ChatterBank2 mins ago
Ukip Nick Another One......
UKIP, that party that was never going to have any seats in Parliament now has two.... who's worrying more.... Dave or Millibland??
As for Cleggy.... less than 1% of the vote.... he should be embarrased to call himself a serious politician... they better hope there's no more
The result..
Mark Reckless (UKIP) 16,867 (42.10%)
Kelly Tolhurst (C) 13,947 (34.81%, -14.39%)
Naushabah Khan (Lab) 6,713 (16.76%, -11.70%)
Clive Gregory (Green) 1,692 (4.22%, +2.69%)
Geoff Juby (LD) 349 (0.87%, -15.39%)
Hairy Knorm Davidson (Loony) 151 (0.38%)
Stephen Goldsbrough (Ind) 69 (0.17%)
Nick Long (PBP) 69 (0.17%)
Jayda Fransen (Britain 1st) 56 (0.14%)
Mike Barker (Ind) 54 (0.13%)
Charlotte Rose (Ind) 43 (0.11%)
Dave Osborn (Pat Soc) 33 (0.08%)
Christopher Challis (Ind) 22 (0.05%)
As for Cleggy.... less than 1% of the vote.... he should be embarrased to call himself a serious politician... they better hope there's no more
The result..
Mark Reckless (UKIP) 16,867 (42.10%)
Kelly Tolhurst (C) 13,947 (34.81%, -14.39%)
Naushabah Khan (Lab) 6,713 (16.76%, -11.70%)
Clive Gregory (Green) 1,692 (4.22%, +2.69%)
Geoff Juby (LD) 349 (0.87%, -15.39%)
Hairy Knorm Davidson (Loony) 151 (0.38%)
Stephen Goldsbrough (Ind) 69 (0.17%)
Nick Long (PBP) 69 (0.17%)
Jayda Fransen (Britain 1st) 56 (0.14%)
Mike Barker (Ind) 54 (0.13%)
Charlotte Rose (Ind) 43 (0.11%)
Dave Osborn (Pat Soc) 33 (0.08%)
Christopher Challis (Ind) 22 (0.05%)
Answers
While I appreciate your need and intention in trying to gloss over the disaster that yesterday's vote has been for the Tories, ------------
13:43 Fri 21st Nov 2014
I will only take UKIP seriously when they win elections where their candidate is not the incumbent tory MP flying a 'New Flag
When will they win a seat with a new untried candidate against a long term incumbent MP?
Both the UKIP wins have been where the standing MP defects to UKIP and takes many of his supporters with him, that is a long way from winning outright with a new candidate.
When will they win a seat with a new untried candidate against a long term incumbent MP?
Both the UKIP wins have been where the standing MP defects to UKIP and takes many of his supporters with him, that is a long way from winning outright with a new candidate.
The Labour vote was down by 11.7%, whilst the Tory vote was down by 14.4%. That means it was definitely a better night for Ed than it was for Davy-boy, especially given that the former didn't have any great hopes of actually winning the seat anyway, whilst the latter had thrown everything - INCLUDING the kitchen sink - at achieving a victory!
I suspect there was a bit of a "let's (try and) keep UKIP" out factor as well which probably bolstered the Tory vote a little.
One thing is certain: this is NOT a "seismic shift" in British politics"as Farage is claiming (and he knows it but needs to talk it up as much as possible). As pointed out above, this is, like the last time, a vote for a known, sitting candidate who happens to have switched sides. And it was a by-election.
What has changed is that, at the moment at least, all of the UK (not just N Ireland, Scotland and Wales) is increasingly a multi-party democracy, which our electoral system, geared to two parties, makes for a really unpredictable election which opinion polls can't necessarily cater for.
One thing is certain: this is NOT a "seismic shift" in British politics"as Farage is claiming (and he knows it but needs to talk it up as much as possible). As pointed out above, this is, like the last time, a vote for a known, sitting candidate who happens to have switched sides. And it was a by-election.
