Well I Was Waiting For Mikey......

[ToraToraTora]

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Looks like Tory 112 seat majority.Wonder why mikey seems to have gone off Electoral Calculus, he was quoting it more or less daily in 2015!

[jim360]

Well, at least I can entertain myself in the coming months by making different predictions for how utterly screwed the Lib Dem party will be by FPTP...

[ToraToraTora]

.... not to mention UKIP jim!

[jim360]

Indeed, them too. Not a party I've omitted in my previous rants on the subject, mind.

[Ellipsis]

What system would you prefer Jim?

[jim360]

A better one.

[jim360]

Thing is that I don't think anyone can agree on what "better" even means. Nor does anyone agree on whether or not it's important to keep hold of constituencies or not.

What I mean by "better" depends then on that first point, ie do you want single-MP constituencies as a matter of principle? If not, then something vaguely proportional follows as an obvious next step (doesn't have to be *exactly* proportional either, by the way!) If you *do* want single-MP constituencies, then I think a "better" system is anything that gives voters the freedom to express a more "nuanced" preference, something like "I want this guy but I wouldn't mind that guy".

But anyway. I've run down this debate before and not exactly met with much enthusiasm. I'll confine myself to moaning at opportune moments about how the system is basically a great way of locking in the Tory/Labour duopoly. Or, rather, the Tory/who cares monopoly, as Labour are going to get a spanking in June.

[youngmafbog]

Yes, all quiet on the Mickey front. Probably spat out the lump of coal he was chewing on at the news and now cant find it.

We should all be careful of dead certs though. Ask Kinnockio and Hillary about them !

[Ellipsis]

Ironically, Jim, the reason May seems to be calling this election is that a small faction within her tiny majority Government could (or is trying to) wield too much power - power that their size does not really justify. This is the major downside of PR-type systems and, in calling for another election, she is trying to remove that power.

An idea. Here's a list of the biggest countries in the world by population:

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

The UK is #21.

Which country in say the top 30 has a preferable voting system?

[ichkeria]

As you say it makes perfect sense for May to call an election for all the reasons she don't give: namely, ditch the Cameron legacy, slaughter Labour and get a more comfortable majority even if it means losing some seats to the Lib Dems, and above all avoid the next two years of Brexit wrangling and likely fudge and compromise sullying the run up to a 2020 election instead.
Not sure which country has the best young system there but Bangladesh polling stations definitely more crowded than Russian by that list :-)

[Mamyalynne]

There is a possibility that Mikey has gone out - to work or elsewhere since he last commented on a news thread of course.

[Goofy]

Double the size of the constituencies and elect the first 2 past the post.

[Old_Geezer]

No party is more screwed than any other. But were it a fair system all should be totally screwed as their very existence is a detraction for the elected official performing their duty to represent the views of those they are supposed to be representing.

[Old_Geezer]

Back to the subject, there is no real reason for another GE now. Tories presently have a majority and they will afterwards too. They may grab a very small number of Liberal seats but not so much as makes any real odds, and the louder Liberal critics will still exist to make noise. They're unlikely to make much headway against the SNP because they are elected due to national pride and not what's best for Britain. They could well pick up Labour seats due to Labour disarray and Remainer sympathies still being expressed, but the safe seats will remain so it's questionable how many more would fall. All in all this is a distraction that should result in little real change of power.

[Khandro]

//What system would you prefer..?//

Definitely not the Turkish one.

[ichkeria]

"They may grab a very small number of Liberal seats "

Unlikely I'd have thought (there are only 9 to grab anyway).
They are more likely to lose a few to the Lib Dems but do damage in Tory Labour marginals. If Labour's vote collapses in traditional areas who knows what might happen.
It makes perfect politcal sense for the Tories to so this - it is risky to a degree, but they obviously feel the risks are not sufficiently gret compared to the risk of ploughing on through the Brexit negotiations to a 2020 election

[Ellipsis]

A Nightmare on AnswerBank Street ...

52% Brexit vote split between Tory, Labour and UKIP - Lib Dems pick up the 48% Remain vote, sweep to power and cancel Brexit!

[mikey4444]

TTT...make your mind up.....you said I was wrong to quote EC, and now you are doing the same !

It was proved 2 years ago, that some people lie to Pollsters, especially the ones that say that they aren't going to vote Tory.

But EC did have it correct about the SNP, UKIP and the Libdems.

[DTCwordfan]

I got it right......as my bank account benefited from that bet placed in Exeter. I'll have to give this one some thought, but my thinking is a majority around 20-25 seats.

[mikey4444]

DTC....I would waste your money if I were you. Both you and I thought that there was going to be a narrow victory for the LEAVE campaign last June, and we were wrong then !

[Togo]

//Both you and I thought that there was going to be a narrow victory for the LEAVE campaign last June, and we were wrong then ! //

You sound a little confused Mikey. The Leave campaign was successful .......:))