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Another Reason To Make Sure There Is A Clear Tory Majority?
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So Mr Salmond is threatening to obstruct the whole UK! Remember peeps, vote Labour and Nelson Mansalmond will be calling the shots, if that isn't a horrifying proposition then I don't know what is!
So Mr Salmond is threatening to obstruct the whole UK! Remember peeps, vote Labour and Nelson Mansalmond will be calling the shots, if that isn't a horrifying proposition then I don't know what is!
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I actually find this very distasteful and smacks of sore looser 'syndrome'
Milliband is going to be potentially stuck between a rock and a hard place. If he gets into bed with Salmond (even in a vote by vote basis) Salmond will extract no end of deals that will see the rest of the UK fund Scotland. If that does happen then labour will never win another election. If Milliband does not get into bed with him labour may find it very hard to pass important things like budgets.
This is not a good place to be for any of us living in the UK outside of Scotland, be we Tory, UKIP, liberal, labour or whatever.
Milliband is going to be potentially stuck between a rock and a hard place. If he gets into bed with Salmond (even in a vote by vote basis) Salmond will extract no end of deals that will see the rest of the UK fund Scotland. If that does happen then labour will never win another election. If Milliband does not get into bed with him labour may find it very hard to pass important things like budgets.
This is not a good place to be for any of us living in the UK outside of Scotland, be we Tory, UKIP, liberal, labour or whatever.
What? That is just awful analysis. Quite apart from the obvious "Well the Tories don't need to care about Scotland anyway" message implicit in assessing Tory chances, there's also the simple numerical fact that it's just nonsensical. If everyone in England voted Labour to keep the SNP out it would work just as well as everyone voting Tory* (at least at keeping the SNP out).
The Tory's chances of winning a majority are not improved directly by the SNP wiping Labour out in Scotland. Only Labour's chances of winning one are, since there is potentially the difference between 300 seats and 330 or so. For Conservatives the relative performance of the SNP is effectively the difference between 300 seats and 300 -- exactly no change.
If you want in England to reach an agreement to keep the SNP out then voters in England need to come to a consensus on which out of Labour and the Tories they would prefer to be in charge in the next five years, safe in the knowledge that once they had reached said agreement then either would work equally well. Of course, there is no chance of such an agreement, so instead the sensible thing to do is for each party to try and sell itself. This "vote SNP, get Tory" crap essentially amounts to an admission either that a party's strongest selling point is that it isn't "the other lot", or that the voting system is so broken that there is no longer any point in voting for what you want, and instead the trick is to not vote for what you don't want.
The Tory's chances of winning a majority are not improved directly by the SNP wiping Labour out in Scotland. Only Labour's chances of winning one are, since there is potentially the difference between 300 seats and 330 or so. For Conservatives the relative performance of the SNP is effectively the difference between 300 seats and 300 -- exactly no change.
If you want in England to reach an agreement to keep the SNP out then voters in England need to come to a consensus on which out of Labour and the Tories they would prefer to be in charge in the next five years, safe in the knowledge that once they had reached said agreement then either would work equally well. Of course, there is no chance of such an agreement, so instead the sensible thing to do is for each party to try and sell itself. This "vote SNP, get Tory" crap essentially amounts to an admission either that a party's strongest selling point is that it isn't "the other lot", or that the voting system is so broken that there is no longer any point in voting for what you want, and instead the trick is to not vote for what you don't want.
ymb -- I would be surprised if there ended up being a Labour majority. What I am saying is that for England to decide to deliver a Labour majority would be just as effective in stopping the SNP from having any say as for England to decide to return a Tory majority.
Indeed, if people in the Tory party really want the SNP to lose, then how's this for a message? You should be working as hard as you can to persuade people in Scotland to vote Labour. That would squeeze the SNP out of relevance, and in the meantime you can get on with ensuring that English voters vote for the Tories, like the sensible chaps they obviously are.
Indeed, if people in the Tory party really want the SNP to lose, then how's this for a message? You should be working as hard as you can to persuade people in Scotland to vote Labour. That would squeeze the SNP out of relevance, and in the meantime you can get on with ensuring that English voters vote for the Tories, like the sensible chaps they obviously are.
// Interesting that going into an election, the whole Tory campaign is to scaremonger about what might happen if we vote for Labour than defend their record over these glorious 5 years in office. //
It's not really that interesting. In fact, as the standard election strategy of every single incumbent government since governments were invented, it's pretty boring.
It's not really that interesting. In fact, as the standard election strategy of every single incumbent government since governments were invented, it's pretty boring.
Gromit, //Interesting that going into an election, the whole Tory campaign is to scaremonger about what might happen if we vote for Labour than defend their record over these glorious 5 years in office. //
I've been reading and watching the news and as far as I can tell that isn't the whole of the Tory campaign. I think you must be exaggerating. ;o)
I've been reading and watching the news and as far as I can tell that isn't the whole of the Tory campaign. I think you must be exaggerating. ;o)
Funny attitude really. Listening to the Scottish Nationalists one could be forgiven for thinking they missed the results of the referendum. It’s almost as though they believe that any disasters the SNP, given the opportunity, may bring upon this country will not affect the Scots along with the rest of us.
It's not enough for people down south to keep bleating that "You lost the referendum" without also considering the whole narrative.
It started, really, with that poll that gave the "Yes" vote a one or two point lead. And then Westminster panicked, and rushed off up north to try and bribe the Scots into staying. This really was not necessary, and it was enough to just let the poll speak for itself and remind all the "no" voters (that were always going to be a majority really) to actually turn up and vote.
