New Polls, For Sqad And Others !

[mikey4444]

Sorry I am a bit late with these but I have been waiting for the Electoral Calculus site to be updated ::

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

According to this reliable site, the Labour lead has grown from 28 on June 1st, to 48 on June 29th.

http://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/

YouGov continues to show the Labour lead waxing and waning but the current 7 point lead is the highest its been for ages. Please also note that support for UKIP is slipping, which is to be expected I suppose as they haven't been much in the news of late.

Usual caveats apply to these Polls of course but it interesting to see that none show the Tories in the lead. If dave is going to have any chance of winning next May, he really must start getting ahead and staying ahead soon.

[mikey4444]

Thanks to anneasquith and kvalidir I thought that I had done something along the lines of farting in chapel earlier this morning !

( have I told you its nice to have you back kvalidir ! )

TTT.....nobody would give you 100/1. Here are the current odds :::

http://odds.bestbetting.com/politics/general-election/winning-party/

I am still waiting for someone to suggest why dave can't seem to get ahead in any of these Polls ! Unpopular Ed x 2...an open goal perhaps but still the Tories are lagging behind !

[ToraToraTora]

yes but you are not a bookie you are 100% certain of the outcoome so it'll be and easy win for you! Anyway these are the polls the BBC are reporting and there seems to be a huge variance.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27330849
Not sure I'd stick my neck out at this stage but closer to the election the public tend to get a touch of realism I think we are going to end up with a hung parliament again. So maybe Dave will lend Ed his gopher eh? and you can then sit back and enjoy a new Lib/Lab pact!

[anotheoldgit]

kvalidir

/// If people aren't interested in the one thing that will definitely affect them then they should be :) ///

One can be interested in politics, but they don't all spend their time looking into a crystal ball, so as to see what may or may not be the true outcome of the forthcoming elections.

[mikey4444]

I do indeed remember 1992 TTT !

Major was elected and then got kicked out in 1997 by a massive landslide victory for Labour. The Tories were in opposition for 13 years until 2010, losing 2 more consecutive Elections in 2001 and 2005. During those 13 years they wasted time by electing 3 consecutive Leaders, all of them useless ::

http://www.ukpolitical.info/1997.htm

In fact, it could be said that Kinnock helped assure the massive win for Blair, by wearing down the Conservative majority in 1992.

Still waiting for that answer !

[Sqad]

mikey....let's look at the situation..........in simple terms.

BOTH Dave and ED need to make bigger inroads before the election.

It is THAT simple if either are going to form a Government.

If the Tories and Labour knew why this was necessary, it would be quickly remedied.

[ToraToraTora]

Kinnochio was ahead by a similar amount the day before the election in 1992 that's the point. What answer are you still waiting for?

[Sqad]

\\\\Still waiting for that answer !\\\\

I have answered it time and time again and again in my answer above.

Both Labour and Tories have no idea as to why they are not making inroads.

[naomi24]

But sqad, you're not giving the answer that Mikey wants to hear. ;o)

[kvalidir]

Thanks Mikey :)

That's true enough AOG- although it does really shock and surprise me the number of people not interested in politics. You and I rarely agree about things but I'd much rather have that in a person than someone who benignly floats along waiting for life to 'happen to them'.

[Sqad]

naomi......I know! I know!.

[mikey4444]

I am far from certain of a Labour win in 2015 TTT, but all information available to us now seems to show that is more likely than not. Your link just confirms my point...very little sign of the Tories being more popular than Labour. Not certain but likely, as I have said on many previous posts over the last few months. It ain't over until the fat lady sings, as our Colonial cousins amusingly say !

Actually I am perfectly happy to agree with you on your last paragraph. I also think that it is possible that we would would end up with a logjam of a hung Parliament, although I am uncertain what role the Libs would be able to play.

Its not likely that Cleggie will stay with dave, as he has been humiliated over the last 4 years and will not want a repeat. Anyway, I am positive that most of us can agree that the Libs will slip into bed with whoever has the greater chance of giving them some kind of role in a future Government. After all, its their only chance of having any influence whatsoever at Westminster ! At the moment it looks increasingly possible that the Libs will be back in the same situation that they spent most of the post war years in...political nonentities, reduced to have a few MPs in places where people like to roll their arrrrs !

[mikey4444]

Thanks Sqad. But all things being equal, why are the Tories not ahead in the Polls ! Lots of ridicule is heaped on Polling companies by many here on AB. Lots of people think that they are unreliable and even made up. But if they are not accurate, why are they inaccurate in one direction only ?

I repeat...dave has an open goal in the two Eds. His own ministers are not doing that badly...I thought that May made a good job of her appearance this week at the dispatch box concerning the much needed enquiry into child abuse. She would appear to have the best chance of succeeding dave as the next Leader of the Party.

[grumpy01]

I think Neil Kinnock thought he had it won in 1992 and held his celebration party the night before instead of the night after.I think also that Labour won in 1997 because Tony Blair was a relatively new face and moved away from the left to the more centre ground which appealed more to voters especially the "floating" ones.Also can't dispute poll figures but to me and I am sure many others on here and elsewhere Ed Milliband has a long way to go to convince us he is a Prime Minister in waiting.

[mikey4444]

kvalidir is completely right here. Politics ARE important, as people lives can be affected in all areas. I appreciate that not everybody will have the keen interest that I have for the subject, but politics matter, in a big way.

[Sqad]

Mike .......I "luv yer" but i give in.

[mikey4444]

grumpy01...I agree with most of what you say but lets not forget the real reason that Labour won in 1997....the British public were utterly fed up with the Tories, and especially John Major. Blair helped but Major won the election for Labour in 1997...he was the best asset that Labour could have wished for.

[mikey4444]

Love to you too sqad !

Aforesaid Yorkshire Wolfhound has been waiting with his lead in his mouth since 09:30 this morning, so Usk Reservoir ....here I come !

[New Judge]

"According to this reliable site, the Labour lead has grown from 28 on June 1st, to 48 on June 29th."

I don't quite understand, Mikey. I'm obviously missing something. As far as I can see the figures from your link are these:

Jun 1st Con 33% Lab 36%
Jun 29th Con 33% Lab 37%

Could you explain please.

[mikey4444]

Sorry NJ...the Electoral Calculus site has overwritten the previous page for
Sunday 01-06-2014. The figures then were ::

Con .....257
Lab ......339
LIB.........18
UKIP.......0
Nat.........17
Min.........19
Thus giving an over all majority of 28. This month, as from Sunday 29th June, the overall Labour majority is 48. Hope that is now clear. Pays to print these EC pages out it would seem !

[youngmafbog]

Yawn. More polls.

All are a waste of time until we get a lot nearer anx even then az kinnokio found out things just dont work out.