Do You Agree That Uk Will Suffer More Than Other Single Eu State, If No Trade Deal On Brexit As Each Eu States Do Not Have Uk As Its Largest Export Market.

[willbewhatiwill]

About 50% of UK exports goes to the EU (27 other states), hence UK will suffer more than other single EU state, if no trade deal on Brexit.

[jim360]

I don't think we can know who will be better or worse off, although a lot of arguments that the EU depends on the UK more than vice versa seem to take percentages more seriously than absolute values.

But I'd rather gloss over that because honestly I'm not sure it's the most important question. I suspect that the balance of trade was not uppermost in most Leave voters' minds anyway, so demonstrating that we do indeed stand to lose out might not affect them much if the longer-term aims (of, say, loss of ECJ influence etc), are still achieved. From my own point of view I'd be more concerned about the net change anyway. If the UK benefits, but the EU loses out at a greater scale, then it seems a monumentally selfish act on our part; nor would I wish to see the EU better off in such a way that the UK is crippled as a result.

Hopefully, it will be possible to find a way to make both the UK and EU better off, something I hope was the aim of Brexit all along.

[Togo]

Yes Jim, at least a balanced and open minded consideration from, I assume, a EU supporter. The problems arise when the zealous remainers show no compunction regarding wishing and trying to manipulate the exact opposite. They continuously strive to undermine the UK position and not so secretly hope to see Britain fail. Impossible to comprehend the mindset for me, perhaps they are indeed the 5th column, who's only aim, ever was, the downfall of Britain. Maybe time to remind them that the EU is still there and would no doubt welcome them. Perhaps we would have a little more room to bring in the people who admire Britain.

[jason.p]

Spot on Togo.
To me, all this speculation about who wins or loses financially is just that. Speculation. In truth nobody knows, and all these figures and percentages can be massaged to say whatever you like. The fundamental issue for me is the creeping federalisation of the EU, and our consequent loss of sovereignty.

[Garaman]

I am afraid some folk are like that, Togo. There are zealous Remainers who seem to want the UK to fail so as to prove a point. I have no doubt too that had we voted to remain, there would have been zealous Leavers who would have wanted us to fair badly in the EU. But most of us who wanted to remain accept the result and hope it was the right one. As Jason points out, there is much speculation about the effect on trade, and that is all it is, though some who have no experience in such matters seem to think they actually know, which is ridiculous.

[willbewhatiwill]

It is certain without any speculation, the following two considerations(among many others):

(1) At most, 5% of Germany's & 5% of France's exports is to UK, while around 45% of UK exports is to the EU. France or Germany having less than 5% of each of their exports with increased tariffs as a result of Brexit, is LESS important than losing the benefits they enjoy within the EU, by being disharmonious with amongst EU member states.

(2) At least a third of parts for Airbus (like wings, engine, landing gear, R&D) are made in UK. Surely on Brexit, without a suitable trade deals - will result in much reduced UK manufacture of such aircraft parts for final assembly of Airbus planes in France.

[vulcan42]

\\ (2) At least a third of parts for Airbus (like wings, engine, landing gear, R&D) are made in UK. Surely on Brexit, without a suitable trade deals - will result in much reduced UK manufacture of such aircraft parts for final assembly of Airbus planes in France.//
This proves you do not know what you are talking about.

[willbewhatiwill]

vulcan42,
All Airbus wings are manufactured in factories in UK (mainly in Wales) and many jet engines for Airbus have Rolls Royce jet engines (mainly manufactured in Derby). These two components alone, cost more than a third of the price of Airbus planes.

Don't you know all that? It is not me that do not know.

[Togo]

There you go then......without us Airbus is grounded. No deal means no more wings and engines, or back up spares and repairs. They could of course fit Pratt and Whitney engines........ oh hang on they're American aren't they? Does the EU have a trade deal with US? Nope.

[New Judge]

Now that I've had a lie down I'll only try once more then I'm out:

"Should UK not have a trade deal in financial services with the EU after Brexit, a large chunk of UK's £49bn pa exports in services with the EU will be at risk of losing out."

What evidence is there for that? Before you answer bear in mind that there is not (and is never likely to be) a "Single Market" for financial services in Europe.

