If Brexit Doesn't Happen..

[ludwig]

..will an angry electorate deliver yet another shock result in the form of a Labour victory at the next election in order to punish the Tories that a) gave them the referendum in the first place for purely self serving reasons and then b) Conspired to weasel their way out of implementing the result when it turned out to be the one they weren't expecting ?

Anything seems possible in these unpredictable times.

[Old_Geezer]

Well thankfully it won't be tested since Brexit will happen; otherwise you might get a shock. Much like some did when the referendum result came in.

[Kromovaracun]

If things continue as they are, it is very difficult (as ichkeria mentioned) to imagine Labour recovering their position in Scotland. Save any major disasters, I think we're safe in assuming that's going to be SNP land for at least a couple more election cycles.

What is not inconceivable, though, is the prospect of Corbyn forming an alliance with the SNP. Ed Miliband was offered this multiple times during the last election and refused - had he accepted, he would probably be Prime Minister now.

Of course, the SNP are in a much stronger position now than they were before 2015, so if they make a similar offer to last time it will be with more strings attached, and whether it goes through would depend on the Labour team who are negotiating it.

On the one hand, SNP make it much easier for Labour to win office - but will probably ask for another Indyref in return (assuming it hasn't already happened). On the other hand, SNP have also reached their peak strength. They cannot win any more seats than they already have, and it's only a matter of time before their position weakens.

So all things considered I'd say a Labour win in the next election is very possible - but not on the party's strength alone. I also think the likelihood sharply diminishes in the event that the govt waits until 2020 to have the election, rather than calling one in the nearer future.

[ichkeria]

The UKIP second places:

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ukip-came-second-in-120-constituencies-in-2015-will-this-be-a-springboard-for-the-party-in-2020/

[ichkeria]

Thing is Kromo The Tories used the manufactured ' threat' of a Labour SNP 'pact' to spook Middle England, with a massive mail shot effort in selected constituencies. And it worked. The prospect of Sturgebyn in 2020 would have them running to the Malverns and the North Downs :-)

[jim360]

"Well thankfully it won't be tested since Brexit will happen..."

Yes, well, but since this question was about what if it didn't, I can be forgiven for exploring that particular scenario.

And yes, I'm sure a shock is possible. Especially when we are still so far from the election anyway.

[Kromovaracun]

Ichkeria - Labour command very little of the Middle England vote anyway, and I don't think Corbyn has a snowball's chance in hell of improving that situation. If he does make an alliance with Sturgeon, he will lose relatively few votes from what he already has and gain enough seats to form a majority.

(For a price, of course. And if it is still Corbyn leading the party by this time, I sincerely doubt he is competent enough negotiator to come out of this well.)

[Peter Pedant]

yeah if I didnt answer this ....


if Brexit doesnt happen will the electorate vote in a govt where Brexit DOES happen ? yeah probably

[ichkeria]

Corbyn needs to win seats in England if he has any chance of winning an election. Any pact with the SNP would have to come after an election, but it seems inconceivable in any case. At the moment.