Covid19 [C19] Infection Rates...?

[birdie1971]

Can anyone help me here? I'm trying to understand why 'lockdown' has been imposed on the North West of England. I read in the media that infection rates have increased there but I can't seem to get any info on what this means.

As the number of detected infected people goes up, is this just the result of more and better testing? It stands to reason that the more you test, the more you'll find in a pandemic scenario with most people being either asymptomatic or moderately unwell.

Are hospitals in the NW seeing more seriously ill C19 patients?

If it's the former (more people being detected but showing no or mild symptoms) then surely this is a good thing? It demonstrates that herd immunity is kicking in doesn't it? If it's the latter (a spike in critical C19 hospitalisations) then that's a real problem.

But which is it?

[THECORBYLOON]

Is it not the fact that the numbers infected per 100,000 are increasing and the rate at which they are increasing that is the issue?

If those figures are out of kilter with those in other areas or England in general, action needs to be taken to nip it in the bud and prevent a rapid spread.

[New Judge]

//If those figures are out of kilter with those in other areas or England in general, action needs to be taken to nip it in the bud and prevent a rapid spread.//

And how long do think imposing, lifting, reimposing (often at short notice) restrictions will continue before either (a) there is serious civil unrest, (b) the country runs out of money or (c) both occur?

The nation needs to accept, sooner rather than later, that this virus will spread until it's good and ready to give up. Nothing short of a complete lockdown (and we haven't had one of those) will prevent that - and even that's not guaranteed to succeed. Are the people advising the PM among the direct descendants of those who tried to persuade King Canute (or Knud?) that he could control the tide?

[Peter Pedant]

// That can't all be put down to increased testing,//

erm yeah I neva understood that bit - suppose it is 2: 1000
and you test 1000 - you expect 2
and if you test 10 000 you expect 20 and all are 2: 1000

even a complete innumerate should not say - oh oh it has gone up by eighteen and that wouldnt have happened if they had just done a thousand

me probably - someone on AB will understand and explain

[THECORBYLOON]

PP, CHRIS wrote, "Testing rates aren't rising dramatically, Birdie. If you test 10% more people, but get 200% more positive results, it's clear that something is going very wrong."

Clearly he is saying if the increased number of positives is disproportionate to the increase in tests, the rate per 100,000 folk increases.

[Peter Pedant]

the central problem is that Trump said if you test more
the rate will go up - so starp testing and problem goes away
and AB being agreeable pro-trumpies to a man ( or leddy ) (*)
pass it all on verbatim.
erm not Chris of course - sozza Chris


(*) he can do no wrong - I swallow every ridicuous phrase and repeat them as tho they are words of God from high - - an ABer