Has Clegg Peaked to early....

[R1Geezer]

The polls are looking terrific he's even ahead of Labour in some and no one doubts he won the leaders debate. Trouble is there are 2 more debates and no doubt Brown/Cameron will be trying to ambush the new boy. There is still penty of time to screw up. How Clegg must be wish the election was tomorrow. So have the Libdems peaked to early? Can they stay riding this high till election day?

[Davethedog]

I'd love to see him elected and then watch as all his unworkable policies fall apart.

He must be bricking it.

[Gromit]

Cameron and Brown both have the same problem in the next two debates. Both have been saying that a LibDem vote is a wasted vote and they have no chance of getting elected, so if they begin to target him it means they take the tyhreat seriously and that their assertion is not true.

Also, the public do not like the political fighting at PMQs and if they round on Clegg, make a victim, it could help him and reflect badly on them.

Then there is the fact that it looks like one of them will need his help in the event of a hung parliament. It they put the boot in now, they may regret it on May 7th.

I suspect he has not peaked too early. They Tories 12 point lead was always going to close the nearer to election day and it has.

Clegg is more of a problem for the Tories, they have been pushing the 'it is time for a change' without spelling out what they intend to do. The Tories have not been radical enough, and are really not much different from Labour, so the voters do not believe the Tories change message. Then along comes Clegg, and says we are the real change, and the voters get it, they are.

[sherminator]

Excellent answer Gromit.

They def left him alone in first debate so he got to deliver his message completely unchallenged.
He is also a very likable and good public speaker so that helped him as well.

As Gromit says gang up on him now and he gets to play the undedog(which the British always root for) leave him alone and its the same as before. If one of the parties goes for him to much then possibly the other guy will get more air time to impress.

3 way battles are always the most interesting and actually am quite looking forward to the next one!

[olddutch]

"So have the Libdems peaked to early? "

Nobody knows but prob not

"Can they stay riding this high till election day?"

Definitely yes - Lib Dems could drop (esp if Clegg messes up on EU and Euro) - but I am inclined to think that whats going on here - more than anything - is a major protest vote to break the duopoly of the 2 sleazy tweedle dum tweedle dee parties. Voters are tired of the tired parties and the expenses scandal - Lib Dems may or may not be the answer - but out of the Big 3 parties it appears voters are coming over in growing numbers to thinking the Lib Dems may their only realistic shot at any possibility of real change.

Also with TV debates there's the X Factor factor - where its not what they're saying but how they look and say it - some say this alone is what sways around 50% of voters on how to Vote - so on that basis the popularity of nice "pretty boy" Clegg could well continue roll and grow. The power of TV and the media hype that accompanies it could just carry Clegg all the way - but nothings certain.

[rov1200]

John Sargeant of the Ice Dancing fame went on for many weeks. People voted for him because he was the underdog. Clegg is also an underdog but currently has no flaws. He is currently being ridiculed about giving an amnesty to all the 700,000 illegal immigrants. On this one issue alone he is heading for the chop.

[Gromit]

rov1200

You may remember that an amnesty for illegal immigrants was Boris Johnson's idea, before the London Mayoral election. It did him no harm at all as he went on to win the election.

http://www.timesonlin...cs/article3695048.ece

[rov1200]

Gromit I wonder why that is. Maybe its because Boris Johnson is mayor of London home to 3 million legal immigrants and about 2 million illegals.

[Gromit]

rov1200

When did you make up those statistics?

The London School of Economics estimates the number of illegal immigrants in the whole of the UK at 618,000 - within a range of 417,000 to 863,000.

Whatever the number, it did not affect Boris' result, and it will not affect the LibDems either.

[Gromit]

And Boris polled just over 1 million votes.

[Gromit]

I know London is a multi ethnic Capital city, but are you really claiming that of the 5.4million people eligible to vote for the London Mayor, 5 million of them are immigrants?

Shome mishtake shurely?

[rov1200]

Its quite easy Gromit you take a small representative square area of say 1000 x 1000m and count the number of immigrants in that area. Then multiply it up to cover the whole of London to arrive at a very accurate approximation. This technique is used widely in statistics.