Latest Electoral Calculus Predictions

[mikey4444]

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Very little change from last month. although then it was a 30% chance of a Labour majority and now its 33%. Still all to play for though !

Interesting article by Martin Baxter regarding UKIP's chance of any appreciable victory this May ::::

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/telegraph03_ukip.html

Vote UKIP, get the SNP apparently.

Interesting quote from the above article :::

"putting their money where their mouths are, the bookmakers (Ladbrokes, betfair and Paddy Power) have UKIP likely to win at most five seats"

Sorry all you UKIP supporters !

[naomi24]

Mikey, I’m not sure why you’d need to hold your nose to vote Tory, but we’ve been around the houses (no pun intended) with the sale council houses. I don’t agree with it either, and I thought that in all the years of Labour government they might stop it, but they didn’t. Why would they? It was a Labour idea in the first place – but then you know that. We’ve spoken about it several times.

[mikey4444]

We have indeed Naomi and I note that you agree with me that not to allow the proceeds raised to build replacement houses was a disaster.

But I can't really see that I will ever really have to hold my nose to vote Tory, and it was a figure of speech ! If ever I moved, I suppose I might have to hold me nose and vote LibDems, but it would be in an attempt to prevent a Tory win. As a Labour voter, I can never ever see myself voting Tory, for any reason whatsoever....I am not a floating voter and never have been !

[Svejk]

Mikey's been predicting 0 seats for UKIP for months and a Labour landslide for years. Nice to see him getting a bit realistic.

[anotheoldgit]

mikey4444

If you are so certain regarding a Labour victory, why are you so frightened of people voting UKIP?

[mikey4444]

As it now looks increasingly unlikely that UKIP with be a very damp squib this May, there is no need for anybody to fear them AOG ! And I certainly haven't, ever, been frightened of them. I just hold them up to ridicule once in a while.

I have just heard Farage being interviewed on the Today Program, and he is now backtracking on what his colleague said just two days ago, on the issue of immigration and a quota or cap. Osborne was interviewed just after, and to quote him ::::

"But asked about Mr Farage's comments, Mr Osborne told Today that Mr Farage seemed to be "making it up as he goes along", talking about a cap and then dropping it "live on air".

UKIP's policies are rather like London buses.....don't worry if you missed one, because a new one will be along in a minute.

If Farage and UKIP want to be taken seriously, and get away from the description that dave gave them a few year ago ( fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists ) then they need to be consistent, which they are far from being at the moment.