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There Is No Way That This Is Achievable

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dave50 | 11:32 Fri 19th Oct 2018 | News
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45899580
A ban on sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2032? It is absolutely ludicrous and no doubt the UK government will want to take the lead to show how green we are. The environmentalists wont be happy until they have destroyed the UK economy. Donald Trump was correct when he said the majority of them had a political agenda, most of them are anti capitalist fanatics and are using climate change issues for their own ends.
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If anything, moving away from fossil fuels would benefit the UK economy, by reducing reliance on overseas imports of oil while investing in home-developed renewable technologies. This is why China has become one of the world leaders in renewable tech -- not because they care for the environment, particularly, but because it makes sound economic sense.

Apart from that, your analysis is spot-on...
interesting. failing grayling, by halting most rail electrification schemes and forcing the industry down the hybrid route, has committed the rail industry to diesel engined trains for at least the next 30-40 years, and killed any hope of more electrification in that time.

oh and no mention of HGVs which I assume can carry on belching NO2 and particulates?
It's the old 'high stakes' gambit. Go in asking for much more than you want as a shock tactic and hopefully achieve somewhere near your actual target.
Is it possible?
Maybe, but will need investments in infrastructure.
Next week I'm in Dresden addressing a bunch of car makers and component suppliers about the changes needed to make it happen, and the implications.

I was with Audi a couple of weeks ago. They aim to have 30% of their cars electric by 2025.

The new emissions regulations (World Light Vehicle Test Protocol) WLTP are driving the industry that way.

All that is so much guff, however.

The real point is that at some point in the future, the price of electric vehicles will have fallen; the charging infrastructure will be in place; the vehicle range will be extended; the tax regime modified and societal attitudes will have changed to the point where buying a fossil-fuel-powered vehicle will simply not make sense from a financial position, an ethical position, or a performance and comfort perspective.

That's what happens in developing countries as GDP per head reaches around USD10,000. People simply switch away from two-wheelers to 4-wheeled vehicles.

That is what will happen in the auto world. Currently electric vehicles make up about 6% of new car sales. At some point, that will switch.

The only question is when this will happen; not 'if'.

It's what happened with the switch from vinyl to CD and from CD to streaming. It just became easier and cheaper.

My bet is that the switch will take place at some time in the 2025-2030 period.

As for ruining the UK economy, no. If electrification is the future – and everyone involved in the transportation sector knows it is – then driving development and innovation in that area will benefit the economy, not harm it.

The 2040 date was behind most other developed (and developing) economies. That would mean the UK would end up importing the technologies that others have developed.

With a more ambitious date, we stand a chance of developing those technologies first.

If one wants to drive change in society, the only way is through legislation. People (on the whole) don't like change, and prefer to stick with the old way of doing things, because it is easier and safer.

Legislation with strong enforcement forces things to change.
Sometimes life is more important than money and politics. You should care about the environment, it's a perfect habitat for you, we're changing it.
//the tax regime modified //

Already is. A half decent electric vehicle is over 40K so what does the Government do? Oh yes introduce an envy tax of an additional £300 a year for all cars over 40K. No tax breaks for electric then.
What as happened to the hydrogen driven car? It is much more environmentally friendly.
//we're changing it.//

Depends entirely on which scientists you believe.

Being asthmatic I would love to see the end to fossil fuels plus it has the added advantage of putting the Arabs back in their tents. But it just is not going to happen in the short term. Batteries are simply not good enough(an they are far from 'green'), it needs a totally new method of storage to be invented which isnt likely to happen in the immediate future.
good, well-informed post, IJKLM.

Electric cars look like the future (though perfectly possible that some even more attractive alternative will appear before it happens). British industry won't be helped by clinging to dinosaurs: you need to be ahead of the play, not still manufacturing buggy whips..
Nothing wrong with electric cars - I'd love a decent one. However the batteries are simply useless unless you just drive about town.

Add to that just pushing cars to it is pointless unless you tackle buses lorries and most of all Ships.
14 years to build more power stations or find another transportable power source and get the logistics in place. Might happen. But unsure it's worth it. One assumes that the ban is only on new vehicles.
As I said, the tax regime wil be changed. There are experiments with changing the purchase taxes on vehicles and the annual taxation rate based on emissions.

That wil extend as governments seek to drive electric vehicle ownership.

As to hydrogen power, that really is electrification. The hydrogen stores energy, just like a battery. In the case of hydrogen, the energy is chemical and derives from a fuel cell that converts the hydrogen to water and at the same time generates the electricity to power the motors.

Absolutely, there are technological and financial challenges. That's why we'll be waiting a decade for the change to make any sense.

But the effort (and financial resources) being put into these things is huge.

Why? because we can't go on burning fossil fuel to drive our transportation systems indefintely.
//However the batteries are simply useless unless you just drive about town. //

they're also not much good if you don't own your own off-street parking. unless that is, you own half a mile of cable and the council are ok with you running it out if you can't park near your house......
//As I said, the tax regime wil be changed. There are experiments with changing the purchase taxes on vehicles and the annual taxation rate based on emissions.//

And I I said, but you ignored, the Government did this but now has sneaked a £300 tax on them by taxing cars over £40K and since any half decent electric care is over that they get their money.

If you really think Governments will give away the fuel tax revenue then you are very much mistaken.
That is very true Mushroom.

This really hasn't been thought through at all, but then why would it be - The Government all travel around courtesy of our tax and the greens have an anti car anti capitalist mentality so really dont care about the average punter trying to get to work.
YoungMaf
I didn't ignore it. I spoke about the future not the past.

The current UK government is strongly anti-renewables. They have removed subsidies for domestic renewables, and as you note, for these vehicles.

I expect that there will be changes to the tax regime, perhaps under different governments in the future.

im not techy on electric cars, are the batteries recyclable..what do they contain are we going to see landfills full of toxic car batteries ?
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Yes and 50 years on when electric cars are the norm, the environmentalists will be jumping up and down demanding that electric cars be banned because disposing of old batteries is damaging the environment. You will never win with these people.
//If electrification is the future – and everyone involved in the transportation sector knows it is..//

except on the railways, it seems. this is the future, according to failing grayling:-
https://www.railmagazine.com/news/rail-features/flex-and-flexibility
not only is not achievable I don't think it's desirable. Using fossil fuels to generate electricity wastes 80% of the energy that could be got by using the fuel directly. OK it cleans up the towns but the emissions go somewhere.

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