Labour 12 Point Lead, Ukip At Its Most Popular Ever...

[Gromit]

... Is now the time for the Conservatives to ditch Cameron?

// Labour has forged a 12-point lead over the Conservatives for the first time in almost a decade, according to a Guardian/ICM poll.

Ed Miliband's party now stands at 41% of the vote, up three points on ICM's January figure, and the Tories are on just 29%, having slipped back four from 33% last month. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have sunk two points, to 13%, whereas Ukip has inched up three to 9% – setting a new record for Nigel Farage's anti-European outfit in the Guardian/ICM series.

The Labour lead is the biggest – and the Conservative vote-share the smallest – in the polling series since May 2003, during the brief political bounce for Tony Blair which came between the felling of Saddam Hussein's statue in Baghdad and first stirrings of civil war in Iraq and arguments about dodgy dossiers.

With his party plumbing the sort of depths associated with the second half of the John Major era, David Cameron will be particularly dismayed about the continuing surge in Ukip support. //

[ichkeria]

I don't agree at all that Cameron has got "more left wing" since coming to office. He's socially a lot more liberal than many of his MPs who are almost certainly out of touch with most of the electorate. The Tories are doing badly in the polls mainly because of the economy, not because the public don't think he's right wing enough.

Cameron knows very well that large numbers of his Parliamentary party are out of step with the public which is why he is, wisely, not playing up to those MPs. But aside from the economy he has other problems: one is that the party is so divided - on gay marriage and on Europe. Ironically they are comparatively united on the economy. And his high-profile conflicts with them makes the Tories look rather shambolic.
Tony Blair did well out of defying his party - for a while. But Cameron has another big problem. Whereas there was nowhere plausible for disaffected Labour MPs to turn to during the years of New Labour Cameron nowadays is haunted by presence of UKIP, one reason why he's embarked on this possibly ill-fated European crusade, which already looks as though it's not having the effect he hoped for.

[ludwig]

// Both brothers knew full well how the Labour Party electoral system worked //

They must have done, having seen Gordon Brown go through the process.

[Quizmonster]

Ludwig, if there's only one contender for an internal elected post, guess who wins.
The Miliband brothers have been involved with Labour politics virtually from birth, so - as I said and you repeat - "Both brothers knew full well how the Labour Party electoral system worked." Again I ask you - since it seems that Em has no answer for us - what evidence is there that one stabbed the other in the back? Both entered...one of them won.
Cameron became leader of the Tories after a multi-candidate process, so did he stab Davies, Fox, Rifkind et al in the back just because he won? (Actually, we all know how he won; namely by impressing the shire ladies with a noteless speech! Not so very different from impressing the unions, really, is it?)

[emmie]

the difference is that it was largely because of the union vote and union money that got Ed elected. The Party whichever report you read appeared to have favoured David.

[Quizmonster]

Ah, there you are!
No one has ever disputed the involvement of the unions in electing this - and previous - leadership candidates in the Labour Party...after all, they created the Labour Party!
Are you still intent on keeping to yourself the 'evidence' that Ed Miliband stabbed his brother, David, in the back? Are you still going to wheel the claim out at regular intervals without ever telling us what that evidence actually IS?
Just saying "the unions were involved" is not evidence of any such action, is it?

[emmie]

have it your way, it's tiring to keep on going over the same ground.

[Quizmonster]

But it's only you who is going over the same ground. I have been asking you throughout this thread what evidence of 'stabbing' you possess and you have provided no answer. It's now perfectly plain, therefore, that you have no such evidence whatsoever. I trust you will remember that when next you decide to refer to this phantom knife-in-the-back.

[jake-the-peg]

Sounds as if "stabbing in the back" refers to standing against a brother who was more favoured by Tory supporters.

Must be a Labour party regulation that passed me by :c)

[jake-the-peg]

Incidently Eastleigh's looking close

CON 34%(-5), LAB 19%(+9), LDEM 31%(-16), UKIP 13%(+9).

[ludwig]

// Ludwig, if there's only one contender for an internal elected post, guess who wins. //

Don't tell me, I know this... - Is it Gordon Brown?

[Quizmonster]

You goddit!

[ludwig]

..whatever, it must be a good system. The single contender proved hugely successful and popular, both within his own party and the electorate.

[emmie]

David M was favoured by Blair, and he most definitely isn't a tory. still the country will love Ed when PM, until he fecks everything up, just the same way that Cameron appears to be doing, lose lose.

[Quizmonster]

Do you mean as "hugely successful and popular" as the Tories are now? They were (sort of) 'elected', too, you know!

[jake-the-peg]

Would that be like when Churchill resigned and told the Queen to appoint Anthony Eden?

[emmie]

ur no, if you voted Tory you didn't get a Tory government, because they didn't get enough votes, so we got limp dem Clegg along for the ride, an unhappy marriage if ever there was one.

[ludwig]

// Do you mean as "hugely successful and popular" as the Tories are now? //

No, not quite. I think there are some people in his own government who still like Cameron.

[Quizmonster]

We all seem to be getting at cross-purposes here with our responses! My 15.46 response was to Ludwig's 1541 one.

[ichkeria]

Whatever one thinks of Gordon Brown it was not his doing that no-one stood against him for the Labour leadership. Of course he was expecting a "clear run" but the fact that he got one was because no one was willing to stand.

[emmie]

i suspect that some like Cameron for the same reason that some like Miliband, that it serves them to do so, for now.