I wasn't going to mention it but since you keep raising it incessantly, your argument about the value of individual nations' exports to the UK vs the UK's exports to the EU is specious. It may well be that the each nation's exports to the UK make up a small percentage of their total but the total EU exports to the UK is substantial. Any deal (or no deal) will effect all EU nations equally and each will be keen to see their trade continue as smoothly as possible. It will not be a case that (say) Germany cannot be bothered with a deal because it effects only 5% of its exports.

Anyway, as I said, all a bit irrelevant to me. I'm not particularly interested how great an economic effect Brexit has on the UK (though I happen to believe in the long term it will be enormously beneficial). I'm quite prepared to endure some short term chaos and pain to rid the UK of the pernicious influence of the EU, its obnoxious leaders and army of apparatchiks.

[Kromovaracun]

//No deal means no more wings and engines, or back up spares and repairs.//

No it doesn't, it means that commerce taking place on worse terms.

The point isn't (and never has been) whether trade takes place at all, it's the terms under which it does. If 5% ish of the EU's trade takes place on worse terms - it's a pain, but they can easily shoulder it. If 45% ish of our trade suddenly takes place on worse terms, that is a far nastier problem to deal with.

[Kromovaracun]

//Anyway, as I said, all a bit irrelevant to me. I'm not particularly interested how great an economic effect Brexit has on the UK//

The question is about economics though, and has even been posted in B&F.

[vulcan42]

wilbewhatiwill, Togo has written more or less my answer. I know what parts are manufactured in the UK, do you think the EU could go out and buy a few engines to keep the production line going? who supplies them if Rolls Royce don't? even if Pratt and Witney agreed to supply engines, which I doubt, they could not supply quickly. In the meantime the thousands of EU workers sit and twiddle their thumbs waiting for the engines to arrive. Yeah, that's going to happen.

[Togo]

We are already in a position to "replace" any trade losses with the rest of the World, who are already beating a path to our door to do deals. Deals that are free of the red tape and convoluted regulations beloved of bureaurcrats and meddling office boys on a gravy train that rewards hegemony and navel gazing. We have nothing to fear but fear itself. Fear that is being fed and watered by the anti British lobby as we try to thrash out the wheat from the chaff.

[willbewhatiwill]

UK will be able to use what's called the banking passport system unless Britain signs up to all the rules of the single market. [bbc.co.uk/news/business, 2016]

UK and France are the only military powers of note in Europe, hence collaboration of UK and France are always a good idea within the umbrella of NATO. It will be scaremongering to say such military collaboration require a single EU defence force.

[willbewhatiwill]

Togo, vulcan42,

Multinationals, by definition, can relocate to another country that are more conducive to their commercial operations - so aircraft wing and jet engine multinational manufacturers can relocate to a country that has low import tariffs.

[willbewhatiwill]

New judge,

I meant - UK NOT will be able to use what's called the banking passport system unless Britain signs up to all the rules of the single market. [bbc.co.uk/news/business, 2016]

UK and France are the only military powers of note in Europe, hence collaboration of UK and France are always a good idea within the umbrella of NATO. It will be scaremongering to say such military collaboration require a single EU defence force.

[Togo]

Errr we will be setting our own import/export tariffs, free of the EU pyramid scheme, and its costs designed to maintain an army of worthless pen pushers. We will set them low enough to attract even more businesses to locate here just as we always did pre-EU control. When was the military introduced into the thread, must have missed it. Germany is the country pushing for a EU "defence force" calling it policing or some such misleading name. Oohhh Germany fancies a big army again, beware. No thanks, been there got the t shirt.

[willbewhatiwill]

Togo said, "We will be setting our own import/export tariffs, free of the EU pyramid scheme"

What? - with export tariffs to the EU for drugs, components, etc between 9.6% tariffs (for cars) to around 40% tariffs (for agricultural produce)?? To subsidise/compensate all that would require at least 20% (i.e. £160bn pa)of UK intake of taxes pa .

[Togo]

You are basing all your negative projections on your, wishful thinking that, Britain must fail mindset. If the EU does not wish to trade or cooperate, then we will do likewise. We have no need to be in thrall of an organisation that was rotten to the core at inception and is ever more so. Twist in the wind if you must, or if you get a sort of self pitying comfort from your hand wringing carry on. But please don't expect the rest of us to join you, we are looking forward with confidence and resolution to make this a great opportunity to regain our sovereignty and World position without the EU hangers on. Our great grandchildren deserve no less.

[vulcan42]

\\ aircraft wing and jet engine multinational manufacturers can relocate to a country that has low import tariffs. //
Who are these multinational manufacturers?