But what Cameron and Miliband did was to throw all sorts of promises up north, almost literally begging the Scots to stay. This has been a complete disaster, for several reasons.
In the first place, the promises made can't be kept without the consent of Parliament, and inevitably (and rightly) they have been watered down somewhat after proper consultation. But the point is that the promises won't be kept, and politically this is a disaster for the Conservatives, who were already struggling in Scotland, and Labour, who have found themselves siding with the Conservatives. No matter that the promises had to go through consultation. No matter that Labour were siding with the Conservatives only in wanting to preserve the Union. The damage has been done.
Secondly, that the promises were made at all has allowed the SNP to claim that the referendum was only lost because Westminster lied, because of those promises. Not only has this allowed the SNP to sneer at the promises, it also provides a perfect excuse for defeat. This is almost certainly not true, but the narrative is there, and it's a claim that cannot really be disproven. No doubt some people ended up voting no on the assumption of greater powers -- but a vast majority will have done so solely on the principle of "Better Together". It doesn't matter. Once again, Westminster has made a promise that has a) been broken (although it shouldn't have been made) and b) appears responsible for the result (though it isn't really).
With this alone the SNP can paint it as a Pyrrhic victory. And the other fact is that SNP membership has skyrocketed since the result, and support for Independence remains at least as high as it did before, if not slightly higher (A recent poll suggests that support has dipped somewhat, but essentially it remains neck-and-neck between Yes and No camps at about 45% each).
The knock-on effect is that Labour support in Scotland has plummeted, SNP support has grown, and the question hasn't been settled. Really, the following thing needed to happen to shut the SNP up, and they didn't: Ed Miliband needed to stay the hell out of it.
The sad thing is that Cameron had got his approach right earlier. An impassioned speech to the Scots that said "Yes, you can manage on your own, but let's stay together instead." Perfect tone, really. None of this patronising doom-mongering. No pathetic attempts at bribery that he wouldn't be able to follow up on. If he'd stayed there all would have been well. Alas, he didn't.
As a final point, the vagaries of First Past the Post now play right into the SNP's hands in spectacular fashion. It won't take much of a swing in several seats for the SNP to build up a huge presence in Parliament (I'll try to work it out for this evening). Not only are the SNP shouting more than ever before, but their voice will have a real presence. Particularly devastating for Labour and the Lib Dems, of course, but the knock-on effect will hit everyone too.
Basically, the whole thing has been badly handled since that poll came out. It needn't have been, really. But the results have meant that the independence question is as far from being settled as ever. Who cares about the result? In politics, it's about the narrative. Everyone south of the border seems to be missing that; this will come back to bite them very badly soon.
It started, really, with that poll that gave the "Yes" vote a one or two point lead. And then Westminster panicked, and rushed off up north to try and bribe the Scots into staying. This really was not necessary, and it was enough to just let the poll speak for itself and remind all the "no" voters (that were always going to be a majority really) to actually turn up and vote.
But what Cameron and Miliband did was to throw all sorts of promises up north, almost literally begging the Scots to stay. This has been a complete disaster, for several reasons.
In the first place, the promises made can't be kept without the consent of Parliament, and inevitably (and rightly) they have been watered down somewhat after proper consultation. But the point is that the promises won't be kept, and politically this is a disaster for the Conservatives, who were already struggling in Scotland, and Labour, who have found themselves siding with the Conservatives. No matter that the promises had to go through consultation. No matter that Labour were siding with the Conservatives only in wanting to preserve the Union. The damage has been done.
Secondly, that the promises were made at all has allowed the SNP to claim that the referendum was only lost because Westminster lied, because of those promises. Not only has this allowed the SNP to sneer at the promises, it also provides a perfect excuse for defeat. This is almost certainly not true, but the narrative is there, and it's a claim that cannot really be disproven. No doubt some people ended up voting no on the assumption of greater powers -- but a vast majority will have done so solely on the principle of "Better Together". It doesn't matter. Once again, Westminster has made a promise that has a) been broken (although it shouldn't have been made) and b) appears responsible for the result (though it isn't really).
With this alone the SNP can paint it as a Pyrrhic victory. And the other fact is that SNP membership has skyrocketed since the result, and support for Independence remains at least as high as it did before, if not slightly higher (A recent poll suggests that support has dipped somewhat, but essentially it remains neck-and-neck between Yes and No camps at about 45% each).
The knock-on effect is that Labour support in Scotland has plummeted, SNP support has grown, and the question hasn't been settled. Really, the following thing needed to happen to shut the SNP up, and they didn't: Ed Miliband needed to stay the hell out of it.
The sad thing is that Cameron had got his approach right earlier. An impassioned speech to the Scots that said "Yes, you can manage on your own, but let's stay together instead." Perfect tone, really. None of this patronising doom-mongering. No pathetic attempts at bribery that he wouldn't be able to follow up on. If he'd stayed there all would have been well. Alas, he didn't.
As a final point, the vagaries of First Past the Post now play right into the SNP's hands in spectacular fashion. It won't take much of a swing in several seats for the SNP to build up a huge presence in Parliament (I'll try to work it out for this evening). Not only are the SNP shouting more than ever before, but their voice will have a real presence. Particularly devastating for Labour and the Lib Dems, of course, but the knock-on effect will hit everyone too.
Basically, the whole thing has been badly handled since that poll came out. It needn't have been, really. But the results have meant that the independence question is as far from being settled as ever. Who cares about the result? In politics, it's about the narrative. Everyone south of the border seems to be missing that; this will come back to bite them very badly soon.
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