Swine Flu numbers

[Barquentine]

Does anyone know why France has 310 cases while we have over 7,400 - 24x more than across the Channel? Source is: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30485593/

Germany only has 505 & Italy only 146.

[LazyGun]

Not quite sure what kind of answer you want, Barquentine. You might just as well ask why Russia only has 3 recorded cases.

It is unlikely to be a single reason, but more likely to be a combination of reasons, such as those I have listed below.

1. Wider initial exposure to the virus -
Would promote a greater and faster spread in the population - So, it might simply be that, initially,many more Brits were in Mexico / Canada than other european nationalities, and thus exposed to the virus.
2. Testing procedure -
The gold standard test is PCR - some countries have made extensive use of a rapid version of this test, which is less accurate, so more positives will be recorded.
3.Reporting procedure -
Now that diagnoses are being made on the basis of a list of symptoms, it could simply be that more people in the UK are inclined to report their symptoms, be diagnosed as having H1N1, ( possibly incorrectly), and put on the list.
4. Cultural attitudes to preventing virus infection -
At least one poll has suggested that 75% of Brits have not altered their hygiene routines at all, even though official recommended advice would suggest more frequent handwashing, for example.

[Mr Veritas]

Of course both these governments may only be listing "reported" cases.
Russia in particualr,given it's large population, may not WANT to acknowledge that it has many cases,the same could be said of France.
A slight case of "hiding one's head in the sand" maybe?

[Mr Veritas]

PS:~ The same with Germany & Italy.
They don't want panic,but we are made of sterner stuff (I trust?)

[sqad617]

Lazygun....interesting and an informed answer, but my main query is, if serology for H1N1 is not to be taken routinely, than how is the diagnosis going to be made and how will we know the prevalence of H1N1

? Diagnosis by assumption.

[LazyGun]

Its a good point sqad. The diagnostic process at the moment appears to be, essentially, a checklist of symptoms.
I am not a fan of this approach, but I can kind of understand the reasons why they are doing this, given the sheer numbers of calls they are getting.
Then,assuming all the diagnostic boxes on the checklist are ticked, it would appear that a presumptive diagnosis of H1N1 is being made, based upon the fact that "no other 'flu strain is around at this time of year"

Given that people can often be hypochondriacs, and that many of these diagnoses are being made over the phone, I would question the accuracy of any quoted figures in respect of the spread of swine flu.

[sqad617]

lazygun...I would agree, but in 3months time, heralds the onset of the rhino flu viruses and then there will be a mixture of them all.

[ACtheTROLL]

It's all the fault of the americans

they said pigs would fly before they got a black president ... then it happened ... and swine flew

[rov1200]

The chief medical officer said on TV it was because of the large flow of airline passengers from the US. The government could have nipped it in the bud early on by quarantining incoming passengers for a few days but the freedom of the few outweighed 60 million already here. Now everyone is likely to get it.

Its not rocket science. We have remained free from the rabies virus by quarantining animals. This flu virus can come and go as it pleases.

[Mike-Robe]

Hi, I have just registered, and this question is in my line of work. The answer to getting accurate numbers of cases in the UK is that there are several different methods used by the HPA (for the detail put "HPA swine flu surveillance" into google).

There is some active daily swabbing of patients atending "spotter" GP practices - a network covering about 400,000 of the population. These swabs are tested by PCR for the different strains of flu and also cultured to check whether the virus is changing.

Together with the data from hospital admissions (and deaths) and from patients symptoms a fairly accuate picture emerges...

[LazyGun]

Mike, thanks for the clarification and link to the HPA site.. very interesting reading.