Electoralcalculus Updated

[mikey4444]

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

They don't show the previous update, so here it it ::

CON....263........now.....251
LAB.....302........now.....316
LIB......16..........now.....19
UKIP.....0...........now.....0
NAT......50.........now.....45
MIN......19..........now.....19

So the difference in predicted seats for May 205 are CON = 12 less, LAB = 14 more, and NAT 5 less. So, still no seats predicted for UKIP.

LAB now has a 42% of an over all majority, up from 34%, and CON now has a 8% chance, down from 12%. Bear in mind that was based on Polls 07/11 to 28/11, so would include the latest UKIP win in Rochester.

I will update again at the end of December.

[ToraToraTora]

So who is Ed going to do a deal with?

[BlackadderV]

Who on earth are the MIN?

[Svejk]

Boy are you in for a shock come May.

[BlackadderV]

If the Libs manage to get 16 seats, let alone the 19 your 'poll' predicts, I shall personally bare my buttocks in Selfridge's window.

[mikey4444]

I think its our Northern Ireland citizens Blackadder !

TTT...your guess is as good as mine ! I can't see that it could ever be UKIP, even if they had any seats. I would have thought that the SNP and Plaid Cymru would be his first call. The SNP have said that they won't do a deal the Tories, and the Welsh Nats already work with Labour in the Assembly. Also it would appear that the Libs are not quite as dead in the water as lots of us, including me had thought, so I suppose there is an opportunity there.

Next May is going to be the most interesting election in my life time, that's for sure !

[BlackadderV]

Why differentiate between NI and the Scottish/Welsh nationalists?

[ToraToraTora]

I doubt a deal with the SNP is on, those seats will have largely been taken from Labour because of their stance in the referendum, thus those MPs will risk the wrath of their constituents if they get into bed with Labour.

[Gromit]

Zzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzz

All meaningless.

You're like a stuck 78rpm.

[janbee]

I think we're in for a shock and real upset in May. Never believe polls.

[mikey4444]

Blackadder ( 17:12),,,,Can you get a friend to take a pic please !

[anotheoldgit]

/// You're like a stuck 78rpm ///

For once I couldn't agree more with Gromit

[youngmafbog]

What a strange 'poll'.

With Gromit too on this one, I think things are in such flux that who knows what will happen next May.

[mikey4444]

Just reporting the Polls guys...shooting the messenger again, rather than debate the issues perhaps ?

[-Talbot-]

Ignore them, mikey I'll look forward to the end of December.

[mikey4444]

What I can't understand is that all the Polls are telling roughly the same story. They all agree that Labour is just ahead, and that UKIP won't get many, if any seats, and that we are looking at some kind of coalition next May. In fact, we may be looking at coalitions at Westminster for many years to come. After all, that is how most of Europe have been ruled since the end of the War.

And yet some peoples "Intuition" is telling them the exact opposite. Why is this "intuition" not reflected in any of the Polls ? 100,000's of people are being polled every week in Britain but none of them are telling the Pollsters that they will vote UKIP in enough numbers to make a breakthrough next May.

A Party can be as popular as it likes but its not popularity that wins elections, its seats in Westminster. UKIP might come second in dozens of seats but who cares, or remembers who came second ? Those that come second and third are losers in our first-past-the-post system, and that is why the Liberals have been campaigning for change for as many years as I can remember.

UKIP are in the same position as the Liberals were years ago. The only reason that the Liberals now have over 50 seats in Westminster is that they combined with the SDP nearly 30 years ago.

If Farage can persuade enough Tories to breakaway from the Party, he might be able to achieve something along the lines of what the SDP/LIB merger managed. Maybe he will in the future but I can't see its happening in the 4/5 months.

[ToraToraTora]

I'm looking forward to June when mikey reports the first EC poll for the 2020 election, then we can have a full 5 years of the 78!

[Svejk]

Its been proved that 60% of people polled in these 'independent' surveys read The Guardian.
Not only do more people read The Beano, it's a fact they glean more intelligent comment in the latter.

[jackthehat]

///I will update again at the end of December///

Well, that'll be something to look forwards to......

However, I'm really not looking forwards to the reams of (actual and virtual) newsprint that will be given over, between now and May, to whom may or may not have their nose marginally in front in any particular poll.

It is terminally tedious.

[ChillDoubt]

What did the polls say before the last European elections mikey?