrough at a local level -only around 100 councillors spread around the country - to be seen as a true party of protest. But, they could get there, because the simple message - EU and immigrants bad- and the solutions they offer - withdraw from the EU and implement strong border controls and more restrictive barriers to immigration - are simple-sounding solutions.

And these issues will resonate, all the more so at a time of austerity ,when even the trade and business case for a strong EU looks shaky.And I went and took a look at their 2010 national manfesto again just the other day, and they do have policies for the other important areas of governance.

Some of their ideas seem potty, to me, but there are issues there where they share a goal and a method with the other mainstream parties.

So, come a general election in 2015, I do not think they will do very much better than they are right now, but the european elections could be another story altogether. We could end up being having virtually all our MEPs drawn from UKip, a party that has no base in local or national government, which would be rather odd.

And, newish parties need time to grow and develop, as do their policies. So not much in 2015 - but, unless the major parties are seen to engage with these significant issues, like immigration and the EU, they could do much better in 2020.

For anyone interested, UKip manifesto link below;
http://www.ukip.org/page/ukip-national-manifesto

[eastern]

Look at what's happened in Italy due to protest voting, a comedian gets 20% of the vote.