The Newport West By-Election

[ichkeria]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-47786885

This was in the end the “expected” result, ie a Labour hold with a reduced majority on a reduced turnout.
Of note though was the large decrease in percentage of vote for the two main parties: UKIP, Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems, all increased their actual vote while Renew, standing for the first time, polled respectably.
Is there anything to be read into this?
I haven’t done any research to determine whether this sort of thing is normal in by-elections.

[agchristie]

Job done for Labour but a significant chunk of their majority taken which must be of concern.

[Spicerack]

I wouldn't read too much into the reduced turnout. The weather was atrocious.

[ichkeria]

I don’t think the reduced turnout was odd. That IS normal for by-elections. And one of the things that makes them hard to assess.

[Togo]

Ukip quadrupled its vote. Labour lost 3,707 votes. Bear in mind that at by elections people are liable to vote for a "local" candidate or on "local" issues. Come a G.E. those parameters do not hold so much sway and I would expect even more migration to the Brexit candidates.

[dannyk13]

ich, by-elections are notorious for irregular results.

[agchristie]

//The weather was atrocious.//

Doesn't matter for postal votes though ;-)

[ichkeria]

The thing is though, as I said the result doesn’t appear irregular at all: the most interesting thing I can find is the support for smaller parties, but I can’t even be sure that’s abnormal. As for “migrating to the Brexit candidates” there was at least as much migration to non Brexit candidates as far as one can see: ie Renew and Lib Dems and that’s not including the extra Green and PC votes. If I was in Newport and wanted to cast a “Remain” protest vote I think I’d go with one of the first two. But even these votes don’t tell us much on such a small turnout.

[agchristie]

Ich,nothing particularly irregular or abnormal.

Labour hold expected and not a great deal to read into anything else as such.

[david small]

People still voting for the death of democracy. They never learn, and deserve the consequences.

[ludwig]

//the most interesting thing I can find is the support for smaller parties//

Disillusionment with the larger parties partly because of the ongoing Brexit fiasco. It'll probably revert to normal in a general election.

[Kromovaracun]

What's Renew? I've not heard of them.

Or did TIG change their name again...

[New Judge]

Two things surprise me:

1. That 37% of the electorate bothered to vote at all (regardless of the weather).

2. That over 70% of them voted for candidates of the two parties who stood on a GE manifesto of taking the UK out of the EU when between them they seem to be conspiring to do all they can to prevent it. (Newport is estimated to have voted 54% to leave in the referendum).

It’s perhaps fortunate that voting is now a waste of time. I wonder how long it will before abstaining catches on.

[ichkeria]

The Renew Party: started before TIG and would be an obvious ally

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renew_Party

[gollob]

Normally in by elections the swing is nearly always away from the government so Labour should have won this seat with an increased majority but this is not a normal by election with Brexit blotting the result

[Hopkirk]

UKIP's vote collapsed at the last election, probably because people felt it was already 'job done'.
An increase in their vote is not surprising then, though with Nigel Garage disowning them I doubt they can build much on it.

[Old_Geezer]

Never understood why folk kept claiming that UKIP's job was done.
(But maybe they were prophesying it's shift in position when Farage left.)

[agchristie]

// I doubt they can build much on it.//

With special adviser Tommy Robinson around who knows!!