Where's The Uk Exit Strategy?

[diddlydo]

France and Spain have announced detailed plans for their phased ending of lockdown. Although the UK is a little bit behind them in terms of the Covid crisis, the British public deserve to be given some sort of hope of the return to the "new normal".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52459030

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52459034

[woofgang]

Desky by staying home and being patient, you ARE looking after the old and vulnerable.

[fiction-factory]

So do nurses and supermarket wear masks/visors just so they don't infect patients/customers?
Anyway, the whole issue of PPE needs looking at. I will want lots of sanitiser and maybe disposable gloves as I touch loads of exercise/text books and equipment every lesson plus desks and doors

[fiction-factory]

Anyway at the briefing Chris Whitty pretty much said they are currently estimating the likely impact, mainly in terms of R0, of various measures such as reopening schools and then the info will be used by ministers.
I think, given the survey result earlier, most would be happy to know an announcement on the broad strategy will be made at say the end of next week, and will understand if the timescales are in a range

[Theland]

On the assumption that the virus is always going to be around and everyone will eventually get it, then the criteria is a well stocked NHS, and an infection rate of about 0.3, so the NHS can easily cope, when that happens, open for business.

[roopower]

Opening schools will be very difficult. Most children will be looking forward to returning, especially to meet up with friends. Even if there are only 15 children in the class, it will be impossible to stop close interaction and it has now been shown that children can get the virus.

[diddlydo]

DD at 8.27 - for once I agree with you! As an "old and vulnerable" i.e. over 70, I'm prepared to take my chance.

[dannyk13]

Diddly// I'm prepared to take my chance.//
So purely to allow you your wishes you are prepared to put anybody else at risk?

[NickorWan]

//most of these exit strategies just state the obvious . we'll start when ready. we'll do it in stages. we'll monitor and tighten if necessary.//

Have you actually read the one mentioned in the OP for Spain, ff?

[dannyk13]

Diddly, I suggest that you read this:-
ttps://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-germanys-rate-of-covid-19-infections-grows-after-lockdown-eased-11980194

[dannyk13]

You'll find the link here:-
https://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1705110.html

[mushroom25]

The last of five tests which the government say have to be met before social distancing measures can be reviewed, appears to have been tweaked -

previously, it had stated a ruling out of lifting the lockdown unless officials were 'confident that any adjustment to current measures will not risk a second peak of infections'.

at yesterday's Downing Street press briefing the wording had been altered so the new benchmark was to avoid a second peak of infections 'that overwhelms the NHS'.

kinda looks like the government thinks a second wave is inevitable.

[fiction-factory]

I think it is a recognition that easing the lockdown even partially could push the R closer to 1 and could mean an increase in admissions and then deaths, but so long as R0 doesn't go up too much (necessitating a tightening again), a small increase may be manageable

[fiction-factory]

theland said "and an infection rate of about 0.3"

Well it's currently said to be around 0.75 if you mean R0 so there is a long way to go to meet that requirement

[Zacs-Master]

I’m pretty sure that we’ll see similar announcements at the end of the current ‘lockdown’ IF, as ff says, the R number is achieved/lowered.

There are several ‘IFs’ in the BBC article.

[douglas9401]

Is 'R' reinfection or something very secret?

[Grandpappy]

I only have one thing to say to Deskdiary - Goodbye!

[Zacs-Master]

It’s R0 or Rzero to be more accurate. If the R0 number is 3 it means infected people will pass on CV to 3 other people. It’s not wholly accurate as a given pathogen's R value changes with place and time, but it’s a good guide.

[fiction-factory]

Nickorwan- yes, Spain's is fairly detailed in parts but they are quite a it ahead of us in the cycle. I was referring to the exit plans from The Scottish and Welsh governments here which look like strategies but are just bland generalisations with ifs and whens attached

[TheWholeTruth]

@ the OP

"Allow pub gardens to open with distancing.
Allow close family members to meet in groups limited to 10.
That would do for a start."

yeah, and people like you will be the first to complaining and screaming when it all kicks off again because people arent playing by the book etc....get real..oh no, you dont do real

[New Judge]

//If the R0 number is 3 it means infected people will pass on CV to 3 other people. It’s not wholly accurate...//

The understatement of the year. It is not known how many people currently have the virus; it is not known how many people have had it and suffered either minor or no symptoms; it is not known how many people have had it, suffered fairly severe symptoms (but not bad enough to be hospitalised); it is not known whether or not you can be infected for a second or subsequent time. Apart from that we know all there is to know about it - which amounts to how many people have been hospitalised with it and how many - roughly - have died either with or from it. But it seems we can say how many people on average each sufferer infects (well, somewhere between 0.3 and 3.0 - possibly). A bit tricky, I would suggest, when it is not known how many sufferers there are or have been.

The lockdown and other restrictive measures are being maintained on the flimsiest of evidence, if any evidence at all. It's said that close contact increases risk. I agree with that only because it seems to be common sense. But alternative arrangements will have to be devised soon. For many reasons these current restrictions cannot go on until the illness disappears. Viruses that result in pandemics seem to have natural lifespan of around 12 to 24 months. If the country is to be shut down for that length of time far more people will die for reasons unrelated to the virus than will die from it. The cure really will be worse than the disease. I've seen no indication of that viewpoint being discussed, let alone accepted, and it will need to be debated soon.