What has changed is that, at the moment at least, all of the UK (not just N Ireland, Scotland and Wales) is increasingly a multi-party democracy, which our electoral system, geared to two parties, makes for a really unpredictable election which opinion polls can't necessarily cater for.
EDDIE although it is your right to take seriously who you like, here is a point: No one forced the previous Conservative voters to vote UKIP,they could have abandoned their vote or voted for the new Conservative MP THEY VOTED UKIP. Had they wished to vote Conservative they could have,in fact there was a danger that Mark Reckless would not get the Conservative vote as he jumped ship. Face it UKIP is a danger to both Labour and Conservative politicians and they know it. People voting UKIP are voting for UKIP not to get other Parities out. Believe me there will be Labour Politicians join UKIP too.
VHG has it right here. The Tories have lost what in any other circumstances should have been a safe seat, so how on earth could it be called a "respectable" result for dave ?
Eddie has also made a good point as well. This Constituency has, in effect, just re-voted the same MP back in. What would have been the result if Reckless had died or just resigned ? Then UKIP would have had to field a relatively unknown brand-new candidate....would they be celebrating this morning under those circumstances ?
So now Mr Farage has two MPs in Westminster...so what ? Much more importantly, the Tories have two less.
There have been 20 by-elections since the summer of 2010, and the Tories have only won one of them. That is a 5% success rate. So if dave is doing so well and Ed is doing so badly, why haven't they won a few more ?
Roll on next May !
Eddie has also made a good point as well. This Constituency has, in effect, just re-voted the same MP back in. What would have been the result if Reckless had died or just resigned ? Then UKIP would have had to field a relatively unknown brand-new candidate....would they be celebrating this morning under those circumstances ?
So now Mr Farage has two MPs in Westminster...so what ? Much more importantly, the Tories have two less.
There have been 20 by-elections since the summer of 2010, and the Tories have only won one of them. That is a 5% success rate. So if dave is doing so well and Ed is doing so badly, why haven't they won a few more ?
Roll on next May !
"Believe me there will be Labour Politicians join UKIP too. "
Most unlikely: Labour voters certainly, but it would bizarre if Labour politicians disaffected with their party (and probably more likely to be left-wing ones) were to join an ultra-right wing party.
UKIP has benefitted so far from a couple of right-wing Tories making the short political journey for them to UKIP, but I suspect that this result, rather closer than expected, means they may be the last. It was interesting that on Question Time last night Douglas Carswell stated that he "couldn't give a damn" or words to that effect, what Tory MPs did, which rather suggests he know fine well that there won't be more.
He and Reckless gambled on being able to hold on to their seats (Reckless was perhaps living up to his name more as his seat was less likely to be won and will probably revert to his old party next time). But I think if there are any more Tories thinking of jumping ship they might think twice now,, depending on where their seat is. "Standing up for one's political principles" so nobly only goes so far when your seat is at risk :-)
Most unlikely: Labour voters certainly, but it would bizarre if Labour politicians disaffected with their party (and probably more likely to be left-wing ones) were to join an ultra-right wing party.
UKIP has benefitted so far from a couple of right-wing Tories making the short political journey for them to UKIP, but I suspect that this result, rather closer than expected, means they may be the last. It was interesting that on Question Time last night Douglas Carswell stated that he "couldn't give a damn" or words to that effect, what Tory MPs did, which rather suggests he know fine well that there won't be more.
He and Reckless gambled on being able to hold on to their seats (Reckless was perhaps living up to his name more as his seat was less likely to be won and will probably revert to his old party next time). But I think if there are any more Tories thinking of jumping ship they might think twice now,, depending on where their seat is. "Standing up for one's political principles" so nobly only goes so far when your seat is at risk :-)
mikey are you suggeting that voters are so ignorant that they vote for the candidate rather than the Party? If darling milliband suddenly decided to join UKIP would you,robotic like' start chanting UKIP UKIP I love you? of course not! UKIP won fair and square . Why did labour lose nearly 12% of the vote ? Where did those voters go? Lib/Dems? obviously not lol!
