The "Asymptomatic" Covid 19 Spreader.

[sevenOP]

Is there any proof that SARS-CoV-2 is being spread by asymptomatic people ?

[LadyCG]

According to the daily bulletin I received yesterday from the CEO, national figures show that 92.14% of those who tested positive for the Delta variant had not had their second dose of the vaccine.

[sevenOP]

"Findings In this decision analytical model assessing multiple scenarios for the infectious period and the proportion of transmission from individuals who never have COVID-19 symptoms, transmission from asymptomatic individuals was estimated to account for more than half of all transmission...Results The baseline assumptions for the model " https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774707

More guesses.

[davebro]

I remember it because it is so unusual & I think I mentioned it on here that a checkout guy at Lidl coughed right into my face early last year.

Can't think of any other instances.

[Sqad]

As things stand, a person who tests positive with any kind of test may or may not have an active infection with live virus, and may or may not be infectious.

That is the best I can do -;)

[Peter Pedant]

yes two bits
delta variant is worse because the viral load is greater and earlier ( and may be longer)

and serial testing, you can show someone becomes contagious 24-48 h before developing signs

( actually NOT carrier - which means they never develop signs)

.

If the epidemic is collapsing ( numbers plunging ) then it deserves some explanation. My view is that the Ro is around 0.9 which is enough to flush it down the bog and that previously the R number was consistently underestimated

[sevenOP]

"Better source bmj
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03141-3"

More 'model' guesses, but thanks for posting bobbinwales,

[davebro]

When/why did they stop quoting the R number - at least it doesn't seem to be in any current BBC reports.

[New Judge]

//When/why did they stop quoting the R number...//

Probably when it began to convey the "wrong" message.

[Sqad]

seven.....you are not going to get laboratory studies to replicate what you want to "prove" and I think that you will have to be satisfied with a term that NJ will be familiar with..." likelier than not."

[bobbinwales]

If you can't prove it's not spread why doubt all the scientific views that it is??
Good question but am wondering where your coming from and going with it 7op

[Sqad]

Who needs an "R" number to tell one that the virus is spreading, when simple statistics are already telling you that?

[sevenOP]

PP : "yes two bits
delta variant is worse because the viral load is greater and earlier ( and may be longer)"

Not relevant to my question.

PP: "and serial testing, you can show someone becomes contagious 24-48 h before developing signs "

Is that 'asymptomatic' signs Peter ?

[bobbinwales]

At least ive learned newjudge has never been on a bus or crowded train or tube at 7am where coughing and sneezing from commuters are not unusual or at 11pm where strangers shouting and forgetting social distancing are often seen. Or in a supermarket at peak times with some bad tempered rude shopper's shouting at you. Maybe not in his restraunt or club I accept

[sevenOP]

"I think that you will have to be satisfied with a term that NJ will be familiar with..." likelier than not."

As satisfied as "" likelier than not Saddam had WMD.""

[ToraToraTora]

ok lets turn it on its head:
sevenop do you really think that 100% of asymptomatic cases are not capable of spreading the virus?

[bobbinwales]

Poor analogy maybe 7op. There was no evidence by independent bodies or qualified people that he had wmd. These are papers written by bmj and others in covid not a faked or misunderstood dossier like the wmd one

[mushroom25]

// As satisfied as "" likelier than not Saddam had WMD."" //

coincidentally, Sheffield Forgemasters are in the news this week - apparently the MOD will be buying them. although it's not said if their portfolio still includes 156m long gun barrels.......

[ToraToraTora]

It's Al-Gebra, you've gotta watch, they have weapons of maths instruction.

[sevenOP]

"These are papers written by bmj and others in covid not a faked or misunderstood dossier like the wmd one"

Did you read the Links that you posted , bobbinwales ?
I answered this @ 14:14 Wed 28th Jul 2021 ZERO proof in them.

"If you can't prove it's not spread why doubt all the scientific views that it is?? " - do you want me to prove a negative ? that would be clever.

[ToraToraTora]

to prove aysmptomatic people can spread the virus we only have to find one case that has. I would say that is statistically certain. Where are you going with this sevenOP?