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Election Seats Predictions

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Gromit | 12:04 Wed 05th May 2010 | News
19 Answers
My prediction for the 650 seats:

Conservative - 273
Labour - 266
LibDem - 81
Others - 30

Overall majority is 326 so Conservatives are 53 short. Hung Parliament.

What are you predicted numbers?
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monster raving loony party to have a landside victory!!!
obviously landslide not landside.
We are doomed then.
>We are doomed then

What, if the tories get most seats, or the monster raving loony party get in?

Either way it must be better than what we have now.

My family and I are careful with our money. Me, my wife, and 2 grown up children, paid off our mortgage, owe no money, and owe nothing on credit cards.

Yet Gordon Brown and the Labour government borrowed 163 BILLION POUNDS last year.

That is 60 MILLION MORE than has been lent to Greece to get them out of their mess.

Why should I look after my money, then vote for a prat like Brown who put the country into so much debt (I know the banks did there bit, but it was not ALL down to them).

http://news.bbc.co.uk.../business/8636701.stm
It's Cameron's Big Society that really appeals. As these people will all agree:

http://tinyurl.com/2vkhwaw

Have a read.
I'm not voting for Brown.......keeps on about being prudent .....my bum.

I'm the same as VHG, worked all my life, have never claimed benefits, paid off my mortgage early, and owe nothing on my credit cards. Brown is a financial disaster, and that's not taking into account the price he sold our gold off for.

If the Lib Dems keep him in Downing Street they'll never recover from the shame.
A lot of us still have jobs and businesses because of Gordon Brown's borrowing.

He didn't borrow that money and have a big bonfire at No. 10 you know

That money stopped the banks from collapsing.

Collapsing banks would have foreclosed on mortgages and businesses

This was at the same time that Cameron was prancing around going on about the need to reduce "red tape" in the City.

A bit more red tape in the city Dave and we might not have this sort of national debt!
you think the fact that the Greek population is about 10 million - say an eighth of ours - might be a factor, VHG?

As for Tory prudence, don't forget Black Wednesday, when the Bank of England had to spend about £20 million in a single day trying to prop us up. You think Osborne is smarter than that? Bet on it.
At the risk of sounding like a bleeding heart liberal.....

If you work hard, have no debt and have paid off your mortgage, you're sort of alright aren't you? You're fine. Actually, so am I. So is pretty much everyone who who posts messages on AB - simply by virtue of being able to sit at a computer.

Whoever gets in - Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem - you're basically going to continue to be alright whatever happens. Might be a bit worse off, might be a bit better off. But let's be honest, none of us on this website will know real, humiliating, desperate hardship.

So what is it you're voting for? Is it to make sure you're slightly better off, have better holidays, cheaper petrol? Is it to make yourself 2% richer, or 1% happier? Are you voting solely on what's best for you?

That's absolutely your right. Let's face it, nearly everyone else will be. But why not vote for once according to who really needs it? Cast a vote for those people whose health, dignity and basic welfare might be utterly f*cked on Friday if you do nothing.

Then again, that might mean forgoing the married couple's tax break. So sod it.
Statistical genius Nate Silver predicted the correct result between Barack Obama and John McCain in 49 of America's states.

The baseball nerd who used his genius for statistics to make startlingly accurate predictions in the 2008 US presidential race has weighed into the British election – and his conclusions make chilling reading for Labour.on his blog, presenting his own alternative methodology that suggests a disastrous May 6 performance for Labour.

Silver's method breaks up the monolithic uniform swing and instead assigns specific percentages of the parties' votes in 2005 to other parties in 2010. Using a recent polling average of the three main parties – with the Conservatives on 34%, the Lib Dems on 29.1%, and Labour on 26.9% – the differences between the two methods become stark.
Using uniform swing, those percentages translate into
253 Labour MPs,
271 Conservatives,
93 Lib Dems.
Using Silver's method,
Labour ends up with just 214,
with the Conservatives surging to 304,
and the Lib Dems on 101.
That's interesting. I'd be interested to see how that's reflected using today's polls. The YouGov one for the Sun has Con at 35%, Lab at 30% and Lib Dem at 24% I think.
Quiny: "But let's be honest, none of us on this website will know real, humiliating, desperate hardship"

I wonder why that would be? Perhaps we worked hard to get a decent education and subsequently a decent job and hopefuly created a decent standard of living. Are you surprised when some of us are mightily angry when we hear of scum every day gtting it all for nowt?
The labour candidate for my area is really good, but most people here would happily vote him back in, if gordon stepped down.
-- answer removed --
In reply to Quinlad's question ...

Yep ... I am voting solely on the basis of what is best for me.

And so, if they are honest, is everyone else.
I love that point of view, R1.

It's congratulating yourself on being clever while simultaneously saying something massively stupid. Quite, quite special.
not clever, just worked hard, everyone has at least the same chance as me, I grew up on a council estate, both parents where useless. most of my siblings where useless, I wanted more. I have understanding for genuine cases and nothing but contempt for lowlife lazy scrounging scum.
The minimum wage; NHS waiting lists slashed; record school funding (my students shared books in buildings held up by their windows in the 1980/90s); equality legislation; Sure Start; child tax credits; winter fuel allowance etc. I could go on. Does anyone seriosly think that a tory government would have done any of this?
At a time of crisis, Brown is doing his best to prop up the economy so that we don't go into a double dip recession and Cameron wants record cuts in spending whilst cutting inheritance tax for his rich friends.God help us all if Osborne gets into the treasury.
just deciding which of my hats to eat if your prediction of 266 (or more) seats for labour happens.....

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