Blair to solve Arab Israeli stalemate

[kwicky]

Blair has today embarked on his job as Middle East envoy. His mandate is to exclude Hamas from the talks. Has he any chance of solving the crisis?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6 911205.stm

[Gromit]

Blairs job is not as a peace envoy. The Us has firmly put him in his place.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml =/news/2007/07/20/wblair120.xml

He is responsible for building up the Palestiaian economy.

On the wider picture, there has never been any successful peace talks anywhere in the world by excluding one of the major players. They will have to talk to Hamas if they want to get anywhere.

Wearing my cynical head today, the weakening of Fatah and the consequent rise is Hamas is a classic divide your enemy strategy. Then excluding Hamas indicates that the US and the Israelis do not genuinely want peace just as Hamas do not.

I don't think we will see a Northern Ireland type shifting of atitudes away from war in the middle east.

[Whickerman]

In that case, he's got about as much chance of success as Thatcher did in Northern Ireland when she refused to talk to republicans.

[kwicky]

Although the USA refuses to0 talk to Hamas and Blair does not have the mandate to either, it may be left to Russia who have already entertained them and listened to their side of the story. As one of the quartet is Russian he will not be totally ignorant of the feelers put out.
Everyone involved knows that Blair is a stooge of the USA and Condi Rice is showing signs of jealousy so maybe he can be a voice of Hamas and Israel as a proxy spokesman to deal with Sergei Lavrov on behalf of Hamas.

[kwicky]

Sorry I meant Blair as a proxy spokeman for Fatah and Israel as against Hamas for Sergei Lavrov.

[Gromit]

With the breakdown of the Oslo Accords, Israel rufused to deal with Fatah and the Peace talks were stalled for many years. Israel said they could no longer trust Arafat and it vwas only when he was gone that things could progress. After Arafat died there was still no progress and out of this stalemate rose Hamas. Now that the Palestinians are split, the Israelis are backing one side against the other, and surprise surprise, that side is Fatah who they have refused to deal with for the past decade.

On a more optimistic note, Blair will probably out live the American Republican Administration in his role in the middle east. If he is allowed to, he will probably do a good job in the West Bank and gain some trust from Abbas. Blair's role could change and he could be the perfect bridge between the Israelis and the Palestinians. But Hamas cannot be ignored or sidelined. They are a problem that will have to be faced - the sooner the better.

[kwicky]

This is the key to soving the crisis coupled with Blair acting for the Israelis

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4 698240.stm

[Gromit]

kwicky
The visit mentioned in your link took place in March and can be dismissed as a bit of political opportunism on Moscows part. Certainly, Islamist Hamas and Putin would be strange bedfellows. From what I can glean from the reports, it was more a gesture than a genuine desire to help.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4 769204.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4 769112.stm

In truth, Russia has no influence in the area and their aligning with Hamas will probably make things worse.

[Gromit]

PS,
Putin did in fact back track and did not meet the Hamas delegation himself.

[Gromit]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4 769204.stm

[kwicky]

I'm certain that if Hamas wanted Putin as a backer in negotiations this would follow just as Bush will get involved if Condi Rice made progress. At present it is left in his minister Sergei Lavrov who deals with foreign affairs.