Retro, neither I nor anyone else can say exactly where the votes came from in the move from one party to another. The certainty is that all three main parties - if the Lib Dems can still be counted within that select band! - lost substantial percentages, particularly the Tories whose seat Rochester and Strood was.
Plus, don't let us lose sight of the fact that the Tory candidate herself positively pleaded for supporters of other parties to support HER...one of the surest signs of desperation one can imagine! Some natural Labour supporters, however, may well have heeded her appeal.
Plus, don't let us lose sight of the fact that the Tory candidate herself positively pleaded for supporters of other parties to support HER...one of the surest signs of desperation one can imagine! Some natural Labour supporters, however, may well have heeded her appeal.
ichkeria if you think UKIP is 'ultra right wing' then you must think Labour is 'Ultra left Wing' - ludicrous. I support UKIP, I give money to UKIP. I go to their Conferences and know Nigel Farage personally. I am under no illusions that UKIP will gain control of the government, but this ' UKIP wasted vote' is now wearing a little thin. I also know that there WILL be Labour politicians jump ship.
The point about it being a sitting MP is that he is known to the electorate, and what is more has made huge headlines by defecting, so he has an advantage over an unknown (both an unknown UKIP candidate instead of him and an unknown Tory rival to him)
Even though he is not local and, in fact, exactly the sort of shifty career politician that UKIP claims to be crusading against.
Even though he is not local and, in fact, exactly the sort of shifty career politician that UKIP claims to be crusading against.
I don't think it's right to say that people voting for the MP, rather than the party, are "ignorant". That's a good part of the reason we still have constituency MPs, and indeed is one of the stronger arguments against some form of Proportional Representation: "It would lose the constituency link!"
At least some of the voters, then, might just have liked Mark Reckless as an MP. Coupled with his now representing a party that's not one of the three main parties (well, two + the LibDems), it wasn't exactly a surprise that he won the vote. So far, UKIP hasn't won an election with a fresh-faced candidate, although that record is probably going to come to an end in 2015.
All the same, this is probably a right-wing version of the SDP's successes in the early 1980s. Then the election proper came along and people reverted to type a lot more. The same is likely in 2015. When it comes to choosing a government people will want a party with the experience needed as well as broadly the right ideas on what to do. UKIP might well tick the second box, but that lack of experience will sway plenty of people who might have voted for them in a by-election towards voting for the Tories or Labour. Or even the LibDems.
At least some of the voters, then, might just have liked Mark Reckless as an MP. Coupled with his now representing a party that's not one of the three main parties (well, two + the LibDems), it wasn't exactly a surprise that he won the vote. So far, UKIP hasn't won an election with a fresh-faced candidate, although that record is probably going to come to an end in 2015.
All the same, this is probably a right-wing version of the SDP's successes in the early 1980s. Then the election proper came along and people reverted to type a lot more. The same is likely in 2015. When it comes to choosing a government people will want a party with the experience needed as well as broadly the right ideas on what to do. UKIP might well tick the second box, but that lack of experience will sway plenty of people who might have voted for them in a by-election towards voting for the Tories or Labour. Or even the LibDems.
"ichkeria if you think UKIP is 'ultra right wing' then you must think Labour is 'Ultra left Wing' - ludicrous"
Well I agree that it is a bit difficult to tell exactly where UKIP stand on issues, as recently Farage stated he was in favour of a national health scheme based on private insurance, then seemed to change dramatically to apparently supporting the NHS. At the start of the week Mr Reckless wanted to repatriate legal immigrants, and changed his tune on that one as well.
The truth is UKIP are a one-issue party who've suddenly found themselves in the political limelight as they attract the votes of people concerned about immigration but mostly people "fed up with the major parties". They've tapped into the pessimism of a certain breed of voter, risen in the polls, and now are thrashing abut trying to increase their appeal by changing or concealing the ideology of their core - it was telling that party activists were effectively told to shut up as election day approached, so as there was no risk of them saying anything embarrassing.
