Reeling In Lockdown Roadmap

[eve1974]

Do you think stricter lockdowns may be imposed again (cos of Indian variant).

Nothing wld surprise me .... but hoping I’m wrong

[Bobbisox1]

Not sure but would people take another lockdown ?, I fear they wouldn’t Eve

[Buenchico]

I think that some sort of 'tier' structure might be introduced, resulting in local/regional lockdowns. The scientists largely seem to agree that we'll see another wave of Covid over the summer but it remains to be seen just how big or severe that wave actually is.

Don't throw away your masks just yet though!

[Peter Pedant]

doan be such a moaner
poss local
BUT
they have been looking at Burnley and Bolton and.....
natural history seems no different to what has gone before

[Bobbisox1]

Part of my make up now Chris ;0)

[burlyshirley]

I hope not eve - enough's enough !

[Buenchico]

I'm not in a hurry to get rid of the masks anyway, Bobbi. I'll have to start shaving more often again ;-)

[Bobbisox1]

Same here Chris ;0)))

[Ken4155]

PP, who has been looking at Burnley and Bolton?

[Peter Pedant]

Chris - the north seems emmeshed in politics
naughty naughty people INCLUDING scientists who Should Know Better are taking up a political position
labour - way-hey more seclusion on the way!
tories - let the drinks run free !

and then bending the facts their way

this am on radio 4 - marxist journo meets marxist independent SAGE member
Journo - the indian variant does come from India?
Sage - we dont like places. It is like the Kent variant - how can that be Kent when it is everywhere ? and came from Kent !
journo - India from India - innit?
Sage - yes - multiple times and so multiple covars actually

oops that was a bit of a slip !

naughty sage scientist should be reading the data and converting it to information ( wiv her brayne ) and interpreting it

instead we get propaganda

Oh and whilst I am here - if any one is interested in the Daniel Morgan axe-in-head murder - Ch4 Murder in the car park - three x one hour
and you CAN see why it gets onto Line of Duty as a one-liner

[AuntPollyGrey]

There is a huge elephant in the number 10 room - the clue is in the 'Indian' variant. Until the Black and Asian minorities take vaccintaion on board we will forever have Covid 19 in our midst. No one will dare 'make' them get vaccinated and everyone will suffer because of it.

[eve1974]

On that note APG I do wonder why we were discouraged from
Calling it “Chinese “ virus as non PC but the government is happily calling the variant the Indian variant?

[AuntPollyGrey]

Because (cough cough) it was never proved it came for china.....and it has been proved the Indian variant came from India.

[Peter Pedant]

// PP, who has been looking at Burnley and Bolton?//
O god the whole of the NHS branch of prediction - sage ( nerds numbers) and independent sage

see below

it is the real life crucible for what happens wivda indian variant
The upstroke ( gradient of the log plot of the numbers of new cases against time) give an rough idea of R - number
Doubling time - two weeks is R = 3 about and they SAID they were doubling in one week - R of around 4 to 5 ( measles = 12 )

but perhaps not - - - and does the analysis work if there is already Covid raging - all ask

Numbers of vaccinated ( more or less than national average ) are in contention
Numbers of refusals are disputed
Proportion of asians - disputed, proportions asians vacc.....disputed

oh la de dah we will never know -wait for the numbers

no capeeshee ? well dont ask technical questions then

[Peter Pedant]

All ask - thx to Kai lung unrolls his mat - Ernest bramah. 1934

[Peter Pedant]

kentish. Indian, Asian
i wd rather spend time quarrelling over the R number

[eve1974]

Indeed PP

[Ken4155]

My fault for asking a sensible question, i suppose. Should have known better than to expect a sensible answer:-((
Only asked because when i read our local rag on Friday, cases were going down.

[New Judge]

I think the “Indian Variant” has been a worry for about ten days. In that time:

- daily new cases have barely changed (7 day average high, 2297, low 2190)

- Average daily deaths have decreased from 10 to 8 (single figures for the past five days)

- Daily hospital admissions have reduced from 106 to 89.

- The numbers in hospital have reduced from over 1100 to just over 900.

There seems to be no adverse effects of the variant thusfar.

[Mamyalynne]

Ken, the Government has been scrutinizing what's going on here (Bolton) as well as a couple of other hotspots for the B1617.2, cases have risen as have hospital admissions but a huge surge in getting vaccines out via easily accessed routes (buses etc) is showing a good take up.

Of those in hospital just now 90% are unvaccinated.

[Peter Pedant]

chrissakes

It's rate now stands at 33.7 cases per 100,000 people - up from 25.9 the previous week - and has climbed above Chorley (32.1) and Preston (30.7) into top spot.

England's new average rate is 24.3 with 109 of the 315 local
authorities seeing a rise in rates.

these are small numbers - but from acorns large oak trees have grown in the last two years

so - - -" is vere a lorra of it about? yeah, foo!"
is the short answer - sozza