Bad weather forecasting and Climate Change

[Gromit]

After the Barbeque Summer that never was, the Met Office was forecasting as late as 29th November that we would have a Mild Winter.

//The Met Office forecast on Friday there was a 50 percent chance of a warmer winter than average this year for northern Europe, including Britain. The Met Office said there was only a 20 percent chance of a colder winter.//

http://uk.reuters.com...idUKTRE5AQ1JW20091127

How can we believe their 10 year and 50 year climate change forecasts, when the same people consistently get such short range forecasts so lamentably wrong?

[jno]

I gather we're particularly susceptible to quick changes in weather, having ocean on one side, continental land mass on the other (with nothing much this side of the Urals), the Arctic to the north and, um, Querqueville to the south. So there's not much point ever expecting forecasts to be be accurate... which does make you wonder why the Met Office bothers. Shouldn't they just busy themselves making omelettes with the eggs on their faces?

[Ankou]

i dont know but i did hear on several news stories that this is the worst weather in 20, 30, 40 and 45 years.

i am sure some journo somewhere is poised with his finger on the '..since records began' cliche button

[jno]

I've just been comparing my garden with photos I took of it last February; the snow was very much deeper then. So, worst weather in one year (almost). But I'll admit some places up north may have had it a bit worse.

[another-view]

I tend to use this which has never let me down so far:
http://i25.tinypic.com/118my4m.jpg

[jno]

Zacsmaster, I find the forecasts for the next couple of days reasonably reliable; those for five days less so. I wouldn't dream of trusting a long-range forecast. But apart from Michael Fish and his hurricane, I haven't any complaints.

[Ankou]

i find looking out of my window first thing in the morning is the clearest sign.

[Gromit]

jno

They got the forecast for winter wrong last year as well. They predicted a warmer winter and it was colder...

Forecast
http://www.metoffice....r2008_9/forecast.html

Actual
http://www.metoffice....e/uk/2009/winter.html

[ludwig]

I really don't know why they bother trying to make these long term forecasts. It's just asking for trouble. You can predict the next few days by looking at what's coming in from the Atlantic, (either heavy rain or light rain) but anything after that is pretty much guesswork. Honestly, who gives a sh1t anyway?. We were only dissappointed that we didn't get a 'barbecue' summer because they told us we were going to get one.

[birdie1971]

The Met Office with Sir John Houghton at the helm (… “the impacts of global warming are such that I have no hesitation in describing it as a 'weapon of mass destruction'”...) and Robert Napier as chairman will continue to get the weather forecasts wrong.

Mr Napier was previously the Chief Executive of the World Wildlife Fund [WWF] (UK) which is well known as being one of the foremost activist groups promoting the idea of Anthropogenic Global Warming [AGW]. Before Napier's arrival at the WWF, the organisation was primarily concerned with wildlife issues and conservation. It is widely acknowledged that Mr Napier put AGW at the top of the agenda during his tenure, using his position to changing its focus to the extent that campaigning on AGW became the WWF's main activity.

[birdie1971]

Continued...

This has lead to the position we find ourselves in now. The Met Office has steered away from being an impartial weather forecaster and is now yet another mouthpiece for the AGW (ahem, Climate Change) lobby. In fact, their website makes quite a big deal about it (note the use of the word 'projections' and not 'predictions'...)*

http://www.metoffice..../science/projections/


The models used to predict what the earth's climate will be like in 10, 20, 30 plus years are the same models used to produce the shorter-range forecasts. It was these models that confidently predicted in Spring 2009 that the summer would be splendidly hot and in September 2009 that the UK would have a mild winter.

* definition of 'projections' - “A projection is a potential future evolution of a quantity or set of quantities, often computed with the help of a model. Projections are distinguished from predictions in order to emphasise that projections involve assumptions concerning eg. future socio-economic and technological developments that may or may not be realised and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty" – Taken from the IPCC document, 'Climate Change 2007' Glossary.49.