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Probabilities

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bednobs | 12:01 Sun 17th Mar 2013 | ChatterBank
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following on from the question the other day regarding russian roulette which i found fascinating, can anyone tell me the probability if you had 2 children of having a boy and a girl. Does the probability change, of say you had 5 boys already of your next one being a girl (taking out condsiderations such as things that are said to alter the by/girl ration globally and assuming there is always a 50% chance of either)
my common sense tells .me that it's always 50% of having a boy or a girl next, even if you've had 5 boys already, but my common sense isn't always that sensible
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Yes. In two births you can have: Boy:Girl Girl:Boy Boy:Boy Girl: Girl So you can see there is one chance in the four possibilities of two boys (or indeed of two girls) but two chances of one of each.
17:50 Sun 17th Mar 2013
Yes quite true. The answer is simple.

But bednobs's original question raised a number of points beyond the simple answer. As well as this the later comment (about the odds of the next child being anything other than 50:50 as a result of the "two in a row" complication) warranted further explanation. Very often I believe simply supplying the correct answer alone is not very helpful. Hopefully the explanations provided by various people which were provided as the discussion widened has helped bednobs understand the reasoning which leads to the answer.
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quite NJ. thanks everyone

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