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Your Method Of Easing Lockdown
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Some people here seem to be in a permanent state of confusion over what I think are quite simple guidelines for the gradual easing of lockdown and for getting people back to work….so here’s their opportunity to shine. If you were in charge, how would you do it?
Answers
Expanding on the OP slightly, I would be more adventurous. Since the A levels season is upon us (whether the exams are sat or not). Year 13 will not be in school/
13:13 Thu 14th May 2020
Jim's quote which you ran with.
Avatar Image fiction-factory>The Coronavirus has already cost more lives in a month than most flu seasons do in a year
Yes, and that's with lockdown and shielding in place. Imagine what the excess deaths would have been if we'd just carried on as normal21:50 Thu 14th May 2020
Avatar Image fiction-factory>The Coronavirus has already cost more lives in a month than most flu seasons do in a year
Yes, and that's with lockdown and shielding in place. Imagine what the excess deaths would have been if we'd just carried on as normal21:50 Thu 14th May 2020
It is worth mentioning that ONS statistics recorded 29,243 deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the Death certificate between April 4rd and May 1st (ie, one month) (data for England and Wales only). This exceeds the upper limit of all recent flu seasons, including the 2014/2015 flu (ie, one year -- data for entire UK). I'm sure it isn't quite so neat as one month vs. one year, but it's as near as dammit.
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I'm not clever enough to get your new figures on my screen never mind analyse them.
However,
According to many sources, including the aBBC,
26,000 people died of covid in total from Feb-May 1st.
And I remembered app. 25,000 people died of flu every year.
I did notice you sneakily slipped the word 'with' into your figures.
Tut, tut, the depths some people will sink to bamboozle a thicko off a building site.
However,
According to many sources, including the aBBC,
26,000 people died of covid in total from Feb-May 1st.
And I remembered app. 25,000 people died of flu every year.
I did notice you sneakily slipped the word 'with' into your figures.
Tut, tut, the depths some people will sink to bamboozle a thicko off a building site.
//There's something just wonderfully special about seeing someone value the nation's health over their own personal interests//
I don’t know who you’re talking about, Jim, but how is concern for the country’s economy valuing one’s own personal interests over the nation’s health? Without business the country - and that means everyone - is plunged into poverty which brings with it hardship that you would never wish to experience - and that is healthy for no one.
I don’t know who you’re talking about, Jim, but how is concern for the country’s economy valuing one’s own personal interests over the nation’s health? Without business the country - and that means everyone - is plunged into poverty which brings with it hardship that you would never wish to experience - and that is healthy for no one.
The ONS figures supersede every other source because, for example, the Government sources until recently only counted hospitals. They are also the most comprehensive, since it provides a complete picture also of how many people are dying, which across April was horrific -- as much as 120% above normal for a couple of weeks.
There's no sneaking either. Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. That is not necessarily the same as dying of Covid-19 but as we have established it is tricky to assess, and in the end the most trustworthy figure is all-cause mortality and excess deaths, because that represents the total human cost of the pandemic.
// And I remembered app. 25,000 people died of flu every year. //
You remembered wrong, then. That's true in the worst flu seasons but it fluctuates -- although this too is difficult to assess. Are people dying of flu or with flu? The only way to compare like with like is in measuring excess mortality. In all cases, CoronaVirus comes out ahead.
You're bamboozling yourself. I'm merely providing you with the information.
There's no sneaking either. Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. That is not necessarily the same as dying of Covid-19 but as we have established it is tricky to assess, and in the end the most trustworthy figure is all-cause mortality and excess deaths, because that represents the total human cost of the pandemic.
// And I remembered app. 25,000 people died of flu every year. //
You remembered wrong, then. That's true in the worst flu seasons but it fluctuates -- although this too is difficult to assess. Are people dying of flu or with flu? The only way to compare like with like is in measuring excess mortality. In all cases, CoronaVirus comes out ahead.
You're bamboozling yourself. I'm merely providing you with the information.
As a more general point, I certainly had no intention of moving the goalposts. It's not impossible that I managed to anyway. But then that's the point of providing the raw data. You don't need to rely on my, possibly-flawed, interpretation of it. The data speaks for itself if you're prepared to listen.
Still, it should be fairly clear that what the ONS data says is that the human death toll from about the middle of March until May 1st (last date for which data is available, on Tuesday the figures will be updated to include week ending May 8th) was about 90% higher than average for England/Wales, and that a significant proportion of this can be attributed to Covid-19. It will take some time (something I've made clear several times) to fully understand this.
Still, it should be fairly clear that what the ONS data says is that the human death toll from about the middle of March until May 1st (last date for which data is available, on Tuesday the figures will be updated to include week ending May 8th) was about 90% higher than average for England/Wales, and that a significant proportion of this can be attributed to Covid-19. It will take some time (something I've made clear several times) to fully understand this.
// Dying with Covid mentioned on the death cert. is different to dying OF Covid. //
Indeed, but this is why the focus has shifted in recent weeks to all-cause excess mortality, which sidesteps that ambiguity. If, in normal circumstances, you can expect c. 10,000 deaths a week, and if, after a novel virus for which there is no natural immunity emerges, you see that jump up to 20,000+ deaths, then it is not unreasonable to draw a link between the two.
There will remain a great deal to understand about this, and it is indeed sadly certain that we'll never fully know the true death toll of Covid-19, either because of the with/of debate or because in some countries the statistics aren't even made honestly available for one reason or another. What we *do* know is that this new virus can and does kill, and clearly has done so in significant numbers.
Indeed, but this is why the focus has shifted in recent weeks to all-cause excess mortality, which sidesteps that ambiguity. If, in normal circumstances, you can expect c. 10,000 deaths a week, and if, after a novel virus for which there is no natural immunity emerges, you see that jump up to 20,000+ deaths, then it is not unreasonable to draw a link between the two.
There will remain a great deal to understand about this, and it is indeed sadly certain that we'll never fully know the true death toll of Covid-19, either because of the with/of debate or because in some countries the statistics aren't even made honestly available for one reason or another. What we *do* know is that this new virus can and does kill, and clearly has done so in significant numbers.
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