Where Are People Catching Covid-19 From?

[AuntPollyGrey]

The UK has now been in lockdown nearly five weeks, longer than it takes an individual to catch CV-19 and show signs, therefore the hundreds of new cases admitted yesterday into hospital and the 813 people who died in hospital yesterday must have caught the virus after the lockdown -or did they? Where are people catching the virus? In supermarkets? From delivered shopping? Post? Why is the Government not researching where people are catching the virus from now we are in lockdown.?

[naomi24]

According to the World Health Organisation's special envoy for Covid-19, David Nabarro, we are going to have to learn to live with it. I think he might be right.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-52369969/who-s-nabarro-we-must-learn-to-live-with-covid-19

[pixie374]

Thanks again, Jim x I'm not saying it for sympathy, just showing that excess deaths might not always be counted, even if directly because of it. If that makes sense...

[pixie374]

He is right. We are hoping for herd immunity and a vaccine in the long-term, while protecting vulnerable people as much as possible in the short-term.

[SparklyKid]

I think so as well naomi24. Hopefully three generations down the line and our species may have developed a tolerance.

[jim360]

Perhaps in the long-term, although in the short term it makes sense to try not to overwhelm the health services and give us time to develop treatments and the like.

I'm naturally optimistic about humanity's ability to overcome this, given enough time and energy. We've already destroyed two diseases and are well on the way to wiping out a few others.

[fiction-factory]

>Thanks again, Jim x I'm not saying it for sympathy, just showing that excess deaths might not always be counted, even if directly because of it. If that makes sense...

Sorry Pixie- I'm still not understanding the point you want to make. Yes, the deaths from Covid/with Covid issue and the fact that Covid as a cause/factor may be missed by some doctors, mean that we don't know the exact impact. We do however have the Excess Mortality data that jim360 talked about which just give total deaths- and that is running at 60% or so above the 'normal' rate. If you are saying that 60% may not all be due to Covid infection you will be right, but it is probably also true that other deaths for non Covid illnesses - maybe heart attacks- have increased because people are frightened of going into hospital or troubling their doctor

[Zacs-Master]

Also concern about strokes and a correlation with CV19:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

[woofgang]

I don't think I haved heard anybody...well anybody sensible that is....say anything apart from that COVID is out there and we will have to develop ways to live with it.

[AuntPollyGrey]

Woofgang I think that is because , simply put, no one really knows for sure as the virus is in its early stages. It could be the virus itself mutates into something less deadly -or more deadly -who knows? I still think more research should be done on how the virus is transmitted. Simply telling people to wash their hands obviously is not working.

[woofgang]

APG I think it is.... The measures we are taking are....I know stock phrase.....flattening the curve and slowing the spread. No one ever said...well again no one sensible....that the suggested precautions would stop transmission or eradicate the virus. From my experience of Norovirus (winter vomitting) proper frequent handwashing and alcohol gel use when you can't do that are an amazingly powerful tool.

[Spicerack]

There's evidence that social distancing works better than the lockdown. No idea why.

[jim360]

Source please.

[AuntPollyGrey]

Spicerack if you are referring to Sweden I think that country has a different demography to other nations. Also the thought process is that if you allow people to socialise using social distancing rules they are more likely to follow those rules than if you basically try and make them a prisoner in their own houses. Unfortunately in the UK there are factions where 'give an inch take a mile' is the norm, hence them enforcing a lockdown

[Spicerack]

They've compared the numbers from similar US States. Some with a lockdown, some without. They appear to be either on a par or the non-lockdowns doing better.
I'm sure there could be other reasons than the lockdown involved but I think it's interesting.
There's a similar pattern with similar countries.

[jim360]

Likely to be other factors at play. In New York State, for example, the lockdown is likely to have been implemented "too late" to save many.

[margarettom]

The population of England is just under 68 000 000 people. So far the number of deaths is just over 20 000. This is ( if my maths is correct 0.03% of the population. Some of these people would have died anyway. So although I am very careful, being in the extremely vulnerable category, I don't deny myself a walk, as I don't think it is 'blowing about ' out there, and as all my friends, neighbours and other acquaintances are self isolating and none of them to date has the virus, I don't think it's easily caught from Mail or shopping. That being said, only one of them has regular contact with carers, so there may be something in that. There are still people not sticking to the rules. I was told today about an elderly man who regularly visits his daughter and she works in a supermarket, which is perhaps why people are still catching it and being hospitalised.

[margarettom]

Sorry, population of UK.

[Spicerack]

It was one of dozens of videos I watched, jim. A Californian doctor reading from CDC information. I might be able to find it and I might not. Have you asked everyone else for their 'source'?

[jim360]

No, but then Zacs, Naomi, Pixie (by proxy), APG, and others provided their sources anyway.

It was a bold statement and I was surprised and wanted to see what you were basing it on. I'm not going to deny that I was (and still am) incredulous, but I also want to learn more about this, so any evidence of the sort you were mentioning I want to see.

[woofgang]

spicerack when you say "there is evidence" its not helpful if you don't link to the evidence.