As for Labour defections to UKIP, there have been two defections to the Tories by elected Labour representatives since 1977. So to expect a Labour politician of any credibility to hop from their party over the Tories straight to UKIP is a fantasy.
Well I agree that it is a bit difficult to tell exactly where UKIP stand on issues, as recently Farage stated he was in favour of a national health scheme based on private insurance, then seemed to change dramatically to apparently supporting the NHS. At the start of the week Mr Reckless wanted to repatriate legal immigrants, and changed his tune on that one as well.
The truth is UKIP are a one-issue party who've suddenly found themselves in the political limelight as they attract the votes of people concerned about immigration but mostly people "fed up with the major parties". They've tapped into the pessimism of a certain breed of voter, risen in the polls, and now are thrashing abut trying to increase their appeal by changing or concealing the ideology of their core - it was telling that party activists were effectively told to shut up as election day approached, so as there was no risk of them saying anything embarrassing.
As for Labour defections to UKIP, there have been two defections to the Tories by elected Labour representatives since 1977. So to expect a Labour politician of any credibility to hop from their party over the Tories straight to UKIP is a fantasy.
Retrochic...I am not suggesting anything of the sort ! The same people voted for Reckless yesterday, as did in 2010. Not surprising at all...not even a little bit. But it was never going to be a Labour seat. Its dave and the Tories that lost last night, not Labour.
Its impossible to tell where the votes for anyone came from, as we have secret ballots in the UK. But I still maintain that the UKIP vote came mainly from Reckless's old supporters. It would be entirely counterintuitive to suggest otherwise !
UKIP has no previous record to protect here, as they didn't even put a candidate up in 2010.
Its impossible to tell where the votes for anyone came from, as we have secret ballots in the UK. But I still maintain that the UKIP vote came mainly from Reckless's old supporters. It would be entirely counterintuitive to suggest otherwise !
UKIP has no previous record to protect here, as they didn't even put a candidate up in 2010.
"So far, UKIP hasn't won an election with a fresh-faced candidate, although that record is probably going to come to an end in 2015.
All the same, this is probably a right-wing version of the SDP's successes in the early 1980s. Then the election proper came along and people reverted to type a lot more. The same is likely in 2015."
I wouldn't be so sure about a fresh-faced UKIP candidate winning a seat in 2015 to be honest.
Mention of the SDP is apposite: they had 28 defections to themselves from (mostly if not all?) Labour in the early 80s, and ended up with far fewer seats at the 1983 election.
All the same, this is probably a right-wing version of the SDP's successes in the early 1980s. Then the election proper came along and people reverted to type a lot more. The same is likely in 2015."
I wouldn't be so sure about a fresh-faced UKIP candidate winning a seat in 2015 to be honest.
Mention of the SDP is apposite: they had 28 defections to themselves from (mostly if not all?) Labour in the early 80s, and ended up with far fewer seats at the 1983 election.
It's a by-election, retrochic. A significant proportion of the votes for UKIP will be based on "screw the system" rather than the policies. It's why by-elections overwhelmingly go against the party in government. Right now, "the system" that people want to stick two fingers up to includes the main opposition party, and the LibDems, traditionally pretty good in by-elections, aren't an option either as they are in government. This leaves, basically, UKIP or the Green Party. Unfortunately for the Greens they just don't have someone with as forceful a personality as Nigel Farage.
So that means that if you want to protest against the system, you vote for UKIP at the moment. That's pretty much the case regardless of what you think of their policies. I'm sure that there are plenty of people who do support UKIP's policies, but it's not going to be even close to everyone who is actually voting UKIP. Tactical voting is playing its part in lifting them into Westminster.
So that means that if you want to protest against the system, you vote for UKIP at the moment. That's pretty much the case regardless of what you think of their policies. I'm sure that there are plenty of people who do support UKIP's policies, but it's not going to be even close to everyone who is actually voting UKIP. Tactical voting is playing its part in lifting them into Westminster.
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